1. Warsh's First FOMC Begins Today: 98.6% Hold, But Dot Plot and Press Conference Are the Real Events; Housing Starts Hit Six-Year Low at 1.177 Million

The FOMC two-day meeting begins today; Warsh's rate decision, dot plot, and first press conference as Fed Chair are due Wednesday at 2 PM ET. CME FedWatch prices a 98.6% probability of a hold at 3.50-3.75%. The March dot plot showed one cut in 2026, a path that no longer reflects committee thinking; the key question is whether enough policymakers pencil in a December hike to make that the median. Warsh is expected to lean away from Powell's detailed forward guidance, emphasising data-dependence. Wednesday also brings May Retail Sales at 8:30 AM ET. Warsh walks into his first meeting with inflation elevated, CPI at 4.2% and PPI at a four-year high last week, and the housing market now visibly cracking:

May Housing Starts fell 15.4% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million, the lowest since May 2020 and well below the 1.43 million consensus, confirming high mortgage rates are materially dampening builder activity. Gold rose 0.38% to $4,368.10 as the Iran deal cooled near-term rate hike expectations.

  • The 2027 dot will carry more signal than the 2026 dot; investors will be looking for whether Warsh and the committee see rates staying elevated into next year, which would reprice long-duration assets more meaningfully than a 2026 hike signal alone.
  • Risk note: Warsh's communication style at his debut press conference is the most uncertain variable this week; any phrasing that reads as unexpectedly hawkish or unexpectedly dovish relative to the data will trade more sharply than in a normal FOMC cycle because markets have no established baseline for his tone.

2. Monday Record Close and Tuesday Pre-Market: Dow at 51,671, Nasdaq +3.07%; Futures Flat; Oil at Three-Month Low of $78.52

The Dow closed at a record 51,671.03 (+0.92%), the S&P 500 gained 1.65% to 7,554.29, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.07% to 26,683.94, its best day since March 31. European Stoxx 600 closed at an all-time high and hovered just above it Tuesday morning; Asian shares rose for a second day. Tuesday futures are flat. WTI fell 2.76% to $78.52, a three-month low, though tanker operators said they remain cautious on Hormuz transit pending formal Friday reopening; Brent fell 2.51% to $81.08. Nat Gas rose 1.24% to $3.186.

  • Oil at a three-month low and tanker operators still cautious on Hormuz signals physical shipping hasn't moved yet; the energy deflation trade is priced ahead of actual supply normalisation.
  • Risk note: futures flat after two strong sessions signals the rally is approaching a natural pause point; the next directional move is more likely to come from Warsh's press conference Wednesday than any Iran headline.

3. SpaceX (SPCX) at $212 Pre-Market, 57% Above IPO Price, +10% Day Three; Greenshoe Pushes Total Raise to $85.7 Billion

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) traded at approximately $212 pre-market, up 10% and 57% above its $135 IPO price after gaining 19% on Friday and 20%+ on Monday. The greenshoe was exercised, pushing the total raise to $85.7 billion. At Tuesday's pre-market price, SPCX's implied market cap approaches $2.77 trillion, potentially surpassing Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) as the world's fifth-largest public company.

  • Three consecutive daily gains of 19%, 20%+, and 10% at a $2.7 trillion market cap prices Starlink, xAI, and Starship at full commercial optionality simultaneously.
  • Risk note: at 57% above IPO price in three trading sessions, SPCX is running well ahead of any fundamental anchor; the first post-IPO earnings release, scheduled September 2, will be the first real valuation test for the stock.

4. Nvidia's $20 Billion Bond: First Debt Deal in Five Years, $85 Billion in Orders; AI Borrowing Wave Reaches Investment-Grade Credit Markets

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) priced a $20 billion investment-grade bond offering Monday, its first return to debt capital markets since a $5 billion deal in June 2021. The seven-part offering carries maturities out to 2056 and attracted approximately $85 billion in orders, four times the deal size; Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley are bookrunners. Proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes including refinancing. Oracle, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and SpaceX have all tapped capital markets for AI infrastructure spending in recent weeks, making Nvidia's bond the latest data point in a wave of AI-driven corporate borrowing.

