Key Highlights

● SPCX shares rose 7.63% to $171.09 on Monday, October 5, on Volume of about 136 million shares, nearly 80% above normal.

● Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an overweight rating and a $300 price target on the stock.

● Musk confirmed that SpaceX is in discussions with TSMC about Terafab, a proposed $16.8 billion chip plant in Grimes County, Texas, calling them "just discussions."

● Second-quarter Revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92% from a year earlier, while capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion, of which about $15.8 billion went to AI.

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) took the number-two spot on Monday's most-active list on a second straight day of sharp gains, powered by a reaffirmed Wall Street bull case and Elon Musk's confirmation that the company is talking with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) about a giant Texas chip plant. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies rose 7.63% to $171.09 on volume of about 136 million shares, nearly 80% above normal, which translated into roughly $23 billion of stock changing hands.

What's driving the volume

The move built on Friday's rally. On October 2 the stock climbed about 7.4% to $158.96 after SpaceX completed three launches in less than 13 hours, carrying astronauts, a classified US intelligence payload and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL)'s first in-orbit AI experiment. That burst of activity was a vivid reminder of the launch cadence that underpins the company's franchise.

On Monday, two items added fuel. First, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an overweight rating and a $300 price target, implying upside of roughly 75% from Monday's close. Jonas described the shares as "cheap and getting cheaper" once growth is taken into account, arguing that SpaceX trades at about 30 times his 2028 estimate of Enterprise value to operating profit, with a growth-adjusted multiple well below that of the big AI-focused megacaps.

Second, Musk confirmed that SpaceX is in discussions with TSMC about Terafab, a proposed $16.8 billion chip plant in Grimes County, Texas, that would Supply chips for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) vehicles and SpaceX's planned orbital data centers. TSMC is reportedly exploring owning and operating a fab there, with SpaceX potentially providing Equity or guaranteed purchase commitments. Musk cautioned that these are "just discussions." TSMC shares also rose on the news. Musk separately said the company's AI unit, SpaceXAI, would be renamed SpaceXSI.

Even after the two-day surge, the stock remains well below its 52-week high of $225.64, which may have encouraged dip buyers. A broadly firm session for technology stocks helped as well: the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05% even as the 10-year Treasury Yield climbed to 5.31%, the highest since 2002, as softer jobs data eased fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. For a stock that has traded for less than four months and is already held by large index funds, news-driven days like this tend to produce outsized trading activity.

The business

SpaceX now reports three segments. Connectivity is the Starlink satellite internet service, which reached 12 million subscribers at the end of June, double the level a year earlier. Space covers rocket launches, including the Falcon fleet and the Starship development program, along with human spaceflight and government missions. AI is the newest and most capital-hungry unit, selling Cloud Computing services and building the infrastructure behind Musk's artificial intelligence ambitions.

The IPO and index status

SpaceX began trading on Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, under the ticker SPCX, after pricing its initial public offering at $135 a share. Nasdaq described the deal as a $75 billion raise at an implied valuation of about $1.77 trillion, one of the largest stock offerings ever attempted. The shares opened at $150 and closed the first day up about 19%. The company uses a dual-class structure, and Musk retains voting control through high-vote Class B shares.

Index providers moved quickly. FTSE Russell added SpaceX to the Russell 1000 under a new fast-entry rule, effective with trading on June 29. Nasdaq used its new fast-track rule for large IPOs to add the stock to the Nasdaq-100 before the open on July 7, a rule that lets qualifying mega-IPOs enter on their 15th trading day. The S&P 500 is a different story: in June, S&P Dow Jones Indices declined to change its rules, keeping its requirement that a company trade publicly for 12 months before it can be considered, so SpaceX is not yet eligible. It is not in the Dow.

Recent results and guidance

In its first Quarterly Report as a public company, released August 4, SpaceX posted second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% from a year earlier and well above the roughly $6.9 billion analysts expected. Connectivity revenue rose 66% to $4.29 billion, AI revenue jumped 247% to $2.56 billion, and Space contributed $962 million. Adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.54 billion. The company still lost $541 million, or 9 cents a share, though that was roughly half the prior-year loss.

The concern was spending. Capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion for the quarter, of which about $15.8 billion went to AI. Investors balked at the scale of that outlay relative to current AI revenue, and the stock fell sharply after the report even though the Top Line beat estimates. Musk has continued to argue that the spending will pay off, but the market has made clear it wants evidence that AI revenue can keep pace with the capital being deployed. SpaceX ended June with roughly $93.5 billion of cash plus $6.5 billion of marketable securities and did not issue formal financial guidance.

Valuation

With losses on a trailing basis, SpaceX has no meaningful price-to-earnings ratio. Measured against revenue, the valuation is steep: the $2.32 trillion Market Value is roughly 74 times second-quarter sales annualized. For comparison, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) trades at about 30 times trailing earnings, while Tesla, another Musk company priced on future potential, trades at roughly 352 times.

Bull case

Bulls see a company with dominant launch economics, a fast-growing and profitable satellite internet Business and a large cash pile to fund AI and Starship. Starlink's 12 million subscribers give it a Recurring Revenue base that is already profitable at the segment level, and the company had a $47.5 billion Backlog at the end of June. Morgan Stanley's view is that rapid growth makes the multiple less extreme than it looks.

Bear case

Skeptics point to AI spending running far ahead of AI revenue, a valuation that leaves little room for setbacks and governance concentrated in one founder. Terafab remains preliminary, and the AI Data Center strategy is unproven. Only a small fraction of shares trade freely, which can amplify swings, and lockups on pre-IPO holders begin to expire about six months after the offering.

Terafab, lockups and the road to S&P 500 eligibility

Key items include any formal agreement with TSMC on Terafab, the pace of Starship and Starlink launches, the company's third-quarter report, and the first lockup expirations, expected around December. A path to S&P 500 eligibility will not open until at least June 2027.