The Nasdaq 100 hit a record high Friday as Intel surged 25% on blowout Q1 earnings, with 89% of S&P 500 reporters beating estimates despite elevated oil prices and an unresolved Iran conflict.

Key Highlights

  • The Nasdaq 100 reached a new all-time high on Friday, led by a surge in AI-linked technology stocks.
  • Intel jumped 25% after Q1 revenue of $13.6 billion crushed Wall Street's estimate of $12.36 billion.
  • Around 89% of S&P 500 reporters have topped earnings estimates, well above the five-year average of 78%.
  • WTI crude held above $95 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz blockade remained in place.
  • Consumer sentiment hit a record low of 49.8 in April, a widening divergence from equity market confidence.

The Index That Would Not Wait

Geopolitical uncertainty has a well-established tendency to compress equity valuations and delay risk-taking. The Nasdaq 100's behaviour in April 2026 has largely ignored that tendency. On Friday, the technology-heavy index jumped 1% to a fresh all-time high, extending a recovery that has been faster, steeper, and more conviction-driven than many institutional strategists had anticipated following the Iran conflict's onset.

The Nasdaq 100 had already reached an all-time high earlier in April, confirming the extraordinary breadth and conviction of the artificial intelligence-driven technology rally. Friday's move built on that foundation, and the catalyst was unmistakable: corporate earnings from technology companies are arriving well ahead of even revised-upward expectations.

The record matters not merely as a price level but as a statement about where institutional capital is finding structural conviction. In an environment of elevated energy costs, record-low consumer sentiment, and an unresolved military blockade on one of the world's most critical shipping lanes, the index's composition has become its insulation.

Intel Redefines the Benchmark

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 on revenue of $13.6 billion, against Wall Street's expectations of $0.01 EPS and $12.36 billion in revenue. Data Center and AI revenue reached $5.1 billion, up 22% year-on-year, while AI-driven business revenue surged 40% over the same period. This marked the company's sixth consecutive quarter of exceeding its own financial guidance, progressively repositioning Intel from perceived AI laggard to active infrastructure beneficiary. The stock surged 25% to a record not seen since the dot-com era.

SAP (NYSE:SAP) reinforced the session's momentum, rising 7% after its quarterly earnings came in above analyst estimates, demonstrating that AI capital expenditure is generating revenue expansion across both hardware and software layers. Together, the two results lifted Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) by over 2%. AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) surged nearly 13% on renewed AI trade confidence, while the iShares Semiconductor ETF rose 4%, on pace for its 18th consecutive session in the green, providing the Nasdaq 100's Friday session with a credible fundamental anchor.

Earnings Season Validates the Rally

Intel and SAP did not arrive in isolation. The Q1 2026 earnings season is producing results that are, by historical standards, unusually strong across the board.

Of the 70 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, representing 14% of the index, 89% have topped earnings estimates. The estimated year-on-year earnings growth rate for Q1 2026 stands at 13.2%, which, if confirmed, will mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index. That is the longest such streak since the post-financial crisis recovery period.

The Magnificent 7 companies are tracking estimated year-on-year earnings growth of 22.8% in Q1, while the remaining 493 companies in the index are running at a blended rate of 10.1%. The concentration of outperformance within large-cap technology explains much of the Nasdaq 100's relative strength against both the S&P 500 and the Dow. It also explains the persistent divergence between those indices and the more cyclically exposed European and Japanese benchmarks, which lack comparable technology weightings.

For full-year 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth rates of 20.1%, 22.2%, and 19.9% for Q2 through Q4 respectively, with aggregate calendar-year growth estimated at 18%. If those projections hold, the Nasdaq 100's current valuation, while elevated, rests on a more durable earnings trajectory than the broad market's headline multiple might suggest.

Outside technology, P&G (NYSE:PG) added over 4% after posting EPS of $1.59 against expectations of $1.56, on revenue of $21.24 billion versus the $20.5 billion consensus, signalling that earnings resilience in this cycle is not exclusively a technology story.

The Overhang That Remains

The record close did not occur against a settled macro backdrop. WTI crude futures were trading above $95 per barrel and Brent above $106, reflecting persistent supply uncertainty tied to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Technology companies, with their relatively low direct energy cost exposure, are better positioned than industrials or consumer discretionary peers to absorb that pressure, which partly explains why the Nasdaq 100 outperformed the Dow substantially on the day.

Reports citing a Pakistani government official indicated that the Iranian foreign minister was expected in Islamabad, with US-Iran negotiations likely to follow. Oil prices eased modestly on the news, and equity risk appetite improved in response. Markets have proven throughout this cycle that even partial diplomatic signals are sufficient to release pent-up buying interest. The structural question is whether that reflex is pricing a resolution or merely a pause.

The household data does not share the equity market's optimism. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment gauge came in at 49.8 for April, a record low, down 6.6% from the previous month. A technology index setting all-time highs while household confidence sits at historic lows reflects a bifurcation that is not inherently unsustainable in the short term, but which narrows the index's tolerance for earnings disappointment in the quarters ahead.

Valuation at the New High

The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 stands at 20.9, above both the five-year average of 19.9 and the ten-year average of 18.9. For the Nasdaq 100, which trades at a premium to the broader index, the valuation asks more of earnings delivery than the headline S&P figure implies.

What Friday confirmed is that, at this stage of the cycle, the technology sector's earnings are doing that work. Whether an index at record highs, with crude oil above $95 a barrel and a blockade still in place, is pricing risk correctly or discounting it remains the central analytical tension of this market.