Key Highlights

  • The United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) tracks WTI futures, which rose 2.5% to USD 92.70 on October 1, 2026, while Brent topped USD 100 on a report that PetroChina canceled October gasoline and jet fuel cargoes, following a 14% September surge.
  • SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) holds physical gold, which traded near USD 4,182 per ounce, up 0.59% on the day but down 4.68% over the past month and about 25% below its January record of USD 5,608.35.
  • The iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) holds physical silver, which traded near USD 61.24, up 1.37% on the day, down 6.25% over the month and up 30.32% over twelve months, putting the gold-silver ratio near 68.
  • Bitcoin (BTC) traded near USD 83,500 after failing to hold USD 85,000, as spot ETFs recorded a USD 148.69 million outflow on September 30, ending a nine-day inflow streak worth about USD 3.1 billion.

United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO): A Supply Squeeze With Two Faces

The United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) holds near-term WTI futures, and oil reversed earlier losses on October 1 to rise more than 2%. Brent topped USD 100 and November WTI reached USD 92.70 after a report that PetroChina canceled a handful of gasoline and jet fuel cargoes planned for October. The report cited unnamed sources, so it is reported rather than confirmed. Crude flows from the Middle East are reportedly near pre-war levels as Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, but gasoline is lagging, which explains why fuel can tighten while crude recovers. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 283.8 million barrels, the lowest since 1982. The United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) rose 1.61% to USD 145.66 on September 30, according to published market data. Standard Chartered raised its 2027 Brent forecast to USD 89.50 from USD 77.50, arguing that supply buffers are thin. In the latest weekly data, US gasoline stocks fell 1.7 million barrels and distillates 2.3 million barrels. A US-Iran deal that reopens shipping would likely lower prices, while military action would be supportive, and talks stalled this week after Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation to leave New York.

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD): Yields Beat the Haven Bid

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) tracks a metal that pays no interest, and that is its weakness in a high-yield world. The 10-year Treasury Yield sits near 5.2%, the dollar index is near a yearly high around 101.80 and traders price about a 38% chance of a Federal Reserve hike on October 28. Gold is up 0.59% on the day at about USD 4,182 but down 4.68% in a month and about 25% below its record, simple arithmetic on two published numbers. It is still up about 8.5% from a year ago. Higher oil would normally help gold through Inflation fears, but it has lifted yields instead. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) would benefit from a softer jobs report on Friday. The Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16, and softer August inflation of 3.4% against 3.7% expected trimmed October hike odds from 50% to 38% in a day. Platinum and palladium were also lower early on October 1. The September jobs report, forecast at about 90,000 jobs, could move yields in either direction.

iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV): Industrial Demand Meets Rate Pressure

The iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) follows a metal with both monetary and industrial roles. Silver rose 1.37% to about USD 61.24 on October 1 but has fallen 6.25% in a month, even though it is up 30.32% over twelve months. That outperformance versus gold shows in the gold-silver ratio near 68. Higher yields and a stronger dollar hurt silver as they hurt gold, while factory data matter because industrial uses support demand. The ISM Manufacturing index, due at 10:00 a.m. ET and forecast at 54.8, is therefore relevant. Silver is also more volatile than gold, so moves are larger in both directions. The iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV) is the most exposed of the metals to a hot jobs report. Silver is thinly traded compared with gold, so Liquidity can thin quickly in sharp sell-offs. Spot silver traded above USD 61.30 at one point on October 1, a gain of nearly 2%. A strong dollar, which stood near 101.14 on the morning of September 30, makes dollar-priced metals more expensive for foreign buyers.

Bitcoin (BTC): Flows Turn After a Strong Streak

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near USD 83,500 on October 1 after failing to hold a move above USD 85,000, with support near USD 82,000 and resistance near USD 86,000. Spot ETFs had added about USD 3.1 billion over nine sessions, including USD 2.39 billion in the week ending September 25, the strongest since October 2025. Then a USD 148.69 million outflow on September 30 snapped the streak as Treasury yields near 5.3% and a stronger dollar weighed on risk appetite. Bitcoin (BTC) is about 35% below its record of USD 128,198 from October 6, 2025, simple arithmetic. One-year and five-year drawdown figures were not verified for this article. The price remains above its 50-day average near USD 75,700 and 200-day average near USD 71,000. Ethereum (ETH) trades near USD 2,717, and spot Ether funds have drawn about USD 14 billion in cumulative inflows. XRP (XRP) trades near USD 1.51. Analysts say institutional buying may be losing momentum if outflows continue, and a hot jobs report on Friday is a risk.

Where Things Stand

By distance from its record, the largest Cryptocurrency is under the most pressure at about 35% below its high, ahead of gold at about 25%, while silver has had the steepest one-month decline at 6.25%. Oil is the only one of the four pushing higher on supply fears. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD) faces yield and dollar headwinds. The same pressures capped Bitcoin (BTC) near USD 83,500. The balance of evidence is mixed: oil is tight, metals are weak and crypto flows have turned. The next catalysts are Friday's jobs report, the Fed's October 28 decision and the US-Iran talks.

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