Key Highlights
● AMD closed Friday at $608.10, down $12.58, extending a slide that began a day earlier.
● The PHLX Semiconductor index slipped on Friday and posted a steep weekly loss, while the iShares software ETF jumped.
● Nvidia slipped $1.20 to $229.28 and Micron eased to $1,029.00, while Microsoft, Oracle and Palantir rallied.
● There was no company-specific news from AMD, which sells data-center processors, AI accelerators and chips for PCs and consoles.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) closed Friday at $608.10, down $12.58, extending a slide that began a day earlier. The drop stood out because the broader market recovered: the S&P 500 rose 46.18 points to 7,811.54 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 172.83 points to 27,366.17. There was no company-specific news from AMD. The stock was caught in a sector-wide divergence that saw investors buy software and Cybersecurity while steering clear of chips.
The PHLX Semiconductor index slipped on Friday and posted a steep loss for the week, while the iShares software ETF, IGV, jumped. One weekly review described the shift bluntly, saying Leadership had moved out of the AI trade.
The OpenAI Revenue scare
The trouble started Thursday. A media report said that OpenAI's annualized revenue was about $50 billion at the end of September, roughly $20 billion below figures of around $68 billion to $70 billion that had circulated in late September. Those earlier numbers appear to have included gross or partner revenue. The report hit companies whose growth is tied to AI spending. On Thursday, AMD and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) both fell sharply, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) dropped to $230.48, Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) slid and CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) tumbled.
A separate media report said OpenAI expects to reach or exceed $70 billion in annualized revenue by year-end, which helped calm nerves on Friday. Software names such as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle and Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) rallied, but chipmakers did not join in. Nvidia slipped $1.20 to $229.28, Micron (NASDAQ:MU) eased to $1,029.00 and Broadcom managed only a small gain.
Why chips are sensitive
AMD sells data-center processors and AI accelerators that compete with Nvidia, along with chips for PCs and gaming consoles. Much of the optimism around the stock this year has rested on Demand from large AI customers. That makes it especially exposed to any question about whether those customers' revenues can keep pace with their spending plans.
"Chips have been this year's story," Michael Monaghan, portfolio manager at Founder ETFs, said. Others see risk in that concentration. Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB)'s George Saravelos said, "The biggest systemic risk in the market next year is not France but 'something going wrong' in the AI ecosystem." Neither comment was specific to AMD, but both reflect the debate investors are having about the sector.
A light-volume, mixed market
Friday's gains came on light trading. About 14.37 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, below the 20-day average of 17.76 billion. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners by about 1.38 to 1, but the exchange still logged far more new 52-week lows than highs, extending a run of 30 straight sessions where lows outnumbered highs.
Rates added to the caution around richly valued growth stocks. The 10-year Treasury Yield held near a 24-year high, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Thursday he anticipates additional hikes to bring Inflation back to the Fed's goal. "For at least the near term, policy will be focused on the inflation side of our mandate," he said.
TSMC's October 15 Results Offer AMD's Next Read on AI Hardware Demand
US stocks trade on Monday, Columbus Day, though the Bond Market is closed. September consumer prices arrive Wednesday, October 14, bank Earnings run October 13 to 16, and the Fed meets October 27 to 28. TSMC (NYSE:TSM), which manufactures chips for AMD and many of its rivals, reports on October 15, offering a key read on AI and semiconductor demand. Any further reporting on OpenAI's revenue trajectory will also matter for the group.
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