Key Highlights

• US intelligence reports suggest Iran has grown more confident in its military capabilities and appears determined to continue the conflict for months.

• Iran-linked hackers were most likely responsible for cyberattacks on more than 100 US water systems in late July, requiring manual overrides in some cases.

• Officials believe Iran understands the war's economic toll, including higher gas prices, is politically damaging to President Trump ahead of the midterms.

• A domestic Iranian media analysis found more than 1,200 Persian-language articles in two weeks framing the war as a political Liability for Trump.

A Pattern That Mirrors Earlier Escalations

Officials say Iran could in the coming weeks repeat actions similar to those taken in July, when it struck American military bases in the Middle East, killed three Americans in Jordan, hit shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and struck infrastructure in Kuwait. US officials also believe Iran-linked hackers were most likely behind cyberattacks on more than 100 water systems across the United States in late July. While no system was degraded in a way that made water unsafe to drink, the attacks required manual overrides in some cases and prompted precautionary boil-water advisories. Officials say the hackers have shown continued interest in American oil and gas infrastructure, though those systems are generally considered harder to penetrate, and it remains unclear whether any energy systems have actually been breached.

A former US government Cybersecurity contractor who tracks Iranian hacking groups said Iran's cyber operators likely feel emboldened following recent activity, adding that even unsuccessful attacks can serve a broader goal of exhausting American domestic patience with the war. Vice President JD Vance acknowledged at a briefing that such attacks could erode public support further, while seeking to downplay the direct threat to Americans, saying Iran's ability to disrupt ordinary life in the United States is "quite limited."

Political Calculations on Both Sides

Representative Jason Crow, a Colorado Democrat and member of the Intelligence Committee, said Iran believes it is in a stronger position for several reasons, including a more unified leadership, a silenced internal opposition, and a continuing stockpile of missiles and drones. He said Iran has developed a more precise understanding of the Leverage it holds over the Strait of Hormuz, which carried a fifth of the world's oil before the war began. Other officials briefed on the intelligence believe Iran calculates that the US military will struggle to mount major new strikes as its munitions stockpiles dwindle.

Iran appears to understand that the war, and the higher gas prices its closure of the strait has caused, is politically damaging to Trump and the Republican Party. Representative Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat, said Iran believes it holds maximum leverage and has little incentive to change course. There are signs Iran is actively working to spread propaganda aimed at undermining Trump electorally, similar to efforts during the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. Meta recently disclosed a small network of Iran-linked accounts on Facebook and Instagram focused on American politics, some content generated using artificial intelligence, that included anti-Republican messaging. A threat intelligence firm separately found more than 1,200 Persian-language articles published domestically in Iran within a two-week span referencing both Trump and the midterms, with the dominant framing being that the war has become a political liability for him.

Conclusion

The intelligence assessments suggest a war that both sides increasingly view through a political rather than purely military lens, with Iran calculating that its ability to absorb damage while imposing economic and political costs on Washington outweighs any near-term incentive to negotiate. Whether that calculation holds through the midterm elections, or whether continued economic pressure eventually forces a shift in Tehran's approach, will likely determine how much longer the current pattern of intermittent escalation persists.