Key Highlights

  • SpaceX reports third-quarter results on Tuesday and Tesla on Wednesday, both after markets close, in a rare side-by-side look.
  • Analysts forecast SpaceX third-quarter revenue of about USD 12.74 billion, against USD 7.8 billion in the second quarter.
  • Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating estimates, while analysts forecast adjusted earnings of about 43 cents.
  • A bank raised the prospect of a deal before Tesla’s December 3 annual meeting; neither company nor Musk has committed.

Back-to-Back Earnings

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) report third-quarter results on consecutive days this week, giving investors a rare side-by-side look at Elon Musk’s two most valuable companies as merger speculation gathers momentum. SpaceX reports on Tuesday and Tesla on Wednesday, both after markets close.

The results test whether Starlink’s steady growth and Tesla’s car profits can fund the AI spending behind the merger debate. An adviser at an investment firm who owns shares in both companies said investors focus on Starlink revenue growth more than launch counts, and on improvement in auto margins for Tesla.

The businesses still differ. SpaceX earns from launches, Starlink and AI compute, while Tesla earns from cars and energy storage. SpaceX absorbed Musk’s xAI in February, months before its June IPO, and spending at both companies now points to the same place: AI.

SpaceX: AI Spending in Focus

SpaceX reports only its second results as a public company, four months after going public, with investors watching whether its surging AI spending turns into revenue. Analysts forecast third-quarter revenue of about USD 12.74 billion and earnings of 14 cents a share.

In the second quarter, the company reported revenue of USD 7.8 billion, a net loss of USD 541 million and AI capital spending of USD 15.8 billion. Connectivity revenue, which includes Starlink, rose 66 percent to USD 4.3 billion.

An investment research firm estimates SpaceX exits 2026 at an annualized revenue run-rate of about USD 104 billion, with the AI segment doing most of the heavy lifting. It puts capital spending at about USD 151 billion in 2027.

SpaceX also agreed on October 8 to buy 800 MHz spectrum from Grain Management for about USD 8 billion. The deal needs Federal Communications Commission approval and underpins its Starlink Mobile push.

Tesla: Robotaxis and Long-Term Bets

Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating analyst estimates, and is growing deliveries this year for the first time since 2023. Investors, however, focus more on profits and the company’s robotaxi bets.

Analysts forecast adjusted earnings of roughly 43 cents a share on revenue of about USD 27.88 billion, compared with 50 cents a year earlier. Second-quarter profit fell well short of estimates, with negative free cash flow of USD 1.1 billion, the first time in over two years the measure slipped into the red.

Tesla has said capital spending exceeds USD 25 billion this year, and its shares are down about 17 percent in 2026. Analysts forecast negative free cash flow of USD 4.92 billion for the third quarter.

Wall Street has largely focused on robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot to assess growth, citing them as high-margin product lines. Tesla’s robotaxi fleet is small compared with an established rival’s, and the company says it plans to roll out its self-driving taxis widely in the coming years. Its valuation has largely hinged on such long-term ambitions, though the car business contributes the lion’s share of revenue.

The Merger Question

A major bank suggested last week that an announcement before Tesla’s annual meeting is possible, with SpaceX the likelier acquirer, though neither company nor Musk has officially committed to a deal. Tesla said on Monday its annual meeting is on December 3. In an all-stock deal, the bank estimates Musk holds about 37 percent of the equity and 56 percent of the votes.

The adviser said a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla is cleaner, because it makes it easier to treat the China business as a separate asset.

Tesla gave the speculation a showpiece last Thursday, unveiling a Roadster, slated for production in 2028, that jumps and turns over mid-air using rocket technology at a SpaceX test site in Texas.

The head of research at a financial services firm called the display a subtle plant in investors’ minds, making an engineering-efficiency argument for a merger. The timing, ahead of Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, was no coincidence, he said.