Key Highlights

  • Amplitude (NASDAQ:AMPL) trades in the lower half of a twelve-month range of US$5.51 to US$14.49, valuing it near US$1.13bn.
  • For the three months, revenue was US$93.5m against US$80.0m a year earlier.
  • Forward indicators run ahead of reported revenue.
  • Amplitude's own filing lists Adobe and Google Analytics as competitors, and both can effectively give analytics away inside broader suites.

Why the market is paying attention

Amplitude (NASDAQ:AMPL) trades in the lower half of a twelve-month range of US$5.51 to US$14.49, valuing it near US$1.13bn.

The stock is drifting into an event: second-quarter results are due after the US close. The March-quarter release showed annual recurring revenue (ARR) of US$374m and revenue of US$93.5m, both up 17 per cent, alongside a fleet of AI agents built into the product itself.

Amplitude also disclosed a partnership with Statsig, a firm it names as a competitor in its own annual report, taking on Statsig's brand and customers while continuing to develop its platform. The catch sits in the guidance: 2026 revenue expectations rose, profit expectations fell.

What the company does

Amplitude sells digital analytics on subscription. Its core product tracks how people behave inside an app or website, which features they use, where they abandon a sign-up, so product teams can decide what to build next. Around it sit session replay, experimentation, customer data infrastructure and marketing analytics.

There were 4,797 paying customers, up 24 per cent, including 27 of the Fortune 100. Multi-product customers account for 77 per cent of ARR, and 39 per cent of March-quarter revenue came from outside the United States.

Competition is crowded. The FY2025 annual report names Mixpanel, PostHog, Contentsquare, owner of Heap, Optimizely, Statsig, Pendo, Adobe and Google Analytics. Adobe and Google can bundle analytics into far larger suites, a structural pricing risk for a specialist.

Latest financial and operating performance

For the three months, revenue was US$93.5m against US$80.0m a year earlier. GAAP gross profit was US$68.3m, a margin of 73.0 per cent, or 74.8 per cent non-GAAP. The GAAP operating loss was US$24.1m and the net loss US$23.3m, or US$0.17 per share; the non-GAAP net loss was US$2.3m.

FY2025 revenue was US$343.2m, up 15 per cent, at a 74.0 per cent GAAP gross margin, with a GAAP net loss of US$88.5m, or US$0.67 per share, against non-GAAP net income of US$8.6m. Accumulated deficit: US$546.4m.

The balance sheet reassures: US$86.6m of cash plus US$126.8m of marketable securities at 31 March, about US$213.4m and no borrowings disclosed, close to a fifth of the market value. Free cash flow was negative US$13.2m in the seasonally weak March quarter, against positive US$23.5m for FY2025.

The operating metrics carry the case. ARR reached US$374m, up 17 per cent. Customers paying more than US$100,000 a year numbered 727, up 18 per cent; those above US$1m reached 55, up 25 per cent. Dollar-based net retention, what an existing cohort spends this year against last, was 106 per cent, versus 104 per cent for FY2025 and 97 per cent in FY2024. Remaining performance obligations, contracted revenue not yet recognised, rose 31 per cent to US$427.4m.

The catalyst: agentic analytics, and who pays for it

The AI premise checks out. The March release describes a Global Agent that continuously interprets customer behaviour across charts, experiments and sessions and acts in real time; specialised agents that monitor funnels and sentiment via Slack or email; an in-product AI Assistant; and Agent Analytics, which measures how well customers' own AI agents perform.

Financially, what matters is retention rather than novelty. Net retention fell to 97 per cent in 2024, meaning the installed base was shrinking. Getting back above 100 per cent is the difference between selling hard to stand still and compounding. Management credits multi-product adoption and new pricing and packaging, a quarter of contracted ARR. The Statsig deal fits: it removes a rival and supplies a base to cross-sell into.

The cost shows in the guidance. In February, Amplitude guided FY2026 revenue to US$390m-US$398m with non-GAAP operating income of US$7m-US$13m. In May it raised revenue to US$397m-US$403m but cut operating income to US$2.5m-US$6.5m: about US$6m of profit traded for US$6m of revenue.

The bull case

Forward indicators run ahead of reported revenue. That backlog grew 31 per cent against revenue growth of 17 per cent, implying customers are signing longer or larger commitments than recognition yet reflects.

Valuation is undemanding. Net of cash, enterprise value is near US$920m against US$374m of ARR, roughly 2.4 times, for a business compounding recurring revenue at 17 per cent on mid-70s gross margins, with no debt and cash enough to fund the AI build-out.

The bear case and the risks

First, competitive asymmetry. Amplitude's own filing lists Adobe and Google Analytics as competitors, and both can effectively give analytics away inside broader suites. Contentsquare has consolidated the space by buying Heap, while Mixpanel and PostHog compete on price and developer adoption.

Second, dilution. Share-based compensation was US$95.6m in FY2025, about 28 per cent of revenue, and roughly US$20m in the March quarter. Non-GAAP profitability exists only because that expense is excluded, and the US$546.4m accumulated deficit records the gap.

Third, the retention recovery is thin. At 106 per cent, net retention sits barely above the level at which the installed base stops shrinking, and pricing scales with customers' event volumes and seats, so a slowdown in their traffic or hiring feeds through quickly.

Fourth, execution. Absorbing another vendor's brand, customers and platform is an operational undertaking whose cost is already in a reduced profit outlook. If those customers do not stay, Amplitude will have spent the margin without buying the growth.

What investors should watch next

Results. Net retention is the key line: at or above 106 per cent supports the thesis, a slip towards 102-103 per cent undermines it. Watch ARR against the US$374m base and the US$100,000-plus count against 727.

Whether the reduced profit guidance holds. Management guides to non-GAAP operating income of US$2.5m-US$6.5m on revenue of US$397m-US$403m. A second cut would suggest open-ended spending.

Free cash flow turning positive again. The March quarter consumed US$13.2m; FY2025 delivered US$23.5m.

Share-based compensation, and any figure put on Statsig. A sustained fall from 28 per cent of revenue turns non-GAAP profit into the real thing; a disclosed Statsig contribution would show how material the deal is.

Investor takeaway

Amplitude is doing something substantive rather than cosmetic with AI, and the numbers support the direction of travel: ARR up 17 per cent to US$374m, contracted backlog up 31 per cent, net retention recovered from 97 per cent in 2024 to 106 per cent, and enterprise accounts growing faster than the base overall. It holds US$213.4m of cash and securities with no disclosed debt. Against that, it is still loss-making under generally accepted accounting principles, share-based compensation runs near a quarter of revenue, and management has chosen to spend guided 2026 profit on the transition. The 5 August result will show whether that spending buys durable expansion.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Share prices can rise or fall, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should conduct independent research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.