Key Highlights

  • The share of US data centre projects delayed or cancelled has held steady near 10% over the past year.
  • Pennsylvania's governor targeted "speculative proposals," noting fewer than one in five of over 100 announced projects had sought permits.
  • Analysts discount data centre capacity credibility by company type, trusting established tech firms while heavily discounting newer "neo-cloud" entrants.
  • Texas's grid operator has received connection requests for roughly 474 gigawatts, over five times the state's current peak demand.

Political Opposition to Data Centres Has Intensified Ahead of Midterms

Data centre developments have become a politically charged issue in several US states as officials seek to appear responsive to public concerns about the projects, which are often viewed by nearby communities as noisy, power-intensive, and disruptive. In Utah, a large proposed data centre project drew scrutiny after analysts questioned the credibility of its backing, and following political pressure, the state Senate president who had initially supported the project called for its scale to be reduced by three-quarters. The developer ultimately agreed to scale back plans, though the episode also contributed to primary election losses for some of the officials who had initially supported it.

In Pennsylvania, the governor signed an executive order in August targeting what he described as developers "scaring our communities" with proposals unlikely to be built. Of more than 100 data centre projects announced in the state, fewer than one in five had applied for the permits required to advance them, according to the governor's office. In Texas, the governor announced an audit of pending data centre projects in early August, an effort expected to conclude shortly after November's midterm elections. Some of the largest data centre operators in the state have publicly supported the audit.

Analysts Have Developed Ways to Distinguish Credible Projects From Speculative Ones

Given the gap between announced capacity and projects that are actually likely to be built, analysts have developed methods to assess the credibility of each watt of announced data centre capacity. Plans from established technology companies are generally taken at face value, while projects from newer entrants described as "neo-cloud" operators are discounted by roughly half, and some highly speculative proposals are effectively disregarded entirely in capacity estimates.

One large proposed Facility in Arizona, announced by a land banking firm, was reportedly cut by four-fifths earlier this year following local opposition. Limited information is available about a separate large project in south Florida that was reportedly shelved in February. In each case, the scaling back of a project that was unlikely to be completed in its originally announced form has nonetheless generated significant public attention.

Some State Policies Have Had Limited Practical Effect

Several recent state actions targeting data centres appear to have narrower practical impact than their public framing suggests. New York's governor announced a one-year moratorium on large data centre projects in July, but the policy does not apply to projects that had already received approval, and New York represents a relatively small share of the broader national data centre build-out. Virginia imposed an electricity tax on data centres, but left in place a Sales Tax exemption for the industry worth roughly three times as much as the new tax. Pennsylvania's new rules require local approval before state-level approval can proceed, a sequencing change that effectively delays final decisions until after the November elections.

Constraints From the Market Have Mattered More Than Politics So Far

Despite the intensity of political attention, the share of the overall US data centre pipeline that has been delayed or cancelled has remained roughly constant at around 10% over the past year, even as the total number of announced projects has grown substantially. Availability of chips and skilled workers has posed a greater practical constraint on developers than government action to date. Texas illustrates the scale of underlying demand: the state's electricity grid operator has received requests to connect roughly 474 gigawatts of new capacity, more than five times the state's current peak Demand of approximately 90 gigawatts.

Conclusion

The gap between the scale of political rhetoric surrounding data centres and the relatively steady rate of actual project cancellations suggests that much of the current opposition functions as electoral positioning rather than a durable check on the broader AI infrastructure build-out. Whether that dynamic changes will likely depend on how state-level policies evolve after November's midterm elections, and on whether market constraints such as chip and labor availability become more binding than political intervention as the Volume of proposed projects continues to grow.