Key Highlights

● Copper fell 1.03% to $6.58 a pound in Thursday's session.

● The Yangshan copper premium hit $205 a tonne, its highest in over a decade.

● COMEX stocks exceeded 714,000 tonnes in October, about 70% of visible global inventories.

● Copper is up 29.24% from a year ago and 15.70% this year.

Copper fell 1.03% to US$6.5777 a pound in Thursday's session on 29 October, ending a four-session winning streak as traders took profits after recent gains. The pullback is a pause in a strong year for producers such as Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), the largest listed US copper miner.

Copper is down US$0.0683 on the day but remains up 3.33% on the week, 0.23% on the month, 15.70% since the start of the year and 29.24% from a year ago. The metal is still near a two-week high, well above the five-week low of US$6.35 reached in late October and below the all-time high of US$6.85 set in September.

Profit-Taking Against a Tight Physical Market

The price action splits into two stories. On screen, sentiment cooled on Thursday as traders locked in gains. In the physical market, supply is tightening, and the competition for metal is intensifying both inside and outside China.

Why the AI Trade Matters

Copper has been drawn into the artificial intelligence trade because of its use in data centres and power infrastructure. Thursday's dip came as disappointing technology earnings, including from Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), revived concerns over the sustainability of AI investment, which weighed on risk appetite. Earlier gains reflected renewed interest in that same theme as investors waited for results from large technology companies.

China Pulls in More Metal

The physical signals are firm. The Yangshan copper premium, a key indicator of Chinese demand for imported copper, has surged to US$205 a tonne, its highest in more than a decade. That signals that buyers in China are paying more to secure metal, with labour strikes at major miners and tight supply adding to the competition for cargoes.

Tariffs Pull Metal Toward the United States

US trade policy is reshaping where copper sits. A 50% tariff on specified semi-finished copper products is in effect, while tariffs on refined copper of 15% from 1 January 2027 and 30% from 1 January 2028 have been proposed but not imposed. It is unclear whether the US will tariff refined imports before the midterm elections.

Traders have moved metal toward American warehouses in anticipation. COMEX stocks exceeded 714,000 tonnes on 14 October, about 70% of visible global inventories, against 273,750 tonnes on the London Metal Exchange. That diversion tightens availability in other markets and raises the risk of re-exports if the refined tariff is delayed or cut.

What It Means for Copper Miners

Freeport-McMoRan said in an operational update on 2 October that third-quarter production was about 830 million pounds, with sales expected near 750 million pounds and a realised price above US$6.50 a pound. The Grasberg mill averaged about 67% of pre-September 2025 rates, the Indonesian smelter restarted in late August and Production Block 1S is targeted to restart by mid-2027. Freeport also sells gold and molybdenum alongside copper.

Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO) reported third-quarter results on 20 October. Copper production was 235,501 tonnes, down 0.8% from a year earlier, net income was US$1,801.8 million, and the average COMEX price for the quarter was US$6.48 a pound. Nine-month production was 700,770 tonnes, down 2.8%, and operating cash cost net of by-product credits was US$0.09 a pound. Output fell slightly even as prices rose, which shows that volume matters as much as the metal price.

Producers differ in cost levels, by-product credits, hedging, currency exposure and project timing, so a higher copper price does not guarantee higher earnings or share prices.

Copper Watch: Tech Earnings, Warehouse Stocks and Tariff Decisions

Earnings from large technology companies will shape the AI-demand narrative. COMEX and London warehouse stocks matter because the regional split has become a central issue, and any US announcement on refined copper tariffs ahead of the midterms could move prices sharply. Operating updates from Grasberg and from Chilean and Peruvian producers will also matter.

Copper could firm if data-centre enthusiasm returns, if ex-US supply tightens further, if a major mine suffers new disruption or if the US moves faster on a refined tariff. It could weaken if another technology sell-off hits risk appetite, if exchange inventories rise or if tariffs are delayed.