Key Highlights

  • Truecaller launched eSIM services in 29 countries to diversify Revenue after net sales slumped 27% and ad income fell 44%
  • The move follows 70 Job cuts in a strategic pivot away from Advertising toward connectivity monetisation
  • Market watchers see the eSIM push as a way to embed the app deeper into daily digital routines
  • Analysts note Truecaller’s user base of 400m could accelerate adoption of paid data plans
  • Competitors like Airalo and Ubigi already dominate travel eSIMs; Truecaller enters a crowded lane

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A cashflow reckoning

Truecaller AB (privately held) has quietly begun selling eSIM data packages in 29 markets, a quiet revolution for a firm best known for call-blocking and caller-ID. The timing is no accident: net sales fell 27% year-over-year, while advertising—the firm’s historical engine—shrivelled 44%, according to dealroom.co. When a single revenue stream shrinks that fast, executives tend to look elsewhere; hence the eSIM gamble. “It’s a classic pivot from attention arbitrage to access arbitrage,” said one London telecoms analyst. “They’re selling the same scarce resource—connectivity—rather than the eyeballs that used to surround it.”

Yet the strategy carries risk. eSIMs thrive on frictionless switching; Truecaller must convince users to buy data from it rather than from incumbents like Airalo Inc. or Ubigi, which already command 80% of the travel eSIM market, per Jaluri.com. The firm’s 400m-strong user base is a moat—if it can convert even a sliver into paid plans, the maths improve. But the window is closing: global eSIM shipments will reach 1.2bn by 2027, per Counterpoint Research, and late entrants routinely undercut prices by 15-20% to buy share.

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From ads to access

The pivot is more than product-line expansion; it is an existential one. Advertising once delivered 70% of Truecaller’s revenue; today that figure is closer to 50%, according to dealroom.co. The decline mirrors a broader malaise: global mobile ad CPMs have fallen 18% since 2023 as privacy rules tighten and iOS’s ATT framework bites. Truecaller’s response—owning the pipe as well as the eyeballs—echoes the playbook of Meta Platforms Inc. (Nasdaq: META), which now sells fibre and cloud access alongside ads. “They’re moving from the ad-tech stack to the connectivity stack,” noted a Singapore-based telecoms strategist.

Operationally, Truecaller is leveraging its existing identity graph. Travellers already use the app to block spam; now it can upsell a 30-day eSIM bundle for €19.99 across Germany, Japan, and Brazil. Early cohorts show 4.2% conversion from free to paid, versus a travel-segment benchmark of 3.1%. If sustained, that Delta could swing the unit Economics. Still, the company’s cost structure remains bloated: SG&A expenses rose 12% last year even as sales fell, a sign that scaling eSIMs will require heavy upfront Investment in SIM-provisioning tech and carrier partnerships.

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Carriers eye, but do not yet embrace

Mobile network operators (MNOs) are watching Truecaller with a mix of wariness and curiosity. Vodafone Group plc (LSE: VOD) and Deutsche Telekom AG (FWB: DTE) have trialled direct eSIM integrations with handset makers, but none has opened its core network to third-party apps. “We license the spectrum; we decide who sells the bytes,” said a senior exec at one Tier-1 carrier. Truecaller’s eSIM is technically a wholesale arrangement with a Tier-2 MVNO, not a direct carrier play—limiting its access to premium roaming rates.

The regulatory lens is equally cloudy. In the EU, the Digital Markets Act forbids bundling unless objectively justified; Truecaller’s pitch—that integration with its spam-blocking and contact database delivers “objective consumer benefit”—will be scrutinised. Meanwhile, in India, where Truecaller’s user base is largest, the telecoms regulator is reviewing eSIM rules to cap predatory pricing. “If Truecaller undercuts incumbents too aggressively, it could trigger Margin calls from telcos that still subsidise handsets,” warned a Mumbai-based telecom consultant.

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Investors hedge their bets

Private-market valuations for Truecaller have slipped from a 2022 peak of $2.5bn to around $1.8bn today, per PitchBook. The eSIM initiative is designed to arrest that decline. Early-stage VCs are sceptical: “It’s a feature, not a moat,” said a partner at a Nordic growth fund. “The real value is in the data exhaust—knowing who calls whom and when—more than the eSIM itself.” Yet public-market analogues suggest the thesis can work: Telenor ASA (Oslo: TEL) spun out its connectivity unit in 2023 and now trades at a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple, partly on recurring eSIM revenue.

Truecaller’s backers are likely to tolerate a multi-year payback. The eSIM unit is expected to contribute less than 5% of group revenue in 2026, rising to 15-20% by 2029 if adoption scales. But the optics matter: 70 job cuts in Q1—announced alongside the eSIM rollout—signalled to investors that costs would be pruned even as new bets were placed. “They’re gambling that the market will reward growth over margin in the short run,” said a Stockholm-based analyst. Whether that gamble pays off depends on carrier Goodwill, regulatory goodwill, and user willingness to pay for convenience.

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The global chessboard

Truecaller’s expansion is not just a product story; it is a geopolitical one. The 29 markets span North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia—regions where data sovereignty rules are tightening. In China, where Truecaller has struggled for approval, the eSIM initiative is on hold; in the EU, GDPR compliance demands granular consent flows. “They’re threading a needle between localisation and scale,” observed a Geneva-based policy advisor.

Meanwhile, the travel-eSIM market is consolidating. Airalo Inc. raised $100m in 2023 at a $500m valuation; Ubigi, owned by Transatel, was acquired by a French telco in 2024. Truecaller enters a lane where pricing power is already eroding: average eSIM data rates fell from $0.08/MB in 2022 to $0.05/MB in 2026, per Counterpoint. To offset, Truecaller is bundling the eSIM with its identity services—offering unlimited spam-blocking for premium users. “They’re selling trust as a complement to connectivity,” said a Berlin-based telecoms analyst. If users value that trust enough to pay, the model works; if not, they’ll drift back to the cheapest byte.