Key Highlights

  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 89.4 in August 2026, from 90.2 the prior month.
  • This marked the second consecutive monthly decline in the index.
  • A rising share of consumers said a Recession within the next 12 months is very likely.
  • Respondents specifically cited jobs, incomes, fuel prices, and the Iran conflict as concerns.

A Second Straight Monthly Decline

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 89.4 in August 2026, down from 90.2 the prior month, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. The index, which draws on survey responses about consumers' views of current conditions and their expectations for the months ahead, is one of two widely watched US consumer sentiment gauges alongside the University of Michigan's separate survey.

Rising Recession Fears

A notable share of survey respondents said they believed a recession within the next 12 months was very likely, an increase from prior readings that reflected growing unease about the economic outlook. Recession-probability questions embedded in consumer surveys like this one are watched not because consumers are necessarily accurate forecasters of recessions, but because consumer expectations themselves can influence spending behavior, with more pessimistic households often pulling back on discretionary purchases.

What Consumers Cited as Concerns

Respondents specifically pointed to concerns about jobs, incomes, elevated fuel prices, and the ongoing Iran conflict as factors weighing on their outlook, tying the survey's decline directly to both domestic economic pressures and the geopolitical tensions that have also been driving oil prices higher over the same period. This recurring recession-watch storyline continued to be cited across financial press coverage in the weeks following the release.

Where Things Stand

The Conference Board's second consecutive monthly decline in consumer confidence, paired with rising recession expectations tied to jobs, incomes, fuel prices, and geopolitical tensions, adds to a broader picture of softening household sentiment even as headline market indexes have continued climbing. Whether this translates into an actual pullback in consumer spending will be an important data point to watch in the coming months.