Can a 16.5 Percent Nasdaq Rally Keep Running After Its First Record Since June Faded Within a Week?

Key Highlights

• The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,122.09 on September 21, its first record close since June 2, after a 2.26 percent jump led by the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX).
• By September 28 the index had slipped 0.92 percent to 26,820.38, about 1.1 percent below that peak, as the 10-year Treasury Yield climbed to roughly 5.21 percent.
• The Nasdaq was up 16.5 percent year to date through September 25, ahead of the S&P 500 at 13.1 percent, keeping the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) in focus.
• Micron results and August PCE Inflation data arrive on September 30, followed by the September jobs report on October 2.

A Chip-Powered Record on September 21

The record session was driven by semiconductors. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) rose 4.9 percent. Intel gained 12 percent and Arm Holdings surged 17 percent. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) climbed 10 percent to an all-time high, lifting its Market Value past USD 1 trillion after the company raised chip prices by 10 percent. Meta Platforms added 11 percent as its Muse AI agent topped Apple's App Store. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 4 basis points to roughly 4.96 percent as Brent Crude dropped 3.7 percent to about USD 100 a barrel. The Nasdaq's 2.26 percent gain outpaced the S&P 500's 1.49 percent advance, and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) remained the most direct listed vehicle for that growth tilt.

From Record to Retreat

The Nasdaq finished the week ended September 25 up 2.06 percent at 27,068.72, just 0.2 percent below the record. The Reversal came on September 28, when President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose about 4.1 percent to USD 108.59 and the 10-year yield reached about 5.21 percent, its highest since 2007. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.92 percent, the S&P 500 slid 0.77 percent to 7,683.69 and more than 65 percent of US issues declined. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) fell 5.76 percent to USD 115.92, although it remains up roughly 220 percent in 2026. Nvidia rose about 1.7 percent after adding USD 150 billion to its buyback. For holders of the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), the session showed how sensitive growth Assets remain to long yields.

Why the Nasdaq Still Leads September

The Nasdaq is still up roughly 1.7 percent in September, the only major index clearly higher. The Dow is down about 3.2 percent this month and the Russell 2000 about 4.7 percent. Earnings support the lead: FactSet expects S&P 500 third-quarter earnings growth of 29.1 percent, and Taiwan Semiconductor reported August Revenue up 53.3 percent year over year. Skeptics remain. Michael Burry has disclosed added short positions in the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX), citing building chip inventories. Micron (NASDAQ:MU) reports on September 30 against revenue guidance of USD 50.0 billion, the quarter's first hard test of AI memory pricing. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) heads into quarter end with strong momentum and concentrated event risk.

Where Things Stand

Yes, the rally can keep running, but only if yields cooperate. The Nasdaq Composite is the only major index clearly positive in September, yet the retreat from its 27,122.09 record shows how quickly a 5 percent 10-year yield and USD 108 Brent crude can interrupt chip-led momentum. Investors tracking the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) face Micron and PCE data on September 30, payrolls on October 2 and an October 28 FOMC meeting where CME FedWatch put hike odds at 72.5 percent as of September 28. A return to record territory likely requires steadier Treasury yields and a clean read from AI suppliers.