Index Update

US equities closed mixed on Friday as investors weighed corporate earnings and interest-rate prospects. The S&P 500 edged higher, the Dow gained 236 points and the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.1%, pressured by weakness in semiconductor and AI-linked stocks. Intel fell 7.9%, while Tesla and Meta declined amid concerns over AI capital spending. Higher oil prices and Treasury yields reinforced expectations of potential Federal Reserve tightening, while American Express dropped 4.3% following its results and Verizon gained 5.8% on stronger-than-expected subscriber growth.

Market Movers

Among the top-performing stocks of the session STAK Inc. surged 602.27%, while Wearable Devices Ltd. rallied 58.30%. On the losing side, Robin Energy Ltd. fell 43.66%, while Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc declined 39.66%, making them the weakest performers during the trading day.

Commodities Update

WTI crude declined toward USD 83 per barrel and Brent toward USD 89 on Monday, giving back some of last week’s gains after the US and Iran paused reciprocal strikes and signalled openness to renewed diplomatic talks. However, supply risks remained elevated as Iran-backed Houthi forces claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco-linked facilities at the Red Sea ports of Jizan and Yanbu. Despite the pullback, oil prices remain nearly 40% higher this month as disruptions have spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, a key alternative route for Saudi crude exports.

Gold rose 1% toward USD 4,100 per ounce and silver gained more than 2% toward USD 60 on Monday, rebounding from nine- and eight-month lows, respectively. The recovery followed a sharp decline in oil prices after the US and Iran paused reciprocal strikes, easing concerns over supply disruptions and inflation. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve, which is expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday before potentially raising them in September, although some investors anticipate an earlier move amid lingering inflationary pressures.

Macro Updates

Dollar Retreats as Geopolitical and Inflation Concerns Ease

The US Dollar Index slipped toward 101.2 on Monday, surrendering some of last week’s gains as lower oil prices and the pause in US–Iran hostilities eased supply and inflation concerns. Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with rates expected to remain unchanged, alongside upcoming Q2 GDP, PCE inflation data and major corporate earnings for further signals on the US economic outlook.

Bonds Commentary

The US 10-year Treasury yield declined to around 4.64% on Monday from a six-month high as falling oil prices and the pause in US–Iran hostilities eased supply-disruption and inflation concerns. Investors now await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged, alongside Q2 GDP, PCE inflation data and major corporate earnings for further signals on the economic outlook.

Futures Update

US stock futures advanced on Monday as easing energy prices reduced macroeconomic and inflation concerns following a pause in US–Iran hostilities. S&P 500 and Dow futures rose around 1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained nearly 1.5%, supported by lower Treasury yields and diminished expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week. Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Apple advanced ahead of upcoming earnings, while Nvidia lagged with a 0.5% gain amid renewed concerns over interconnected AI financing and spending commitments.

Following Thursday's sharp sell-off, stocks experienced heightened volatility on Friday. The major averages rallied strongly in early trading but surrendered most of those gains as selling pressure intensified during the afternoon session. The S&P 500 retains a slightly bearish intraday outlook, having slipped below its 21-day EMA (7,475) while finding support near its 50-day EMA (7,411). The RSI (14) has eased to around 45, reflecting weakening momentum without signaling oversold conditions. Holding above the 50-day EMA keeps the broader uptrend intact and leaves room for a rebound toward the 7,475–7,500 resistance zone. However, a sustained break below 7,410 would strengthen the bearish case and could trigger a move toward the 7,320–7,350 support area.