Key Highlights

  • California Resources (NYSE:CRC) guides to USD 1.2 billion to USD 1.3 billion of 2026 adjusted EBITDAX on Brent at USD 84.51, about USD 30 below the USD 114.52 Brent level on October 26, 2026.
  • Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO) realized USD 99.47 per barrel of oil before hedges in the second quarter, but its third quarter collars carry a ceiling of USD 74.80 on 21,000 barrels per day.
  • Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG) realized USD 90.02 per barrel before hedges and USD 69.37 after them, produced 145,659 barrels of oil equivalent per day and pays a USD 0.45 quarterly dividend.
  • Crescent Energy (NYSE:CRGY) produced 335 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, realized USD 96.61 per barrel before hedges and USD 73.33 after, and raised 2026 production guidance to 327 to 335 thousand.

California Resources (NYSE:CRC): Oil-Weighted Output With Conservative Guidance

California Resources produces about 149 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, roughly 81% oil, and realized USD 91.55 per barrel before derivative settlements in the second quarter, USD 76.43 after them. Guidance assumes Brent at USD 84.51, so spot crude of USD 114.52 points to upside, though the release gave no sensitivity table. Second quarter free Cash Flow was USD 114 million and Berry Merger synergies reached USD 103 million of annualized savings. The stock was USD 54.54 with a 2.97% yield, and a USD 0.405 Dividend was declared. California permitting is the structural risk, and California Resources (NYSE:CRC) also carries a proposed Elk Hills Data Center project that was loss-making in electricity in the quarter. Third quarter results are expected in early November. The third quarter guide is production of 151 to 154 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and adjusted EBITDAX of USD 285 million to USD 325 million. A takeaway-related inventory build of about 137 thousand barrels cut second quarter EBITDAX by about USD 25 million. Debt was USD 1.281 billion after a USD 550 million notes refinancing, and Liquidity was USD 1.322 billion, so California Resources (NYSE:CRC) has room to fund its five-rig California program.

Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO): Deepwater Barrels Behind Hedge Ceilings

Talos Energy produced 93.7 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, about 73% oil, with adjusted EBITDA of USD 402.4 million, or USD 476.3 million excluding hedges, so protection cost about USD 74 million in the quarter. For the third quarter it holds swaps at USD 67.77 and collars between USD 61.67 and USD 74.80, covering roughly 37% of oil volume, simple arithmetic on its hedge book. Net debt was USD 672.4 million, or 0.5 times, and the company agreed to buy Gulf of America deepwater Assets from Shell, reported near USD 850 million. At USD 18.38 and a trailing EPS of negative USD 2.39, Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO) is a recovery story. Monument first production is expected by year end, and hurricanes and project timing are the main risks. The Daenerys appraisal results are due by year end. Capital spending is guided at USD 500 million to USD 550 million, interest expense at USD 155 million to USD 165 million, and the borrowing base rises from USD 700 million to USD 850 million when the Shell deal closes, which helps Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO) fund the purchase.

Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG): Non-Operated Stakes and a 6.37% Yield

Northern Oil and Gas owns non-operated stakes, so it relies on drillers to execute, but it generated USD 159.0 million of free cash flow in the second quarter and USD 401.0 million of adjusted EBITDA. The USD 0.45 dividend annualizes to USD 1.80, a 6.37% Yield on USD 28.27, and the company bought back about 2.95 million shares at USD 20.37. Oil swaps of 18,245 barrels per day at USD 67.55 hold back part of the rally, and a first half Impairment of USD 268.3 million explains the trailing EPS of negative USD 5.18. The Duvernay joint development closed June 1 for USD 262.1 million. A Gulf settlement that cut crude below USD 70 would erase much of the unhedged benefit for Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG). Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG) guides production at 143,000 to 148,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day with capital of USD 850 million to USD 900 million, and the company reported USD 1.0 billion of liquidity. Third quarter oil collars have a floor of USD 62.34 and a ceiling of USD 71.44, so the upside is further limited by hedges.

Crescent Energy (NYSE:CRGY): Scale After the Vital Energy Deal

Crescent Energy reported Net Income of USD 493.7 million, adjusted EBITDAX of USD 797.9 million and levered free cash flow of USD 417.7 million, with net Leverage of 1.6 times and net debt of USD 4.901 billion. The gap between USD 96.61 and USD 73.33 per barrel shows how much hedging absorbed, and acquired derivative contracts settled for USD 62.1 million. Permian synergies from the Vital Energy Acquisition are targeted at USD 250 million to USD 300 million, with about USD 190 million captured. The stock was USD 13.80 with a 3.47% yield, and a USD 0.12 quarterly dividend. Integration and hedge drag are the main risks, while third quarter results will arrive after the close on November 2, 2026, with a call on November 3. Crescent Energy (NYSE:CRGY) guides development capital at USD 1.325 billion to USD 1.425 billion, and the company redeemed the remaining USD 259 million of 7.75% notes in July. Liquidity was about USD 2.2 billion, and USD 336 million of buyback authorization remains, so Crescent Energy (NYSE:CRGY) has flexibility if oil holds.

Where Things Stand

Oil near USD 100 is a clear tailwind for all four, but hedges decide how much arrives. California Resources (NYSE:CRC) has the strongest unhedged leverage against its USD 84.51 guidance assumption. Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO) has hedge ceilings near USD 74.80. Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE:NOG) swaps sit near USD 68. Crescent Energy (NYSE:CRGY) lost about USD 23 per barrel to hedges in the second quarter. A Gulf settlement would cut the benefit quickly, and the next reports are due in early November.