Iran retaliates against a U.S. airbase as the ceasefire unravels, Salesforce and Snowflake surge after blockbuster results, and the most data-dense morning of the year arrives at 8:30 AM ET. S&P 500 futures down 0.33% at $7,515.25, Nasdaq futures down 0.76% at $29,817.50, Dow futures down 0.17% at $50,642.00, VIX down 4.23% to 16.29.

  1. Geopolitics and Energy: Iran Retaliates Against U.S. Airbase; Oil Jumps 3%, Gold Hits Two-Month Low

Fresh U.S. strikes in Iran against a military site believed to threaten U.S. troops and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz prompted Iran's Revolutionary Guards to say they targeted a U.S. airbase at around 4:50 a.m. local time Thursday.

The IRGC did not specify the airbase location. U.S. forces also intercepted and downed several Iranian drones. Kuwait activated its air defenses against missile and drone threats overnight. Brent gained over 3% to $97.29 and WTI gained 3.42% to $91.71.

Gold fell 1.73% to $4,371.60, a two-month low, and silver fell 3.65% to $72.16, as rising oil stoked Inflation fears and pushed Treasury yields higher. The mutual strikes confirm the U.S. and Iran are simultaneously negotiating and fighting, the most volatile phase of the war since the April 8 ceasefire.

  • The ceasefire framework described as "largely negotiated" last weekend is under acute stress; the Hormuz blockade remains in full force.
  • Oil markets had been pricing out worst-case Supply disruption scenarios ahead of a potential deal; Thursday's strikes directly reverse that positioning.
  • Risk note: mutual escalation while negotiations continue removes the assumption that a deal is imminent; oil could retrace Wednesday's decline rapidly if the IRGC confirms the airbase strike caused casualties.
  1. Wednesday After-Close Results: Salesforce Beats on Agentforce, Marvell Surges, Snowflake Rockets 36%

Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) reported Q1 fiscal 2027 Revenue of $11.12 billion beating the $11.06 billion estimate. Agentforce ARR reached $1.1 billion, up 37.5% quarter over quarter. Stock surged more than 10% after hours.

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) reported Q1 revenue of $2.43 billion beating $2.40 billion guidance, EPS $0.70 beating $0.65, data centre revenue up 73% year over year. Stock surged 8% after hours.

Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) rocketed 37% after hours, after reported Q1 EPS of $0.39 beating $0.32 on revenue of $1.39 billion up 33% year over year. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) confirmed Snowflake committed $6 billion on AWS over five years including Graviton chips and GPUs. Q2 product revenue guidance of $1.415 billion to $1.420 billion beat the $1.37 billion estimate. Snowflake is also acquiring AI startup Natoma.

  • The three beats repair the enterprise software narrative damaged by Intuit, Box, and Zscaler guidance misses earlier in the week.
  • The $6 billion Snowflake-AWS commitment steps up from $2.5 billion in 2023, cementing AWS as the dominant hyperscaler for AI data infrastructure.
  • Risk note: Salesforce's slight EPS miss despite strong Agentforce growth signals heavy Investment ahead of monetisation; Margin expansion versus ARR growth is the key question on the call.
  1. Earnings: Costco, Best Buy, Dell and Burlington Report Before the Open Today

Costco (NASDAQ: COST) is the most watched print after Walmart's guidance cut; consensus EPS $4.11 on revenue of $63.2 billion with comparable sales growth of approximately 6%.

Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) provides the consumer electronics Demand read under Iran war inflation.

Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) follows Friday's 17% surge; consensus EPS $2.05 on revenue of $24.6 billion.

Burlington Stores (NYSE: BURL) is the second major off-price retail read after Ross Stores' Blowout Q1.

  • Costco's membership renewal rate and new member additions will be as important as comparable sales, as subscription loyalty is the structural moat separating it from peers facing consumer pressure.
  • Dell's AI server Backlog was described as "massive" on Friday; Thursday's print is the first formal earnings disclosure to quantify it.
  • Risk note: if Costco cuts guidance or flags trade-down behaviour, it extends Walmart's consumer warning into the premium Warehouse segment
  1. Wednesday Market Close and Thursday Pre-Market: S&P 500 Edges to Record; Futures Fall on Iran Escalation

The S&P 500 edged up 0.02% to 7,520.36 Wednesday, a marginal new record close. The Dow gained 0.36% to 50,644.28. The Nasdaq added 0.07% to 26,674.735. The VIX fell 4.23% to 16.29. Thursday pre-market futures are lower: S&P down 0.33%, Nasdaq down 0.76%, Dow down 0.17%, reflecting the overnight Iran escalation and caution ahead of the 8:30 AM ET data quadruple. The VIX remaining below 17 despite mutual Iran strikes signals orderly repositioning rather than fear-driven selling.

