Wall Street Futures Rise as Iran Diplomacy Eases Inflation and Oil-Supply Concerns

index Update

US stocks closed higher on Friday as strong technology gains, led by Amazon’s 15.3% surge on robust cloud growth, outweighed Apple’s 7.3% decline following chip-related production constraints. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6% and the Dow added 277 points. All three benchmarks advanced for the week, although the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined in July, while the Dow recorded its fourth consecutive monthly gain.

Market Movers

Among the top-performing stocks of the session Focus Universal Inc. surged 517.02%, while Replimune Group, Inc. rallied 107.02%. On the losing side, JIADE LIMITED. fell 87.98%, while T3 Defense Inc. declined 67.43%, making them the weakest performers during the trading day.

Commodities Update

Crude Oil prices fell about 5% on Monday, with WTI dropping below USD 80 per barrel and Brent below USD 84, after President Donald Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran and supported renewed diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Additional pressure came from a modest OPEC + production increase, the extension of the Turkey–Iraq pipeline agreement and resumed crude intake through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, although regional tensions and drone threats continue to pose Supply risks.

Gold rose above USD 4,050 per ounce and silver surpassed USD 58 on Monday, recovering from the previous session’s losses as renewed US–Iran peace efforts pushed oil prices lower and eased Inflation concerns. Investors also awaited key US labour-market data, particularly Friday’s jobs report, while assessing the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy stance and a roughly 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September.

Macro Updates

The US Dollar Index declined toward 99.5 on Monday, marking its fifth consecutive session of losses after coordinated US–Japan intervention strengthened the yen, with Japan estimated to have spent nearly USD 59 billion. Investors also awaited key US labour-market data, particularly Friday’s jobs report, while markets priced in a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in September.

Bonds Commentary

The US 10-year Treasury Yield eased to around 4.7% on Monday from an 18-month high as investors awaited key labour-market data, particularly Friday’s jobs report. Markets continued to price in a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in September, while reports that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may reduce the number of annual policy meetings added to uncertainty surrounding monetary-policy communication.

Futures Update

US Equity futures advanced on Monday as easing US–Iran tensions pushed oil prices and Treasury yields lower, reducing inflation concerns. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% and Dow futures rose more than 400 points, while the Nasdaq 100 edged higher. Banks strengthened, Bristol-Myers Squibb surged on Acquisition speculation, while semiconductor stocks remained volatile, with Micron and Sandisk falling over 3% and SpaceX and AMD declining ahead of Earnings .

Stocks traded in a choppy manner early on Friday after surrendering an initial advance, but buying interest strengthened through the session, allowing the major averages to extend Thursday's strong gains despite easing from their intraday highs into the close. Technically, the S&P 500 retains a mildly bullish bias after rebounding from the 50-day EMA and finishing above both the 20-day EMA (7,454) and 50-day EMA (7,413), signaling that buyers continue to defend key support levels. The 14-day RSI has improved to 52.9, reflecting strengthening momentum without reaching overbought conditions. As long as the index holds above the 7,450–7,460 support zone, it is likely to retest the 7,510–7,525 resistance area, while a decisive breakout could pave the way toward 7,560. Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA may trigger profit-taking toward the 7,410–7,420 region. Overall, the technical structure remains constructive and continues to favor a buy-on-dips strategy while the index trades above its key short-term moving averages.