Key Highlights

● Gold fell 1.45% to $4,008.79 an ounce in Thursday's session.

● US PCE prices rose 0.5% in September, the largest monthly gain since March.

● Markets price roughly an 80% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

● Newmont's third-quarter all-in sustaining costs were $1,545 per ounce.

Gold fell 1.45% to US$4,008.79 per troy ounce in Thursday's session on 29 October, slipping to the edge of the US$4,000 mark as investors absorbed a fresh batch of US inflation and growth data. A weaker gold price matters to producers such as Newmont (NYSE:NEM), though what the company earns depends as much on its costs as on the metal.

The fall of US$58.99 leaves gold down 0.38% on the week and 3.56% on the month, and 7.18% lower since the start of the year. The rest of the precious-metals group fell harder: silver dropped 3.45% to US$52.09 an ounce and platinum fell 3.64% to US$1,483.80.

Rate Hike Bets Outweigh Inflation Protection

Gold is often bought as a hedge against inflation, but the data released this week point the other way. Inflation that stays high raises the odds that the Federal Reserve keeps tightening, and gold, which pays no interest, loses appeal when rates rise. On Thursday that second effect won out.

The Data That Moved the Market

The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.5% in September, its largest monthly increase since March, and annual inflation climbed to 3.6%. Core PCE inflation also accelerated, to 3.1% from a year earlier. Third-quarter GDP grew at an annualised 3.4%, beating expectations of 3.2%.

Together, the figures strengthened the case for tighter policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets continue to price an approximately 80% chance of a rate hike in December. Oil, which has fed the inflation story, eased after reports that US Vice President JD Vance had sought to revive peace negotiations with Iran, but gold still closed lower.

The Fed Holds, With Two Votes for a Hike

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10 to 2 on Wednesday to hold the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4%. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point rise. The statement described activity as expanding at a strong pace, said inflation remains elevated and gave no guidance on the next move.

Chair Kevin Warsh also suggested the Fed could reduce the number of rate decisions each year from eight to six. That adds a layer of uncertainty about when the next move will come, just days before the US midterm elections.

What It Means for Gold Miners and Royalty Companies

Newmont is the world's largest gold producer. Its third-quarter 2026 results, reported on 22 October, showed attributable gold production of 1.30 million ounces, an average realised gold price of US$4,317 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs of US$1,545 per ounce. The company lowered its 2026 cost guidance and kept production guidance at about 5.9 million attributable ounces. That leaves a margin of roughly US$2,770 per ounce at the realised price, and about US$2,460 even at Thursday's lower level.

Costs are the pressure point. Rising oil prices and inflation could push unit costs higher toward year-end, and Newmont's operations span several countries, so local-currency exposure is part of its profile.

Royalty and streaming companies have a different profile. Franco-Nevada (NYSE:FNV) reported second-quarter 2026 sales of 132,405 gold equivalent ounces, revenue of US$580.9 million and an average gold price of US$4,517 per ounce. Gold made up 70% of revenue, and precious metals 86%. Royalty models carry limited exposure to operating costs but depend on the mines that pay them.

Hedging, cost inflation and acquisitions all influence share prices independently of the metal, so neither company moves one-for-one with gold.

Gold Watch: Midterms, the Fed and Oil Diplomacy

The next tests are the US midterm elections on 3 November, further Fed communication, particularly on any December move and on the proposed cut in meetings, and the next US inflation data. Oil prices and Middle East diplomacy remain relevant because of their effect on inflation.

Gold could find support if inflation slows, if the Fed adopts a softer tone, if bond yields ease or if oil falls further. It could stay under pressure if more policymakers dissent in favour of a hike, if inflation stays high or if the December rate-hike odds rise.