The morning after Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair, GDP, PCE, and the Employment Cost index land simultaneously at 8:30 a.m. ET, a three-way collision of growth, Inflation, and wage data. Apple closes the Magnificent Seven Earnings cluster tonight. The policy frame has been set; now comes the data that either confirms it or breaks it.

Key Highlights

  • Q1 GDP, March core PCE, and the ECI all print at 8:30 a.m. ET simultaneously.
  • Four FOMC members dissented in an 8-4 vote; the 10-year Yield hit 4.42%, a four-week high.
  • Alphabet surged nearly 7% and Amazon gained 4% after hours; Meta fell more than 6% after raising its capex guidance. Apple reports tonight.
  • WTI above $107, Brent near $119 after Trump confirmed the Iran blockade stays in place.
  • ECB and Bank of England both decide rates today; both expected to hold.

Market Snapshot

U.S. Equity futures are modestly higher in early Thursday trading, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each up around 0.2%, supported by strong Alphabet and Amazon results. Dow futures are marginally lower. The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,135.95, down 0.04%, while the Dow fell 280 points to 48,861.81, its fifth consecutive losing session. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.04% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%. The dollar index rose to 99.9, a three-week high, on the hawkish FOMC tone. The 10-year Yield climbed approximately 7bps to 4.42%. WTI settled at $107.16 and Brent near $119.

The Macro Context

Wednesday's FOMC decision was a hold in name but a sharp shift in tone. Four members dissented in an 8-4 vote, the most divided Fed since October 1992. Three of the four, Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari, and Dallas's Lorie Logan, opposed the easing bias in the statement itself, not the rate decision. The fourth, Governor Stephen Miran, voted for an immediate cut. That split signals that Kevin Warsh, confirmed out of the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday and heading to a full Senate vote, inherits a genuinely fractured committee. Powell, in what he confirmed was his final press conference as Chair, said core PCE is expected to print at 3.2% for March and that the Iran war is weighing on the economic outlook before signalling he will remain on the Board of Governors.

he Q1 GDP consensus of 2.2% would mark a sharp rebound from Q4 2025's revised 0.5%. A beat signals the economy is absorbing elevated rates without fracturing. A miss alongside a 3.2% core PCE produces the stagflationary configuration that has shadowed this quarter: growth slowing, Inflation not. The ECB and Bank of England both decide rates this morning. Neither is expected to move, but Lagarde's tone on second-round energy effects sets the global policy frame for the next six weeks. The UAE's announced exit from OPEC on May 1 adds a further structural variable to the energy picture.

Economic Data to Watch

8:30 a.m. ET: Q1 GDP Advance Estimate (consensus 2.2%, prior 0.5%): The first official read on whether the economy absorbed a full quarter of elevated energy costs and rate pressure. The earliest estimate and the one markets react to most sharply.

8:30 a.m. ET: Core PCE, March (YoY forecast 3.2%, MoM forecast 0.3%): The Fed's preferred Inflation gauge. Powell pre-guided the 3.2% figure Wednesday afternoon, removing the possibility of a positive surprise. A print above 0.30% MoM pushes any rate adjustment firmly beyond the summer.

8:30 a.m. ET: Employment Cost index, Q1 (forecast 0.9%, prior 0.7%): The Fed's cleanest read on structural wage pressure, controlling for changes in Job and worker mix. A beat above 0.9% alongside sticky PCE and soft growth tightens the policy bind through the rest of 2026.

8:30 a.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims (forecast 212,000, prior 214,000): Labour market context for the dual mandate. Any deterioration compounds the growth-side of the Stagflation read.

Earnings: Before the Bell

Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) Three consecutive EPS misses going in, against analyst expectations of $4.55. Infrastructure Demand tied to European defence buildouts is the bull case; North American construction volumes, rate-sensitive and slowing, are the bear. At a 43.5x P/E, there is little tolerance for a fourth miss. Order Backlog commentary and geographic Revenue mix are the operative signals.

Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) The session's highest-stakes pharmaceutical reporter, with consensus at $7.06 EPS, more than double the year-ago $3.34. GLP-1 weight-loss drug Volume and tirzepatide Supply trajectory are the primary market-moving metrics. Whether eased Supply constraints translated into Revenue conversion or backfill of deferred Demand determines how much of the year-over-year jump is sustainable.

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) The payments network as a real-time consumption barometer. Consensus EPS is $4.40 against a year-ago $3.73. Cross-border Volume growth tracks directly against the energy-price squeeze on consumer discretionary spending that Thursday's PCE is expected to confirm. Forward Volume guidance and any commentary on consumer deceleration in high-Inflation geographies drives the stock beyond the headline.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) The session's straightforward energy beneficiary. At $1.65 EPS consensus against a year-ago $2.09, the bar looks modest, but Q1 absorbed WTI near and above $100 for its entirety, which reshapes the Revenue math considerably. The real question is how management frames capex posture under a sustained Iran blockade, and whether full-year guidance is revised higher.

Earnings: After the Bell

Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) The week's capstone and the single most consequential report of the quarter. Consensus sits at $1.92 EPS on approximately $109 billion in Revenue, with Services expected near $30 billion at 70%-plus gross Margin and iPhone near $56.5 billion. This is not a routine quarter. Tim Cook's announcement that he will step down as CEO on September 1, replaced by hardware chief John Ternus, makes tonight's conference call the first investor test of succession confidence. China iPhone Volume recovery and the Services Margin trajectory are the operative metrics. Capital allocation guidance, typically including a Dividend increase and buyback authorization in the spring quarter, will be parsed as a signal of management conviction entering the transition.

Source: Kalkine

One Number to Watch

2.2% is the Q1 GDP consensus and the number that sets the interpretive frame for everything else at 8:30 a.m. A print at or above that level signals the economy is holding at current rates. Anything below 1.5%, arriving alongside a 3.2% core PCE, activates the Stagflation trade and reprices every duration-sensitive and growth-sensitive asset on the tape. That scenario greets Apple's conference call this evening with a materially different backdrop than the one priced into a $4 trillion market cap. The number is known within hours.