Key Highlights

● Cocoa fell 0.05% to $5,453.28 a tonne in Thursday's session.

● ICE-monitored cocoa stocks reached a 2.5-year high by 21 October.

● Ivorian port deliveries from 1 to 18 October were down 41% year on year.

● Asian third-quarter cocoa grindings rose a record 29%.

Cocoa fell 0.05% to US$5,453.28 a tonne in Thursday's session on 29 October, a nearly flat day in a market that has been drifting lower for a week. The pause arrives as chocolate makers such as Hershey (NYSE:HSY) are due to report third-quarter results on 29 October, with cocoa costs high on the list of questions.

The benchmark is ICE Futures US New York cocoa for December delivery (CCZ26), priced in US dollars per tonne. Cocoa is down 2.31% on the week but up 1.61% on the month, and it is 10.09% lower since the start of the year and 9.98% lower than a year ago. At today's level the price is about 57% below the record close of US$12,565 reached on 18 December 2024.

Short Crops Against Full Warehouses

Cocoa is caught between two facts. West African deliveries and early crop surveys point to less cocoa next season, while exchange warehouses hold the most cocoa in more than two years. A flat day like this one shows neither side winning.

Deliveries and Crop Surveys Point to Less Cocoa

Ivorian farmer deliveries to ports from 1 to 18 October totalled 78,212 tonnes, down 41% from 133,209 tonnes a year earlier, with heavy rain hindering access to farms. Early surveys point to a 2026/27 Ivorian crop of about 1.8 million tonnes, down 18%, and a Ghanaian crop of 650,000 tonnes, down 13%. El Niño risks add to concern about next season's output.

Stocks Cap Every Rally

Against that, ICE-monitored stocks reached 3,606,396 bags on 19 October, a 2.25-year high, and kept climbing to a 2.5-year high by 21 October. Large warehouse stocks show that beans are available to buyers, which tends to limit rallies. Certified stocks are only one measure of availability and do not capture beans still in West Africa or already with processors.

The wider balance has swung. The International Cocoa Organization now estimates a 2024/25 surplus of 37,000 tonnes, a reminder that the market has moved from shortage towards balance.

Grinding Data Split by Region

Third-quarter grindings, a measure of how much cocoa processors are using, were mixed. Asian grindings rose a record 29%, European grindings rose 3.2% and North American grindings fell 2.5% from a year earlier. The aggregate increase was 14.3%, which beat expectations.

Processors and chocolate makers are still struggling to pass on higher costs. A 7 October market report noted that Cargill reported mark-to-market losses on cocoa, a sign of how difficult the price swings have been for traders and processors.

What It Means for Chocolate Makers

Chocolate makers consume cocoa rather than produce it, so lower bean prices may ease input costs, but the effect depends on hedging, pricing power and volumes. Many manufacturers buy forward, so changes in spot prices reach margins with a lag.

Hershey is due to report third-quarter results on 29 October, and its commentary on cocoa costs, pricing and volumes will show how much of the current price level is feeding through. Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) also features in coverage of cocoa costs and candy prices, and its next report will add to the picture.

Cocoa Watch: Port Arrivals, Stock Reports and the March Roll

Weekly Ivorian port arrivals, ICE stock reports and the next regional grinding figures are the most direct data. West African weather and any government decisions on farmgate prices will shape the 2026/27 crop. Chocolate makers' earnings commentary will show how far cheaper or dearer beans are passing through to shelves.

Prices could be supported if the Ivorian main crop disappoints, if El Niño reduces West African rainfall or if Asian grindings keep improving. They could weaken if port arrivals recover, if inventories keep rising or if demand softens in North America and Europe.

The December contract approaches its delivery period in the coming weeks, so many data providers will switch their continuous quotes to March 2027, which can change headline comparisons.