Key Highlights

  • Brent crude settled 31 cents, or 0.3%, lower at USD 109.55 on Monday, October 19, 2026, the benchmark tracked by the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:BNO), after trading more than USD 3 lower intraday.
  • The decline followed an executive order from President Trump waiving sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act, which targets the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, according to Reuters reporting.
  • Houthi forces claimed strikes on Saudi energy sites at Yanbu and Shaybah, and a tanker exploded after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz. These claims could not be independently verified in the sources used here.
  • Intraday readings differ by provider: one showed Brent down 1.9% at USD 107.80, while a later report put the session peak at USD 110.70, so the settlement is the reference figure.

What Happened on October 19

The United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:BNO) holds Brent futures, and the benchmark had a wide but ultimately flat session on Monday, October 19, 2026. Brent settled at USD 109.55, down 31 cents, after falling more than USD 3 at one point, according to Reuters. One provider showed a low near USD 107.80 and West Texas Intermediate down about 1% near USD 100.40. A Reuters report the following morning put the previous session's peak at USD 110.70, the highest since May 20. The selling followed the Russia waiver signed on Friday, while the recovery tracked Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi energy sites. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the administration would take up to 60 days to assess the economic impact.

Why Gulf Risk Outweighed the Russia Waiver

The two forces work through different channels. The waiver removes a threat to Russian export volumes, because buyers no longer face penalties, so it lowers the risk of lost supply in the future. The Houthi claims and the Hormuz mine strike hit barrels that move now, through Red Sea and Gulf routes. Analysts quoted by Reuters said uncertainty over how long the waiver lasts limits confidence in extra supply. Physical disruption tends to dominate in front-month prices, which is where the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:BNO) holds its exposure. A fund rolling near-dated contracts gains most from a supply premium and loses most when it fades, so the intraday swing of more than USD 3 shows how sensitive that exposure is.

Risks and What to Watch

The main risk for the United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:BNO) is a fall in the Gulf risk premium, for example through a ceasefire or verified recovery of exports from the region. A second risk is that the Russia waiver becomes permanent after the review, adding supply over time. The claimed Saudi strikes are a third uncertainty: if damage proves limited, the premium could deflate quickly. The 10-year Treasury yield near 5.1% also weighs on demand expectations. Investors should watch Saudi statements on the Yanbu and Shaybah sites, the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27 to 28, the US midterm elections on November 3 and the end of the 60-day review.

Where Things Stand

The answer is that the Gulf, not Russia, set the price on October 19, and Brent finished almost where it started. The waiver pulled prices down in the morning, but physical risk to Saudi and Hormuz flows brought them back. The next catalysts are confirmation of damage at the Saudi sites, the Fed decision on October 28, the midterms on November 3 and the outcome of the review. Oil prices can move sharply on unverified reports, and this is not investment advice.