  • The AAII weekly survey showed bears at 43.6% versus bulls at 31.7%, a bearish backdrop that some investors view as a contrarian opportunity.
  • Wednesday's marginal S&P gain masked significant sector divergence: technology surged on after-hours earnings optimism while energy lagged on Iran deal hopes that have since reversed.
  • Risk note: S&P futures declining while the VIX falls suggests the Options market is not fully hedged against the Iran escalation; a sharp oil move at the open could reprice that complacency.
  1. Wednesday Stock Movers: Boston Scientific -12%, MGM +9%, Rollins -5%, Arch Capital -4%

Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) plunged 12.46% to $50.46 after CEO Mike Mahoney at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference cut full-year 2026 organic growth guidance, flagging a slowdown in its flagship WATCHMAN cardiac device, increased competitive pressure in electrophysiology, and softness in urology.

MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM) surged 9.10% to $41.95 after dual upgrades from Truist, improving Las Vegas Strip room rates and an imminent return to revenue and EBITDA growth.

Rollins (NYSE: ROL) fell 5.23% to $50.38 after announcing CFO Kenneth Krause would be departing.

Arch Capital (NASDAQ: ACGL) dropped 4.16% to $91.40 amid broader insurance sector pressure and premium valuation concerns.

  • BSX's WATCHMAN device slowdown is significant as the cardiac Franchise has been the company's primary growth driver; guidance cut at a Sell-Side conference rather than a formal release should be treated as preliminary.
  • MGM's dual upgrade signals Las Vegas Strip recovery is accelerating despite Iran war inflation, a positive read for Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) heading into summer.
  • Risk note: Rollins CFO departure rattled investor confidence in financial Leadership stability; CFO transitions at mid-cap companies frequently precede earnings guidance revisions.
  1. U.S. Housing: 30-Year Mortgage Rate Hits Nine-Month High at 6.65%; Applications Fall 8.5%

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 9 basis points to 6.65% in the week ended May 22, the highest since August 2025. Mortgage applications dropped 8.5%, driven largely by a decline in refinancing, with overall application volumes at their lowest since last summer. The Iran war has kept oil elevated, fuelled inflation, pushed up Treasury yields, and directly fed into mortgage rates, reversing the decline from around 6% that followed the Fed's late 2025 rate cuts. Nearly two-thirds of outstanding mortgages still carry a rate below 5%, sustaining the lock-in phenomenon keeping supply off the market. Housing stock turnover averaged 4.7% over the last four quarters, below the rate seen during the depths of the global financial crisis. Freddie Mac's competing mortgage rate data is due today and is expected to confirm the upward trend.

  • The nine-month mortgage rate high arriving on the same day as PCE creates the most compressed single-day read on the Iran war's consumer impact of the entire year.
  • Trump said hours after Warsh was sworn in that he expected rates to come down; markets are now pricing in a possible rate hike, making today's data a direct test of that tension.
  • Risk note: any further rise in the 30-year rate deepens the affordability gap and extends the housing market freeze, creating structural drag on consumer Wealth that Equity market records do not reflect.
  1. Macro Data: PCE, GDP, Jobless Claims and Durable Goods All Release at 8:30 AM ET Today

Four major U.S. economic data releases land simultaneously at 8:30 AM ET Thursday. April PCE inflation is expected to rise to 3.8% year over year from 3.5% in March, the strongest pace since May 2023, with core PCE expected at +0.3% monthly. Personal Income is expected up 0.3% and spending up 0.5%, implying consumers are spending more than they earn. The Q1 GDP second estimate consensus is 2.1% annualised, down from the 2.4% first estimate. Any combination of hot PCE and downward GDP revision creates a Stagflation read, the worst possible outcome for equity valuations. Weekly jobless claims and April durable goods orders also release simultaneously.

  • March PCE came in at 3.5% overall and 3.2% core; if April confirms acceleration toward 3.8%, it will be the second consecutive monthly acceleration since the Iran war began.
  • The four simultaneous releases mean the market must parse potentially conflicting signals; strong jobs alongside hot PCE would be the most hawkish combination.
  • Risk note: this is Warsh's first major inflation data release as Fed chair; his first public response will be parsed as closely as the data itself.