Key Highlights

  • The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 289.7 million barrels, its lowest level since 1982, after years of releases under two administrations.
  • The reserve could drop to roughly 243 million barrels if a final batch of 39 million barrels is released as part of a March agreement coordinated with the International Energy Agency.
  • A Government Accountability Office report found the reserve's drawdown, distribution, and Fill capabilities are limited and at risk due to aging infrastructure and ongoing construction.
  • US law generally bars routine drawdowns below 252.4 million barrels, though the president retains authority to order releases during major emergencies.

A Reserve Stretched Thin After Years of Releases

Six months into the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, Washington may find it harder to calm jittery oil markets after successive administrations drew down the aging Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the past five years. The reserve, created after the oil crises of the 1970s and held in a series of 60 underground salt caverns along the Texas and Louisiana coasts, now sits at its lowest level since 1982, holding just 289.7 million barrels.

That level could fall further, to around 243 million barrels, if a final batch of 39 million barrels is released as part of a March agreement with the International Energy Agency. More than 30 countries agreed at the time to a record release of 400 million barrels, with the US contributing 172 million barrels, in an effort to stabilize markets after the US and Israel launched their campaign against Iran on February 28.

Physical Risks Mount as Levels Drop

Oil in the reserve's caverns, some as tall as the Empire State Building, floats on top of water, and the water level rises as more oil is released, a process that can damage cavern walls as well as the pipes and pumps used to draw out crude. A Department of Energy source said the reserve's minimum operating level is 70 million barrels, though a professor of petroleum engineering at a major US university said the practical floor for safe operations sits closer to 250 million barrels. He said the core mission of the reserve is to Supply markets rapidly during a crisis, but that operating below roughly 250 million barrels pushes the infrastructure into a dangerous zone.

Trump said Sunday that the US would refill the reserve using Venezuelan oil, though it remains unclear how quickly that could meaningfully replenish stockpiles or ease gasoline prices. Washington is expected to finalize an agreement with Caracas that would give the US access to a significant share of Venezuela's proved crude reserves. The 172 million barrels released earlier this year were structured as a Loan that companies must repay with interest in the form of roughly 40 million barrels of additional oil, a Volume equivalent to about two days of US consumption. That repayment is not scheduled to begin until later this year and is not expected to be completed until late 2028. An energy analyst said in a research note that whether the US ships Venezuelan oil directly into the reserve or sells it to fund separate purchases, a full replenishment could take years and risks being interrupted by upcoming elections in both countries.

A Long-Building Shortfall

The reserve's depletion has been building for years. The US oil boom that began in 2008 turned the country into a net total petroleum exporter, meaning an International Energy Agency requirement for member countries to store 90 days of net petroleum imports no longer applies to Washington. Beginning in 2021, the prior administration released about 230 million barrels in coordination with international partners to dampen prices, including a record 180 million barrel sale following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Washington had started replenishing the reserve after those releases, but the war with Iran halted that effort, and funding has since run short. Congress provided just $171 million for reserve replenishment last year, far below the roughly $20 billion analysts estimated would have been needed at the time.

Legal Limits and Structural Concerns

Some restrictions are already visible. US law prohibits the president from ordering routine, small drawdowns once the reserve falls below 252.4 million barrels, though the president retains authority to order releases in the event of major emergencies. A Government Accountability Office report issued in May found that the reserve's caverns are generally in good physical condition, but flagged concerns about the integrity of aging wells that require ongoing maintenance work. The report concluded that the reserve's ability to quickly draw down and refill oil is currently limited and remains at risk going forward due to longstanding infrastructure issues compounded by major construction projects intended to address them.

Fewer Tools to Respond to Future Shocks

A senior associate at a Washington-based security and climate policy center said at a recent public event that the reserve's level is precariously low, and that the shrinking cushion of crude reserves, combined with OPEC's dwindling ability to rapidly increase output, leaves the US with less policy flexibility to respond to future disruptions. A director at a Federal Reserve regional bank's energy research center said Market Participants are likely to grow more concerned as the reserve approaches its practical floor, and may increasingly question whether releasing whatever oil remains would be enough to calm markets during a future crisis. He warned that if the reserve is tapped much further, it would likely push oil prices higher and weigh on the broader economy, since once inventories are effectively exhausted, Demand destruction becomes the primary mechanism left to correct a supply shortage.