  • $85 billion in orders for a $20 billion bond confirms the bond market is as enthusiastic about the AI buildout as the equity market.
  • Risk note: Nvidia adding $20 billion in debt after Oracle's $40 billion raise and SpaceX's $85.7 billion IPO means AI infrastructure capital formation is accelerating simultaneously in equity, debt, and IPO markets; if any of these assets disappoint on returns, the leveraged AI trade faces a simultaneous multi-market reassessment.

5. Nasdaq-100 June Rebalance: CoreWeave, Rocket Lab, Astera Labs, Nebius, Teradyne Added; Zscaler, Charter, Cognizant Removed, Effective June 22

Five companies will be added to the Nasdaq-100 effective June 22: Astera Labs (NASDAQ: ALAB), CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV), Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), and Teradyne (NASDAQ: TER). Five will be removed: Charter Communications (NASDAQ: CHTR), Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH), Insmed (NASDAQ: INSM), Verisk Analytics (NASDAQ: VRSK), and Zscaler (NASDAQ: ZS).

  • The five additions are uniformly AI-infrastructure and space-economy names, confirming the two themes the Nasdaq-100 is now formally recognising as large-cap structural.
  • Risk note: forced passive buying in ALAB, CRWV, NBIS, RKLB, and TER and forced selling in CHTR, CTSH, INSM, VRSK, and ZS ahead of June 22 will create mechanical price pressure in both directions independent of fundamentals in the days before the effective date.

6. G7 Day Two in Evian: Iran MOU "All Signed," Hormuz Open Friday, But Nuclear Talks and Lebanon Remain Contentious

Trump said the MOU with Iran is "all signed" and the Strait of Hormuz will be "completely open" by Friday's Geneva signing. Nuclear talks continue separately; sanctions relief is contingent on progress. The U.S., Iran, and Israel disagree on what the pact means for Israel's occupation of Lebanon, with Israeli Defense Minister Katz saying the IDF stays in regional security zones. France and Britain are working on a naval Hormuz mission, though Iran has said it will not accept Western navies in the zone. G7 discussions on Ukraine, China trade imbalances, and AI governance continue through Wednesday.

  • The Lebanon disagreement is the most structurally dangerous unresolved issue: if Israel interprets the deal as excluding Lebanon and continues operations there, Iran could invoke the agreement's cessation-of-hostilities clause to restart hostilities.
  • Risk note: the Geneva signing on Friday is a U.S. public holiday (Juneteenth, markets closed), meaning any negative reaction to the deal's terms will not appear in U.S. market prices until Monday June 22, the same day as the Nasdaq-100 rebalance.

7. Pre-Market Movers: Dave & Buster's -14% on Big EPS Miss; Huntsman -10% on Olin Merger; Robinhood +2% on Layoffs

Dave & Buster's (NASDAQ: PLAY) plunged 14% after reporting fiscal Q1 EPS of 16 cents against a StreetAccount consensus of 60 cents; revenue of $559.2 million missed the $580.6 million estimate and comparable store sales fell 5.4% year-over-year. Huntsman (NYSE: HUN) fell 10% after agreeing to merge with Olin (NYSE: OLN) in an all-stock deal to form OlinHuntsman, with the deal expected to close in the first half of 2027; Olin slipped 1%. Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) rose more than 2% after announcing it would lay off approximately 10% of its workforce, with the company expecting roughly $20 million in severance and benefits charges.

  • Dave & Buster's EPS miss of 44 cents versus consensus, with comparable sales falling 5.4%, signals a meaningful consumer discretionary softening in experiential entertainment, a category previously resilient through this inflation cycle.
  • Risk note: Robinhood rising on a layoff announcement reflects the market's current preference for margin discipline over growth investment, a read that connects to how Warsh will frame the labour market at Wednesday's press conference.