Major U.S. stock indexes were on pace for their second straight week of gains as of Thursday, lifting the S&P 500 to just 0.7% shy of its mid-August record high, aided by a moderation in Treasury yields that eased concerns a recent yield spike could trip up the rally. The index is up more than 13% year-to-date, underpinned by an exceptionally strong year for corporate profits, though investors remain wary of a seasonal pullback given September's historical reputation as the weakest month for U.S. stocks. This holiday-shortened week, with markets closed Monday for Labor Day, delivers the final major Inflation data before the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting. Fed funds futures suggest roughly even odds of a rate hike following Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech last month, which signalled the Central Bank may need to act if inflation fails to show sufficient progress. Friday's CPI report is Wall Street's most closely watched inflation gauge, arriving one day after PPI, with economists expecting headline CPI to accelerate to 0.4% month-on-month from July's mere 0.1% rise. Oracle reports Thursday in the week's most consequential Earnings event for the AI infrastructure trade

Monday, September 7

Market Holiday

U.S. financial markets are closed for Labor Day. No data releases or earnings are scheduled.

Tuesday, September 8

Earnings

Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY) reports in the afternoon, offering a read on fuel retail margins and convenience store spending. ABM Industries (NYSE:ABM) reports before the open, providing a Facility services and Commercial Real Estate maintenance read tied to broader corporate spending health.

Economic Data

The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism for August, prior at 99.8, opens the week's data calendar at 6:00 am ET. The index has remained a closely watched gauge of how smaller firms are absorbing elevated borrowing costs and energy price pressure. Consumer Credit for July, prior at $14.2 billion, arrives at 3:00 pm ET, offering a read on household borrowing appetite heading into the more consequential inflation data later in the week.

Wednesday, September 9

Earnings

Copart (NASDAQ:CPRT) and Cooper Companies (NASDAQ:COO) report in the afternoon, providing salvage vehicle auction and medical device reads respectively. GameStop (NYSE:GME) also reports in the afternoon, offering a consumer electronics and gaming retail signal. AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV) and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) round out Wednesday's earnings with defence Drone Technology and apparel retail reads.

Economic Data

No major data releases are scheduled Wednesday.

Thursday, September 10

Earnings

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) reports in the afternoon as the week's most consequential earnings event and a direct test for the market's AI infrastructure trade. As one of the hyperscalers spending massively to build out AI data centres, its cloud infrastructure Revenue growth and Capital Expenditure guidance will be watched closely at a moment when some of the highest-flying AI and semiconductor names have cooled off in recent weeks. Oracle's results will help determine whether the market is searching for new Leadership within the AI trade or whether the original hyperscaler narrative still has room to run.

Economic Data

Thursday delivers the first half of the week's inflation picture. PPI for August lands at 8:30 am ET, prior at 0% month-on-month and forecast to accelerate to 0.4%. Core PPI ex-food and energy is forecast at 0.3%, up from July's 0.2%, while the year-on-year headline PPI is forecast to accelerate to 5.3% from 4.7%. The producer price data gives investors their first glimpse at August's inflation trends a day ahead of Friday's more closely watched CPI release, and any upside surprise would materially raise the odds of a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Weekly jobless claims for the week ending September 5, prior at 206,000 and forecast at 208,000, provide the labour market read. Existing home sales for August, prior at 4.1 million and forecast to ease to 3.9 million, and monthly Wholesale Trade for July, prior at 0.2%, round out Thursday's calendar.

Friday, September 11

Economic Data

August CPI is the week's defining release, landing at 8:30 am ET. Headline CPI is forecast to accelerate to 0.4% month-on-month from July's 0.1% increase, with the year-on-year rate holding at 3.4%. Core CPI is forecast at 0.2% month-on-month, unchanged from July, with the year-on-year core rate expected to ease slightly to 2.4% from 2.5%. What matters most is whether this print confirms the cooling trend seen in June and July or reveals that inflation progress has stalled. A hot reading would materially raise the odds of a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, while a soft print confirming continued disinflation would support Fed Governor Waller's recently stated preference for holding rates steady. The preliminary September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, prior at 51 and forecast at 52.3, will be watched for whether consumers remain as pessimistic as recent readings have shown. The monthly Treasury balance for August, prior at -$432 billion, closes the week's data calendar.

Geopolitical Backdrop

The outbreak of renewed strikes between Iran and the US has reintroduced uncertainty over tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf, prolonging the shock to energy Supply from the region after a period of relative calm. This escalation adds a fresh layer of risk to an inflation picture already under intense scrutiny, since any further disruption to energy supply routes would directly complicate the disinflation narrative that markets are hoping Friday's CPI will confirm. Alongside the geopolitical risk, the Treasury Department begins its larger programme of Buybacks for longer-dated notes and bonds this week, an effort explicitly aimed at tamping down the rise in long-maturity yields that has weighed on equities in recent weeks. The 10-year Treasury Yield was last at 4.77%, moving away from the 5% level that investors have flagged as a troublesome threshold for Equity valuations, and the buyback programme's early effectiveness will be closely watched as a potential offset to any inflation-driven yield pressure from this week's data.

The Week in Context

Friday's CPI print is the week's single most consequential event and will largely determine whether the Fed hikes at its September 15-16 meeting. With fed funds futures suggesting roughly a coin-flip probability following Waller's dovish-leaning comments, the print carries outsized weight relative to a typical monthly release. A confirmation of the June and July cooling trend would support the case for a hold, while a hot reading, especially if PPI on Thursday also surprises to the upside, would tip sentiment decisively toward a hike. Oracle's Thursday results will simultaneously test whether the AI trade can find fresh conviction after its recent momentum unwind. Renewed Iran conflict tensions add a wildcard that could complicate the inflation narrative regardless of what Friday's data shows. Together, these three threads will determine whether the S&P 500 can close the final 0.7% gap to a fresh record high or whether September's seasonal reputation for weakness begins to assert itself.