Nelnet, Inc. (NYSE:NNI) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$309m revenue coming in 9.0% lower than what the analystexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.07 missed the mark badly, arriving some 95% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Nelnet NYSE:NNI Earnings and Revenue Growth November 9th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nelnet from solitary analyst is for revenues of US$1.43b in 2025. If met, it would imply a meaningful 10% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 103% to US$6.37. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analyst had been anticipated revenues of US$1.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.30 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analyst has updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With the analyst reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 8.2% to US$106. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Nelnet's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 7.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Nelnet is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analyst reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analyst also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nelnet's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Story Continues

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free  on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Nelnet (2 are a bit concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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