Market Weekly Recap: Geopolitical Risks, Fed Policy Watch, and Commodity Volatility Drive Moves

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Index Update: U.S. markets saw sharp declines, with major indexes falling after Israel’s strike on Iran escalated into open conflict, prompting further attacks on energy infrastructure and driving oil prices higher. Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz added to market anxiety. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady despite growing pressure for policy easing, as it navigates geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty.

Market Movers: On Friday, the top gainers were Robin Energy Ltd (+317.91%), followed by Houston American Energy Corporation (+119.19%). On the contrary SharpLink Gaming, Inc (-71.69%) and K Wave Media, Ltd (- 50.6%) declined the most the same day.

Commodities Update: Oil prices eased after sharp rallies, as investors dialed back risk-off trades amid signs that the Israel-Iran conflict may not escalate further. WTI and Brent crude futures retreated despite recent surges, with traders reassured that Iran’s oil infrastructure remains intact. However, renewed strikes and concerns over potential disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz kept geopolitical risks elevated, as about 20% of global oil consumption passes through this key chokepoint. Gold prices slipped but stayed near record highs, supported by safe-haven demand amid Middle East tensions. Markets remain focused on upcoming central bank decisions, particularly the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, with expectations for potential rate cuts later this year reinforced by soft inflation data. Investors are also watching for updates on U.S. trade policy as tariff decisions loom.

Macro Update: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose above 4.43% as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic factors fueled inflation concerns, reducing hopes for dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. With energy prices surging amid Israel-Iran hostilities, markets expect the Fed to keep rates steady, while looking to the upcoming projections for insight on how policymakers’ views align with Wall Street’s expectations for rate cuts this year.

Futures Update: U.S. stock index futures moved higher as markets attempted to rebound from sharp losses in the prior week, with investors looking ahead to an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Major indexes had recently declined, pressured by heightened Middle East tensions following airstrikes between Israel and Iran, which weighed on market sentiment and led to weekly losses across the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

After a predominantly upward trend during the previous trading session, stocks experienced a sharp decline on Friday. The S&P 500 dropped by 68.29 points, or 1.1%, closing at 5,976.97. From a technical analysis standpoint, the index is currently near a confluence zone and has formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, indicating a potential period of consolidation in the short term. Nonetheless, the index remains above its key exponential moving averages, which bolsters a positive outlook and suggests these levels could act as near-term support. The primary support level is around 5,888, while resistance is anticipated near 6,066.