Investors in Green Plains Inc. (NASDAQ:GPRE) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.8% to close at US$4.07 following the release of its first-quarter results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$602m, statutory losses exploded to US$1.14 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Green Plains. View them for free.NasdaqGS:GPRE Earnings and Revenue Growth May 11th 2025

Following last week's earnings report, Green Plains' nine analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$2.49b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 70% to US$0.48. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$2.51b and US$0.54 per share in losses. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Green Plains'future looks a little different to the past, with a cut to the loss per share forecasts in particular.

See our latest analysis for Green Plains

The average price target held steady at US$9.94, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Green Plains at US$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Green Plains' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Green Plains' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Green Plains is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

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The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Green Plains' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$9.94, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Green Plains going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the  1 warning sign  we've spotted with Green Plains .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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