Key Highlights

  • Gold rose over 1% to $4,070 and silver jumped over 4% to $59 an ounce on US-Iran diplomacy and Fed rate bets.
  • Copper surged nearly 3% to a five-week high of $6.48 per pound on tight Chinese and Chilean supply.
  • Steel rebar and iron ore both fell to one-week lows on seasonal Chinese demand weakness.
  • Lithium carbonate fell to a near four-month low, while platinum traded near late-November lows.

Metals markets diverged sharply on Tuesday, with precious metals gold and silver rising alongside industrial metal copper, even as steel rebar, iron ore, lithium carbonate, and platinum all traded lower, reflecting a mix of geopolitical, monetary policy, and China-specific demand and supply dynamics across the complex.

What Happened — Precious Metals

Gold rose more than 1% to $4,070 an ounce, and silver jumped more than 4% to $59 an ounce, as investors weighed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the US-Iran conflict against inflation risks and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Reports indicated mediators are working to restart talks between Washington and Tehran, including a possible 10-day truce to secure shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are pricing in more than a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, even as the Fed is expected to hold rates steady next week.

Platinum moved in the opposite direction, trading near $1,610 per ounce, close to late-November lows, as the same US-Iran-driven inflation and rate-hike risk pushed Treasury yields higher, weighing on the non-yielding metal. Markets have increased the odds of a September Fed rate hike to about 55%. Sibanye-Stillwater plans to advance seven PGM mining projects, though production is not expected until next year, and the World Platinum Investment Council expects a fourth consecutive market deficit in 2026.

What Happened — Industrial and Base Metals

Copper surged nearly 3% to around $6.48 per pound, a five-week high, as China's import premium for copper climbed to $100 per tonne, the highest since May last year, amid a crackdown on VAT fraud that constrained scrap availability. LME inventories fell to their lowest level since March, and storms in Chile disrupted output at South32, Antofagasta, and Codelco.

Steel rebar futures fell to around CNY 3,070 per ton, a one-week low, as persistent rainfall in southern China and high temperatures in the north hampered construction activity. Blast furnace utilization slipped below 90% and mill profitability eased to around 37%, while Chinese steel exports declined 5.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year.

Iron ore futures fell below CNY 750 per ton, also a one-week low, on the same seasonal Chinese demand weakness, though the state-backed China Mineral Resources Group barred some mills from taking delivery of two lower-grade Fortescue products, helping to limit losses.

Market Reaction

Lithium carbonate fell to CNY 151,000 in July, its lowest in nearly four months, as CATL's Jianxiawo mine and Australian projects from Mineral Resources and Core Lithium resumed or restarted operations, improving the global supply outlook even as EV battery competition and energy storage demand continued to support consumption.

Taken together, the day's moves highlight a split between metals sensitive to US-Iran geopolitical risk and Fed policy expectations (gold, silver, platinum) and metals driven primarily by China-specific supply and demand conditions (copper, steel, iron ore, lithium).

Outlook

The September Federal Reserve meeting and any further developments in US-Iran diplomacy are likely to remain key catalysts for gold, silver, and platinum, while Chinese construction activity, mill margins, and mine restart schedules will likely continue to drive steel, iron ore, copper, and lithium carbonate prices.

Which metals rose and which fell on Tuesday?

Gold, silver, and copper all rose, while steel rebar, iron ore, lithium carbonate, and platinum all traded lower.

What is driving the divergence between gold/silver and platinum?

Gold and silver rose on de-escalation hopes and safe-haven demand, while platinum fell as the same geopolitical risk raised Fed rate-hike odds, which weighs on non-yielding metals.

What is driving copper, steel, and iron ore prices?

Copper is supported by tight Chinese and Chilean supply, while steel rebar and iron ore are pressured by seasonal Chinese construction demand weakness.