Key Highlights

  • Democrats won at least 255 House seats, and the president has floated working with them on immigration.
  • George W. Bush vetoed 11 bills after the 2006 midterms, and Barack Obama vetoed 10 after 2014.
  • Trump named Stephen Miller, the architect of his deportation agenda, as chief of staff after the midterm loss.
  • Trump called in January for a 10% cap on Credit card interest rates, while tariffs remain a conflict.

A Rebuke and Mixed Signals

After a heavy midterm defeat, President Donald Trump is sending mixed signals. In an interview he said his deportation policy might be too tough and floated a deal with Democrats on immigration, a problem long unresolved. On Nov. 6 he named Stephen Miller, who runs his deportation agenda and is disliked by Democrats and some Republican lawmakers, as chief of staff, replacing Susie Wiles. Democrats won at least 255 of the 435 House seats in the Associated Press count as of Nov. 13.

The first term offers a template. After the 2018 midterms Trump warned Democrats that they could not "legislate and investigate simultaneously," adding that "it just doesn't work that way." They did both, and so did he. He fought congressional investigations while working with House Democrats on trade and environmental legislation, and later on an economic rescue package in 2020, after the House had impeached him on a party-line vote.

What Second-Term Presidents Tend to Do

A political scientist who studies Congress notes that presidents freed from facing voters again and focused on legacy tend to hold their positions after midterm reversals rather than retreat. George W. Bush sent more troops to Iraq despite public opposition to the war. Barack Obama angered Republicans by using executive orders to shield some immigrants who were in the country illegally.

Vetoes show the pattern. Bush issued none in his first five and a half years. After the Democratic victory of 2006 he vetoed 11 bills. Obama vetoed ten after his 2014 losses. Bush and Obama each reached some compromises with the opposition, though Trump differs from both in making conflict central to his political appeal.

Staffing and Image

Personnel decisions also differ. After 2006, Bush removed Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Trump has kept Pete Hegseth, who leads the Pentagon. On Nov. 10 the House voted 211 to 204 to refer articles of Impeachment against him to committee, so no floor vote was held. Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said Hegseth "has got to go." Rumsfeld's replacement was a former CIA director confirmed with votes from both parties.

His standing with the Republican base has rested on an image as a fighter, and Democratic investigations give him chances to display it.

Where Deals Are Possible

Immigration is difficult. Trump's suggestion that he might work with Democrats angered parts of his base, and the White House has not ruled out a deal. The president has always relied on those voters, especially in primaries, to keep other Republicans in line.

Government funding expires on Dec. 11, which puts a spending deal on the calendar before the new Congress is sworn in. Federal Debt reached USD 40 trillion in August, near the USD 41.1 trillion ceiling in current law. A narrower route exists on issues that appeal to his base but not to traditional Republican leaders. In January Trump called for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, an idea long associated with Democrats that divides Republican leaders, some of whom hold to economic orthodoxy. Some Republicans have already begun questioning parts of Trumpism after the midterms, and the head of the Heritage Foundation has blamed the party's embrace of AI and the Iran war for the losses.

Tariffs as the Flashpoint

Trade is the policy on which the president has shown the strongest ideological commitment. In February the House voted to rescind his tariffs on Canada, a rare bipartisan rebuke, yet overriding a veto takes two-thirds majorities in both chambers. The Supreme Court struck down the "liberation day" tariffs in February, and the administration has since moved the duties to other legal footing. A university budget model estimated in February that about USD 175 billion collected under the struck-down authority was subject to refunds.

The historical parallel is Grover Cleveland, the only other president to serve non-consecutive terms. His rigid commitment to the gold standard split his party, which nominated William Jennings Bryan in 1896. Bryan lost, and Democrats did not return to the White House for 16 years.

What the First Weeks of Divided Government Test

The calendar supplies the first tests. Government funding expires on Dec. 11, before the new Congress is sworn in, so the opening spending negotiation falls to the outgoing Congress, with the debt sitting just under the ceiling in current law. Early vetoes show whether the president treats the new House majority as an adversary or a negotiating partner, and the Nov. 10 committee referral of the Hegseth impeachment articles shows that effort stalled in the current Congress, with Democrats promising investigations of the Pentagon when the new Congress convenes in January. Immigration shows whether the president's willingness to talk survives objections from his base, and a Tariff bill shows whether Republicans in Congress vote to restore their own authority over trade. The precedents set by Bush and Obama show second-term presidents compromising on narrow issues while holding firm on signature ones, so the open question is which of his priorities Trump places in each category.