Key Highlights

  • XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) lost 48.36% on October 26, 2026, the largest fall in the day's data, after Lula's runoff win sent Brazil's Ibovespa down 13.88% and the real down 8.21% in published market data.
  • iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ) fell 19.82% at the close, with other quotes at about 21% and 26% depending on timing, and Nu Holdings fell 16.95% after dropping 20.42% intraday in published market data.
  • Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) dropped 13.99% and its preferred ADR 15.43% as investors priced policy risk for state-linked companies, while TIM fell 12.42% and Telefonica Brasil 12.35% in published market data on the dates cited.
  • Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO) tumbled 13.15% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock, tying the call to the company's decision not to raise score prices, the only non-Brazil name in the five in published market data.

XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP): Down 48.36%, the Sharpest Fall

XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) closed down 48.36% on October 26, 2026 after trading about 50.41% lower in the premarket. The move is the largest among the stocks covered in the day's market data. It came as Brazil's runoff result reached markets: the Ibovespa fell 13.88% to 176,608.23, the B3 circuit breaker triggered for the first time since March 2020, and the real fell 8.21% to 5.4027 per dollar. No company announcement was found for the day, so the move is attributed to the election outcome and the reaction in Brazilian assets, not to a statement from the company. Premarket quotes had shown a still larger fall, so the closing price was slightly less severe than the opening indications. A brokerage and wealth platform earns fees and interest from client activity, assets under custody and credit, all of which depend on local markets and rates. When investors fear policy change, those drivers can weaken together. A US-listed ADR adds currency risk, because dollar returns fall when the real falls.

iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ): Down 19.82% With the Ibovespa

Lula won the presidential runoff with 51.79% of the vote in a result described as a surprise, and markets reacted on October 26, 2026. Brazilian markets reacted immediately: the Ibovespa fell 13.88% to 176,608.23, and the B3 exchange triggered its first circuit breaker since March 2020. The real fell 8.21% to 5.4027 per dollar, the biggest daily drop since 1999. Brazil's five-year credit default swap spread rose 26% to 151.67 basis points, which means the cost of insuring Brazilian debt against default increased sharply. Bolsonaro was reported to have refused to concede, which adds political uncertainty. These are the figures that investors in Brazilian assets will compare against in coming sessions. iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ) holds Brazilian stocks priced in reais but trades in US dollars, so a US investor's return combines the local equity move and the currency move. When the Ibovespa fell 13.88% and the real fell 8.21% against the dollar in the same session, the two effects compounded, which helps explain why the fund fell more than the local index. The 19.82% figure is the closing reading.

Nu Holdings (NYSE:NU): Down 16.95% as the Real Sank

Nu Holdings (NYSE:NU) closed down 16.95% on October 26, 2026. Earlier readings were worse: the stock was down 20.42% intraday and as much as 25% in premarket quotes, so the close is the least severe of the three. The fall followed Brazil's runoff, when the Ibovespa dropped 13.88% and the real dropped 8.21%. No company announcement dated October 26 was found, so the fall is attributed to the election shock and to currency translation, not to a new disclosure. Such a spread between readings shows how fast conditions changed. Investors who bought near the open and sold at the close faced very different results. Peers also fell sharply. A digital bank earns interest income on loans and fees on payments, mostly in local currency, but reports and trades in US dollars. When the real falls 8.21%, the dollar value of earnings in Brazil falls with it, even if customer activity is unchanged. Credit quality can also deteriorate if rates rise or if the economy slows, and funding costs can climb when Brazil's five-year credit default swap spread widens, as it did by 26% to 151.67 basis points.

Petrobras (NYSE:PBR): Down 13.99% on Policy Risk

Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) closed down 13.99% on October 26, 2026, and the preferred ADR PBR.A fell 15.43%. The telecom ADRs TIM and Telefonica Brasil lost 12.42% and 12.35%, and the Brazil ETF EWZ lost 19.82%. European companies with Brazil exposure also fell, with Telefonica in Spain down 7% to 8% and Santander down 3% to 6%. Brent crude settled near USD 115.81 in two readings, while one reading showed USD 110 to USD 112, so oil prices were not the cause. The fall followed Lula's runoff win with 51.79%. The telecom and energy ADRs therefore moved with the broader Brazil sell-off. Selling was not confined to a single industry. Petrobras is controlled by the Brazilian government, which means the president can influence investment plans, fuel pricing and dividend policy through board appointments and public statements. A change of leadership therefore changes the risk investors assign to the company even when oil prices are high.

Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO): Down 13.15% on a Downgrade

Wells Fargo downgraded Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO) on October 26, 2026, linking the call to the company's decision not to raise prices for its scores. The stock closed down 13.15%, though intraday moves ranged between about 8.6% and 14.5%, so the closing figure is the most reliable reading. Other analysts then lowered their targets, which added to the pressure. The reasoning in the Wells Fargo note was not available in the information reviewed, so the explanation here relies on the summary of the call. The downgrade followed changes to the Preferred Program, a company programme that shapes how lenders are charged for scores. The sequence matters: the pricing decision came first, the downgrade followed, and other analysts trimmed targets afterward, which compounded the drop within a single session. Fair Isaac licenses credit scores to lenders, and raising the fee per score has been a major source of revenue growth because the cost to customers is small compared with the loan being priced, while the scores are embedded in lending systems and hard to replace. Investors therefore pay a premium multiple for the ability to lift prices.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that four of the five biggest falls came from one event, Lula's surprise runoff win, which hit Brazilian equities, the real and credit at once. XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) fell most at 48.36%. iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ) fell 19.82%. Nu Holdings (NYSE:NU) fell 16.95%. Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) fell 13.99%. Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO) fell 13.15% on a downgrade. The real, credit spreads and Fair Isaac earnings on November 4, 2026 are the next catalysts. Further disclosure from Nu Holdings (NYSE:NU) would clarify the picture. Official notices from Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) remain the best guide.