Key Highlights

  • Ether slipped too, trading around $2,662 to $2,677 depending on the source and the time.
  • The 10-year Treasury Yield hit its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year its highest since 2004.
  • Gold had its worst day since June, with December futures falling to $4,168.40, and silver tumbled too.
  • Watch whether Bitcoin can hold above the $83,000 area or slips further toward its morning low near $82,958.

Bitcoin gave back ground on Monday, September 28, as surging bond yields, a stronger dollar and Middle East tensions pushed investors away from risk.

A breather for the rally

Bitcoin spent Monday, September 28 drifting lower. The world's largest Cryptocurrency traded around $83,450 near the US stock market close, after dipping to $82,957.64 earlier in the morning. Ether slipped too, trading around $2,662 to $2,677 depending on the source and the time.

Yields and the dollar

The biggest force was the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year its highest since 2004. When safe Government Bonds pay more, speculative Assets that pay no income, like bitcoin, become relatively less attractive.

The dollar also strengthened, with the dollar index rising to 100.94. A firmer dollar often weighs on bitcoin, which is priced in dollars. And the Federal Reserve is in hiking mode: it raised rates at its September meeting for the first time in three years, and futures price a strong majority chance of another hike in October.

Iran and oil

Geopolitics added to the pressure. Over the weekend, President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calling it "unacceptable." Oil rose, reviving Inflation worries.

Capital.com's Kyle Rodda summed up the mood: "Geopolitical risk will define the start of the new trading week after a stall in diplomatic progress between the U.S. And Iran."

Not just crypto

Bitcoin was not alone. Gold had its worst day since June, with December futures falling to $4,168.40, and silver tumbled too. Stocks fell broadly, with the S&P 500 down 59.72 points at 7,683.69 and the Nasdaq Composite down 248.34 points at 26,820.38. Fintech names SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI), Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM) and Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) all fell.

Some crypto stocks told a more mixed story. Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) rose after expanding a Stablecoin payments Partnership with Citigroup (NYSE:C). Strategy disclosed it bought 1,665 more bitcoin between September 21 and 27, lifting its holdings to 847,666 coins. Circle slipped after announcing its chief financial officer will step down at year-end.

A week full of catalysts

The week ahead is packed. Tuesday brings Job Openings and consumer confidence data, Wednesday the PCE inflation report, Thursday the ISM Manufacturing index, and Friday the September jobs report, where economists expect about 98,000 new jobs. Each could move yields, and with them, crypto.

Crypto-specific events are also lined up: Solana's Alpenglow upgrade, a World Liberty Financial governance vote, and Korea Blockchain Week from September 29 to October 1.

Whether bitcoin holds the $83,000 area

Watch whether bitcoin can hold above the $83,000 area or slips further toward its morning low near $82,958. The direction of Treasury yields and the dollar will be key: Schwab (NYSE:SCHW)'s Nathan Peterson noted that "If Treasury yields pull back (or at least stop moving higher), this could help provide a lift to stocks," and crypto often trades in step with risk appetite.

Friday's jobs report is the big one. A hot number could push yields and the dollar higher and keep pressure on bitcoin, while a softer one might give the rally room to resume.