1. FOMC Decision at 2 PM ET: Warsh Holds at 3.50-3.75%; Dot Plot Drops 2026 Cut; Three Members May Project Hike; Press Conference at 2:30 PM ET

Warsh's first FOMC decision lands at 2 PM ET, followed by his debut press conference at 2:30 PM ET. CME FedWatch prices a 97%+ probability of a hold at 3.50-3.75%, unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting. The rate itself is not the story. The March dot plot showed one cut in 2026; Goldman Sachs expects the June dot to show zero 2026 cuts, with at least three members projecting a hike. Warsh may withhold his own dot given longstanding criticism of forward guidance. The easing bias language in the statement is also expected to be dropped. BofA surveyed investors: 55% expect Warsh hawkish; BofA's own view is that "Warsh will likely lean dovish relative to the rest of the committee." Trump said before the meeting there was "no reason" to raise rates.

• The 2027 dot is more important than the 2026 dot; investors will read whether Warsh and the committee see rates staying elevated into next year, which reprices long-duration assets more meaningfully than a 2026 hike signal alone.
• Risk note: Warsh's debut press conference is the most uncertain variable in markets this week; 55% of investors expecting hawkish language into a rally means any unexpected dovishness could send equities sharply higher, and any hawkish phrasing could hit the Nasdaq immediately.

2. Tuesday's Sharp Rotation: Dow Record at 51,999 as Nasdaq Fell 1.15% and S&P Lost 0.57%; Intel -8.5%; Chips Rebound Pre-Market Wednesday

Tuesday's session was a pronounced rotation: the Dow rose 0.64% to a record 51,999.67 while the S&P 500 fell 0.57% to 7,511.35 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% to 26,376.344. Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) fell 8.5%, leading a broad chip selloff, as investors rotated from high-multiple tech into value ahead of the FOMC. Chips are rebounding Wednesday: Intel +3%+, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) +2.5%, Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) each +1.5%.

• The Dow-Nasdaq divergence is a direct read on how the market is positioning ahead of Warsh's press conference: value and cyclicals in, high-multiple tech out, a trade that reverses instantly if Warsh sounds dovish.
• Risk note: a dovish Warsh press conference would unwind Tuesday's rotation and send chips sharply higher from already-recovering pre-market levels; a hawkish tone would deepen the chip selloff into the close.

3. SpaceX Acquires Anysphere for $60 Billion in Shares; SPCX +4.5% Pre-Market Day Four; Surpassed Amazon as World's Fifth Most Valuable Company Tuesday

SpaceX confirmed it will acquire Anysphere, maker of Cursor, for $60 billion in shares, closing Q3 2026. SpaceX surpassed Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) as the world's fifth most valuable public company Tuesday. SPCX rose 4.5% pre-market Wednesday, day four of trading. The Cursor deal places SpaceX in direct competition with Anthropic and OpenAI in the AI coding market.

• SPCX gaining 4.5% on an AI coding acquisition signals the market is pricing SpaceX as an AI platform company, not a launch services business, which materially changes how the stock correlates with the broader AI trade.
• Risk note: at 57%+ above its $135 IPO price in four trading sessions, SPCX now carries substantial valuation risk tied simultaneously to Starlink growth, xAI commercialisation, and AI coding market share, three unproven-at-scale businesses priced at full optionality.

4. Iran: Trump "We'll Go Back to Bombing" at G7; Senate War Powers Vote Fails 47-48; Israeli Air Strikes in Lebanon; Hormuz Signing Friday

Trump told the G7: "If I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head." G7 leaders demanded a Lebanon ceasefire and committed to diversifying energy routes away from Hormuz; a UK-France coalition will help secure shipping once it reopens. Israeli air strikes hit two Lebanese towns Wednesday morning; Iran's FM said the war won't "fully end" until Israel withdraws from Lebanon. The Senate voted 47-48 against a war powers resolution curbing Trump's Iran strike authority; four Republicans, including Senators Cassidy and Collins, sided with Democrats. Hormuz signing is Friday in Geneva (Juneteenth, markets closed).

• Trump achieved little of stated objectives: Iran's government is intact, uranium stockpile unsurrendered, ballistic capabilities undestroyed, Hezbollah undefeated, leaving him exposed to criticism from hawks ahead of November midterms.
• Risk note: the Lebanon ceasefire is the most live operational risk between now and Friday's signing; a fresh Israeli-Hezbollah exchange could give Iran grounds to suspend the MOU before the formal ceremony.

5. May Retail Sales at 8:30 AM ET; CarMax +3.5% on EPS $1.31 vs $0.95 Estimate; La-Z-Boy +16% on 11% Retail Sales Growth

May Retail Sales land at 8:30 AM ET, two hours before the 2 PM decision. April was +0.5% MoM; the NRF Retail Monitor real-time proxy showed core retail sales +0.39% MoM in May, +6.98% YoY. CarMax (NYSE: KMX) rose more than 3.5% pre-market after fiscal Q1 EPS of $1.31 against a $0.95 estimate. La-Z-Boy (NYSE: LZB) surged 16% after retail sales grew 11% YoY in fiscal Q4, alongside an EPS beat.

• CarMax and La-Z-Boy, both discretionary spending names, both beating on the same morning signals consumer spending is holding up better than the housing starts collapse suggested.
• Risk note: a May Retail Sales miss this morning, two hours before the 2 PM FOMC decision, would create simultaneous downward pressure on rates and equities, complicating the read on Warsh's tone.

6. AST SpaceMobile +6% on Three New Satellite Launches via SpaceX Falcon 9; GM-Lockheed $16 Billion Defense Partnership; Snap Opens AR Glasses Pre-Orders at $2,195

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) jumped 6% after launching three new satellites Wednesday via SpaceX Falcon 9. Lionsgate (NYSE: LION) fell more than 5% after Netflix denied acquisition reports; the stock had risen 14% Tuesday on the speculation. General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) announced a defense manufacturing partnership, with Lockheed investing $9 billion in facilities over four years and GM spending $7 billion in R&D; the Pentagon facilitated the deal. Snap (NYSE:SNAP) opened pre-orders for its $2,195 AR glasses, competing with Apple and Meta for post-smartphone wearable market share.

• The GM-Lockheed partnership is the clearest corporate expression of the Iran war's lasting defence manufacturing effect: $16 billion in committed spending triggered by a conflict that began in late February.
• Risk note: Snap's $2,195 AR glasses enter a market where both Apple Vision Pro and Meta's Ray-Ban devices have struggled to achieve mass adoption; premium wearables remain a technology in search of a use case.

7. Oil Little Changed at $76.69; Brent at $79.80; G7 to Diversify Energy Routes Away from Hormuz; Geneva Signing Friday (Juneteenth)

Oil is little changed Wednesday: WTI at $76.69 (+0.84%) and Brent at $79.80 (+1.06%), with investors weighing the Iran deal against Hormuz uncertainty. The G7 committed to diversifying energy routes away from the Strait, acknowledging the chokepoint remains a structural risk regardless of the deal. The MOU signing is Friday in Geneva; U.S. markets are closed for Juneteenth, so any pricing reaction waits until Monday June 22, the same day the Nasdaq-100 rebalance takes effect.

• Oil recovering slightly from last week's lows while Hormuz remains technically closed illustrates the market's balancing act: pricing eventual reopening supply while factoring in Trump's "we'll go back to bombing" warning and Iran's Lebanon precondition.
• Risk note: the coincidence of the Geneva signing, Juneteenth markets closed, and the Nasdaq-100 rebalance all falling on June 19-22 creates a structural liquidity event next week regardless of how the Iran deal is received.