Key Highlights

  • On its July 30 call, Exelon said high-probability Data Center load fell to about 11 GW from 18 GW at the end of 2025, a 40% reduction.
  • Q2 adjusted operating EPS rose to $0.43 from $0.39, and 2026 guidance of $2.81-$2.91 per share was reaffirmed.
  • Morgan Stanley cut its target to $50 from $53 on Sept 18 as the stock traded near its $42.09 12-month low.
  • Long-term Debt stood at about $50.3 billion at June 30, and analyst consensus rates the stock a Hold with an average price target of $49.87.

Exelon Corporation (NASDAQ:EXC) shares have drifted toward the bottom of their 12-month range after the Utility sharply reset how much data center Demand it counts as likely, taking some of the growth story out of one of the largest US power delivery companies. On Friday, September 18, the stock traded at about $42.10, just above a 12-month low of $42.09 and well below a 12-month high of $50.65.

The clearest company-specific catalyst came on the second-quarter Earnings Call on July 30, when Exelon said its "high-probability" data center load had fallen to about 11 gigawatts from 18 GW at the end of 2025, a 40% drop. The broader data center interconnection pipeline shrank to roughly 25 GW from about 43 GW cited on the May call. Since then, Morgan Stanley and Truist have trimmed price targets, and the shares have slipped below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Exelon did not cut guidance. It reaffirmed its 2026 outlook and Long-term Growth target, so the pressure appears to reflect investors re-pricing upside from large-load growth rather than a deterioration in the regulated base business. The precise cause of each day's move, however, is not clearly identifiable.

Inside the 40% Data Center Reset

About 9 GW of the remaining high-probability load sits in ComEd's northern Illinois territory and around 2 GW in Exelon's Mid-Atlantic utilities. Customers representing roughly 4 GW have signed transmission security agreements and posted about $1 billion in collateral.

Management framed the reduction as a tightening of standards rather than a collapse in demand. Chief Financial Officer Jeanne Jones said the new process means "we now weed out speculative projects, and it gives us proactive insight into what is real." Still, for a stock that had been partly valued on data center-driven load and Capital growth, a smaller headline number removes a source of optionality that some investors had priced in.

Exelon's capital plan stands at about $42 billion over four years, with a further $12 billion to $17 billion of potential transmission projects not yet included. How much of that incremental spending materializes depends partly on how many large-load customers actually connect.

Second-Quarter Numbers Held Steady

The July 30 earnings release was largely in line with the company's own expectations. GAAP Net Income was $0.39 per share, unchanged from a year earlier, while adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings rose to $0.43 per share from $0.39. GAAP net income was $396 million versus $391 million, and Operating Revenue climbed to about $5.97 billion from $5.43 billion. The adjusted figure came in one cent below the consensus estimate of $0.44.

The company affirmed 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance of $2.81 to $2.91 per share and said it expects operating EPS to compound near the top end of its 5% to 7% annual range from 2025 through 2029. It also said it had executed about 86% of its planned 2026 debt financings. The quarter included a $0.04 per share charge tied to a cost management program, primarily severance.

By utility, ComEd's adjusted earnings rose to $249 million from $228 million and BGE's rose to $70 million from $55 million, while PECO slipped to $130 million from $136 million and PHI fell to $126 million from $144 million, mainly on higher depreciation.

A Pure Wires Utility in a Power-Hungry Region

Exelon is a fully regulated transmission and distribution company serving almost 11 million customers through six utilities: ComEd, PECO, BGE, Pepco, Delmarva Power and Atlantic City Electric. It does not own generation, so its growth comes from rate base expansion approved by state regulators and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

That model is being tested on several fronts. BGE filed on July 2 to raise annual electric distribution rates by $156 million, based on a 10.40% return on equity, with a decision expected in the first quarter of 2027. In New Jersey, Atlantic City Electric has proposed a 500-megawatt, four-hour battery storage project in Pittsgrove with Invenergy, estimated at about $1 billion, seeking a 9.6% Return on Equity and targeting service in late 2030.

How Wall Street Is Recalibrating

Morgan Stanley cut its price target on Exelon to $50 from $53 on September 18 while keeping an equal-weight rating. Truist had earlier lowered its target to $48 from $50 with a hold rating on August 13. Four analysts rate the stock a buy, 13 a hold and one a sell, for a consensus "Hold" and an average target of $49.87.

Across the sector, utilities in the PJM Interconnection footprint have been judged partly on the size of their data center pipelines. Exelon has chosen to publish a smaller figure that it describes as more reliable, which may prompt investors to compare how quickly peers' larger prospective loads convert into signed, collateralized contracts.

Risks on Both Sides of the Ledger

  • Demand risk: Further attrition in the data center queue could reduce incremental transmission and distribution spending.
  • Regulatory and affordability pressure: Rising customer bills in Maryland, Illinois and New Jersey could complicate rate case outcomes and allowed returns.
  • Financing costs: Long-term debt stood at about $50.3 billion at June 30, and the company continues to issue bonds to fund capital spending, leaving earnings sensitive to interest rates.
  • Upside factors: Signed agreements backed by collateral, the unbudgeted transmission opportunity and storage proposals could support growth beyond the base plan if approved.

Watching the High-Probability Load Figure Next Quarter

The next major marker is Exelon's third-quarter report, which the company has historically released in late October or early November; a specific date has not yet been confirmed. Investors are likely to look for an update on the 11 GW high-probability figure and on whether more customers sign transmission security agreements.

Regulatory milestones include the BGE rate case decision expected in the first quarter of 2027 and a New Jersey Board of Public Utilities ruling on the Atlantic City Electric battery project, which could come in February if the schedule holds. Whether the shares can move away from 52-week-low territory may depend on evidence that the smaller pipeline is converting into firm load.