US Market Recap: Tech Selloff, Softer Oil, and Hawkish Fed Signals Shape Sentiment

Index Update

US stocks closed lower on Tuesday as a sharp selloff in semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks dragged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 1.4% and 3.3%, respectively. Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Micron, Qualcomm, and Sandisk posted steep losses amid concerns over slowing AI spending and returns from hyperscaler investments. Elevated Treasury yields also pressured sentiment, though defensive strength in healthcare and consumer staples helped the Dow finish near flat.

Market Movers

Among the top-performing stocks of the session Focus Universal Inc. surged 89.23%, while Boundless Bio, Inc. rallied 85.71%. On the losing side, Nexentis Technologies Inc. fell 55.31%, while STAK Inc. declined 30.84%, making them the weakest performers during the trading day.

Commodities Update

WTI crude fell below USD 72 per barrel and Brent crude dropped below USD 76 per barrel, reaching their lowest levels since early March, as improving tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran peace talks eased supply disruption concerns. Market sentiment was further supported by the resumption of Gulf exports, with the International Energy Agency estimating that the UAE is shipping oil at nearly 85% of pre-conflict levels and has recently exported around 60 million barrels from the region. As a result, oil prices have retreated roughly 40% from their wartime highs. However, some supply tightness remains in the US, with Cushing crude inventories declining by 1 million barrels, raising concerns about inventories approaching minimum operating levels.

Gold fell below USD 4,100 per ounce and silver traded near USD 61 per ounce on Wednesday, remaining near multi-month lows as expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy weighed on precious metals. While the interim US-Iran peace agreement and improving traffic through the Strait of Hormuz helped ease inflation concerns by supporting energy supply flows, Fed officials signaled growing support for future rate hikes and Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his commitment to restoring price stability. Additionally, a sharp decline in US technology stocks triggered broader portfolio rebalancing, prompting investors to reduce holdings in gold and silver, adding further pressure to prices.

Macro Updates

US Mortgage Demand Rebounds Slightly

US mortgage applications rose 1% in the week ended June 19, 2026, recovering from a 3.8% decline in the prior week, as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate eased slightly to 6.59%. Refinancing activity increased 3%, while home purchase applications slipped 0.6%, with borrowing costs still elevated amid hawkish Fed expectations despite easing oil-driven inflation concerns.

US Crude Inventories Continue to Tighten

US crude inventories fell by 765,000 barrels in the week ended June 19, extending recent declines after an 8.33 million-barrel draw in the prior week. Commercial inventories have dropped sharply over ten weeks, though SPR releases helped offset the decline, with reserves falling to 331.2 million barrels, their lowest in over four decades, while US crude production edged up to 13.806 million barrels per day.

Dollar Commentary

The dollar index held near 101.4 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level in over a year, as stronger expectations of Fed rate hikes and a technology-led equity selloff boosted safe-haven demand. Markets now price in about a 70% chance of a September rate increase, while investors await the upcoming PCE inflation report for further policy cues.

Futures Update

US equity futures edged higher as semiconductor stocks attempted to recover from the prior session’s selloff, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.5% and Micron gaining premarket ahead of earnings. Nvidia, Lam Research, and Sandisk also pointed higher, while elevated yields and potential Fed rate hikes kept broader market sentiment cautious.

Following the sharp decline in the previous session, stocks remained under pressure on Tuesday, extending their losses as the tech-heavy Nasdaq led the downturn, while the Dow recorded comparatively milder declines. The S&P 500 is exhibiting a cautious near-term outlook, currently trading around 7,365 after slipping below its 21-day EMA at 7,439, although it continues to hold above the 50-day EMA at 7,315. Recent price action suggests fading bullish momentum, as the index has struggled to sustain gains near record highs and selling pressure has intensified on rallies. Momentum indicators have also weakened, with the RSI retreating to around 47, signaling a neutral-to-bearish bias in the short term. As long as the index remains below the 21-day EMA, sentiment is likely to stay subdued, with the 50-day EMA serving as key support. A decisive move back above the 7,440 level would be required to restore bullish momentum.