Key Highlights

  • Eisenkot's four-party alliance won 48 Knesset seats, against 53 for Netanyahu's bloc and a record 19 for Arab-led parties.
  • Sixty-seven lawmakers recommended Eisenkot to the president, against 46 who backed Netanyahu, in consultations with the president.
  • Eisenkot has 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension, and needs 61 of 120 seats.
  • Eisenkot has ruled out including Arab-led parties, while a Joint List lawmaker expects a minority government with outside Arab support.

The Mandate

Israeli President Isaac Herzog told Gadi Eisenkot on Saturday evening, Nov. 7, that he would receive the first mandate to form a government, with a formal ceremony the next day. Eisenkot, a former chief of the Israel Defense Forces who entered the Knesset in 2022 and leads the Yashar party, is the main challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu's bloc lost its majority in the Oct. 27 election, falling to 53 seats from 68.

Sixty-seven lawmakers, including some from Arab-led parties, recommended Eisenkot to the president in consultations. Forty-six backed Netanyahu. The 67 recommendations match the combined seats of Eisenkot's alliance and the Arab-led parties, 48 plus 19, while the 46 who backed Netanyahu are fewer than the 53 seats his bloc won.

A Chamber Without a Majority

The election left neither side with a majority of the Knesset's 120 seats. A government needs 61. Eisenkot's four-party alliance won 48 seats. Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc won 53. Arab-led parties won a record 19, including 11 for the Joint List. Likud remains the single largest party. Turnout nationwide was 77.9%, according to the acting director-general of the Central Elections Committee.

Eisenkot has 28 days to form a government, with a possible extension of 14 days. That is up to six weeks. If he fails, the president can nominate another candidate. If that nominee also fails, a majority of lawmakers can back a third candidate, who gets a final 14 days. If no government forms, a new election must be called within 90 days, with Netanyahu serving as caretaker. A government can also take office with fewer than 61 seats if it wins a confidence vote.

Routes to 61 Seats

Ahmad Tibi of the Joint List said he expects a minority government under Eisenkot with "external support from the Arab parties." Eisenkot has ruled out working with Arab-led parties. A minority government would depend on other lawmakers in a confidence vote, because the four-party alliance holds 48 of the 120 seats, 13 short of a majority.

A majority route runs through the ultra-Orthodox parties. United Torah Judaism and Shas together would give Eisenkot exactly 61 seats, according to the seat arithmetic. Those parties have long sought exemptions from military service for religious seminary students.

The Dispute Over the Result

Likud said, without giving evidence, that Arab-led parties "stole" the election, and it alleged foreign interference. Police arrested three activists carrying envelopes of cash on Oct. 27 and four more suspects two days later, linked to the Islamist party Ra'am, which denied involvement. The Shin Bet security agency opened an investigation at the election commission's request, and its chief, David Zini, gave the committee a written summary saying foreign funding and influence operations involved "thousands of people, and possibly more." Reports said that figure rested on intelligence rather than evidence.

The Central Elections Committee, chaired by Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, certified the results on Nov. 4 after a review of complaints found no systemic irregularities. Its five-member presidium approved them on Sohlberg's casting vote after Likud and Shas abstained. Sohlberg said that "even if the suspicions are substantiated, this would not undermine the integrity of the electoral process." Eisenkot accused Netanyahu of an "orchestrated and organized campaign to delegitimize the election results."

Netanyahu's Response

On Nov. 7 Netanyahu called for a unity government and said that a government "dependent on Islamists" would "dismantle the state of Israel from within." Netanyahu relies on religious parties that Demand draft exemptions.

What Stands Between Eisenkot and 61 Seats

Three pressures run at once. The first is the clock: 28 days, extendable by 14, after which the president can turn to another candidate and, failing that, to an election within 90 days. The second is the arithmetic. The alliance's 48 seats fall 13 short of a majority, and every way of closing the gap carries a price: Eisenkot has ruled out including Arab-led parties, while the ultra-Orthodox parties that would Supply exactly 61 seats have long sought military service exemptions.

The third is the argument over the legitimacy of the result, which election officials have rejected but which keeps the vote in public dispute. Whether Shas and United Torah Judaism choose a side, and on what terms, shows where the bargaining is concentrated. A majority of exactly 61 leaves no margin, since one defection would drop a coalition to 60 of 120 seats. The final days of the 28-day period, and any request for the 14-day extension, show how far talks have progressed.