Key Highlights

● Silver fell 3.45% to $52.09 an ounce in Thursday's session.

● The metal is down 13.75% on the month and 26.89% since January.

● Markets price roughly an 80% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

● Silver is about 57% below its January record of $121.62 an ounce.

Silver fell 3.45% to US$52.09 an ounce in Thursday's session on 29 October, reaching its lowest level since November 2025 as investors weighed a fresh batch of US inflation and growth data. The drop of US$1.86 was steeper than gold's 1.45% fall, extending a month in which the metal has given up 13.75%.

Silver is down 4.56% on the week and 26.89% since the start of the year, though it remains 6.42% above a year ago. At US$52.09, it is about 57% below its January record of US$121.62. With gold at US$4,008.79, the gold-to-silver ratio stands near 77, a reminder that silver swings harder than gold in both directions.

A Market Pulled by Money and by Industry

Silver is two assets in one. It is a precious metal that responds to interest rates and inflation, and an industrial input whose demand depends on factories and solar manufacturers. Today the monetary side dominated, while the industrial side offered little to cushion the fall.

The Data Behind the Sell-Off

The US personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.5% in September, its largest monthly increase since March, and annual inflation climbed to 3.6%. Core PCE inflation also accelerated, to 3.1% from a year earlier. Third-quarter GDP grew at an annualised 3.4%, ahead of expectations of 3.2%.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday ahead of next week's US midterm elections, but markets continue to price an approximately 80% chance of a rate hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Silver pays no interest, so higher expected rates raise the cost of holding it. Oil prices declined after reports that US Vice President JD Vance had sought to revive peace negotiations with Iran, but that did not stop the fall in precious metals.

Labour data are also soft: September payrolls rose by only 29,000, a combination of weak jobs growth and stubborn inflation that leaves the Fed with a difficult path.

A Deficit Market With Weakening Industrial Use

On fundamentals, silver is in its sixth consecutive annual deficit, expected at about 46 million ounces. That gap is small against the weight of monetary pressure. Industrial fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to 639.6 million ounces, and solar use is forecast to drop 19% to roughly 151 million ounces as manufacturers shift towards copper-based cells.

Investment holdings have also shrunk. Silver exchange-traded products hold about 805.8 million ounces after net selling this year, which means the investor base that rallied the metal to its January peak has been thinning for months.

Silver Against Its Precious-Metal Peers

Today's session shows how silver trades in a group. Gold fell 1.45%, platinum 3.64% and palladium 1.43%, so silver and platinum led the retreat while gold held closer to US$4,000. Silver's 4.56% weekly decline compares with 0.38% for gold, and its 13.75% monthly fall is nearly four times gold's 3.56%.

Silver Watch: Inflation Data, Fed Meetings and Solar Demand

The next US inflation readings and any Federal Reserve communication on a December move will set the tone for rate expectations. Chair Kevin Warsh has floated reducing the number of rate decisions from eight to six a year, which could add uncertainty about timing. Oil prices and the Middle East conflict also matter because of their effect on inflation.

Silver could find support if the Fed sounds less hawkish, if oil eases further, if the deficit proves larger than forecast or if investors return to exchange-traded products. It could stay under pressure if rate hike odds rise, if solar demand keeps falling or if product selling continues. Quarterly production reports from silver miners and exchange-traded product holdings will show whether supply and investment demand are shifting.