Key Highlights

  • Bitcoin fell about 1.25% to roughly USD 73,800 on November 10, 2026 after a hot Inflation report, bounced 1.12% to about USD 74,440 on November 11, and traded near USD 73,400 early on November 12.
  • The price sits just above Tuesday's low and close to its weakest level since August, with Ether near USD 2,040 to USD 2,070.
  • US spot Bitcoin funds recorded USD 95 million of outflows on November 10, a fourth straight day, and iShares Bitcoin Trust (NASDAQ:IBIT) lost USD 78 million in its eighth consecutive session of redemptions.
  • Index provider MSCI confirmed it will remove Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, from its indexes after the November 30 close.

Why Bitcoin Is Struggling

The main headwind is the rate outlook. Bitcoin had benefited from expectations of easier monetary policy, but markets now price close to 90% odds of a Federal Reserve hike in December and almost 60 basis points of tightening through March 2027. Higher real yields raise the Opportunity cost of holding an asset that produces no income, and a stronger dollar, now at its highest level since April 2025, tends to weigh on crypto prices. The October consumer price index, which rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast, sharpened those pressures and triggered Tuesday's decline. Risk appetite has also been tested by turmoil in technology stocks, especially Nvidia. Crypto has traded closely with high-growth equities, so selling in AI names spills over into digital assets. Wednesday's partial rebound came as the Nasdaq rallied 1.6%, but the gain faded overnight when Nasdaq futures fell on Nvidia's after-hours plunge.

The ETF Flow Picture

Spot bitcoin ETFs have become the main channel for institutional demand, so their flows are closely watched. Four straight days of net outflows across the group, and eight straight days for the largest fund, show that investors are trimming exposure rather than buying the dip. Ether funds lost about USD 145 million on the latest data. These outflows are modest relative to total assets, but their persistence matters because ETF buying was a key driver of the rally to record highs earlier in the cycle. Without fresh inflows, price support depends more on long-term holders and corporate treasuries. That is where Strategy's index exclusion is significant: removal from MSCI benchmarks forces passive funds that track them to sell the stock, which could limit the company's ability to raise Capital to buy more bitcoin. Strategy holds more than 850,000 bitcoin, and its purchases have been an important source of demand.

Levels and Outlook

Traders are watching the area just above USD 73,000, near this week's low, as near-term support. A break below could bring a test of levels last seen in the summer. A sustained recovery likely requires either a softer inflation picture or renewed ETF inflows. For IBIT holders, the fund tracks the Spot Price closely, so its performance mirrors bitcoin minus a small fee. Seasonal patterns have historically favoured crypto late in the year, but that tendency offers little protection when the dollar and rates are moving against the asset. Leverage in crypto Derivatives markets was also reduced after more than USD 1 billion of long positions were liquidated earlier in November, which could reduce the risk of forced selling if prices dip further. The asset's next major move will likely depend on whether macro pressure eases or intensifies into the December Fed decision.

Where Things Stand

Bitcoin remains under pressure from rising rate expectations, a firm dollar and steady ETF outflows. Investors will watch October producer prices on November 13, the December 8 and 9 Fed meeting and daily ETF flow data. The Strategy index removal after November 30 is another event that could affect sentiment toward the asset class.