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Can 84,000 new jobs and a 4.1 percent unemployment rate keep the Fed on hold when the September report lands at 8:30 a.m. ET?

The Dow Jones consensus is 84,000 new jobs with unemployment unchanged at 4.1 percent. Wells Fargo andCreditAgricole both look for about 90,000, a survey of economists points to about 100,000 with a possible rise in unemployment to 4.2 percent, and Danske Bank expects 100,000 …

Vinay Lochav | 02 October 2026

Can 3.1 percent wage growth, or a 0.4 percent monthly jump, decide whether an October Fed hike returns to pricing?

Payrolls show how many jobs were added, but average hourly earnings show whether labor costs are feeding inflation. Fed officials have said they are more concerned aboutInflationthan about hiring, so a hot wage figure carries more policy weight than a strongJobcount. Forecasts expect 3.1 …

Vinay Lochav | 02 October 2026

Which 72 percent probability is Wall Street pricing for a Fed hold in October after bond yields hit 24-year highs?

Hike odds fell sharply this week for three reasons: a softer August core PCEInflationreading, comments from Fed officials favoring patience, and soft data elsewhere. Chair Kevin Warsh said after the September meeting thatUnemploymentis running consistent withFull Employmentand that officials are watching job openings, weekly …

Vinay Lochav | 02 October 2026

Which two Fed officials helped cut October hike odds below 30 percent by saying the central bank can take more time?

Jefferson, a permanent voter on the policy committee, echoed Williams's message from Tuesday that the Fed could take more time before deciding what to do next. Their comments arrived after a softer core PCE inflation reading for August. The message matters because both officials …

Vinay Lochav | 02 October 2026

Why did the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2002 before settling near 5.243 percent on October 2?

The yield rose less than 1 basis point on Friday morning to 5.243 percent, after a week in which global bond markets sold off. The driver was concern about stubborn inflation and hawkishCentral Bankcommentary, which raised expectations that interest rates stay elevated for longer. …

Vinay Lochav | 02 October 2026

Why did the 30-year Treasury yield reach its highest level in 24 years before easing to about 5.618 percent?

The 30-year yield reflects expected inflation, expected policy rates and a term premium, the extra return investorsDemandfor locking money up for decades. This week, concerns about stubborn inflation, hawkishCentral Bankcommentary and fiscal worries pushed yields up globally. Oil near USD 100 adds toInflationexpectations. The …

Vinay Lochav | 02 October 2026

How far has the 2-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.377 percent to 4.787 percent in four weeks, and what does it say about the Fed?

The 2-year yield is the market's best guide to expected Fed policy because it covers the next two years of decisions. After the August jobs report, it rose more than 4 basis points on the day to 4.377 percent, its highest since January 2025, …

Vinay Lochav | 02 October 2026

Can stock futures up 0.6 percent on the Nasdaq hold through an 8:30 a.m. ET jobs report after yields hit 24-year highs?

Futures rose early Friday as investors awaited September payrolls, with consensus at 84,000 jobs andUnemploymentat 4.1 percent. The gains grew after oil fell more than 3 percent on a report of a possible European diesel and crude stock release. Stocks have lately moved opposite …

Vinay Lochav | 02 October 2026

Why did European 10-year bond yields fall about 3 basis points on October 2 after a week of sharp selling?

Pressure on globalGovernment Bondseased elsewhere on Friday after the week's selloff, with European 10-year yields down about 3 basis points. The U.S. 10-year yield, by contrast, edged slightly higher. The divergence is small, and it shows yields are not moving in lockstep, though they …

Vinay Lochav | 02 October 2026

Which precious metal is down more than 3 percent this week at about USD 4,155 an ounce as Treasury yields hit 24-year highs?

Gold fell alongside silver, platinum and palladium, which points to a macro driver rather than a gold-specific problem. A firmer dollar and elevated yields reduce the appeal of an asset that pays no interest. When a 10-year Treasury pays about 5.243 percent, investors give …

Vinay Lochav | 02 October 2026
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