Key Highlights

  • SpaceX fell 6.37% to $134.72, just below its $135 IPO price.
  • Third-quarter Revenue rose about 161% to $14.6 billion with a first profit.
  • A single AI computing customer accounted for about 34.5% of quarterly revenue.
  • T-Mobile said it sees no room for a wholesale deal with SpaceX.

What was billed as a historic IPO has, for now, left its first public buyers underwater. Space Exploration Technologies, better known as SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), fell 6.37% on Friday, October 30, to close at $134.72, a touch below the $135 price at which it went public in June. More than 122 million shares changed hands, roughly normal for a stock that has quickly become one of the most heavily traded on the market, and enough to put it among the most active US stocks by dollar value.

The slide was the third straight daily decline. SpaceX closed at $143.89 on Thursday after losses of 2.25% on October 28 and 0.92% on October 29, according to market reports, and the stock has now lost about 40% from its 52-week high of $225.64. Friday's selling combined a sweeping technology sell-off with several company-specific worries, from a rebuff by T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS) to doubts about the company's dependence on a single AI customer.

A crowded list of worries

The broad backdrop was harsh. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)'s 28.58% collapse and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)'s spending plans rattled investors in anything tied to AI infrastructure, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86%. SpaceX's fastest-growing Business is now AI computing, so it was squarely in the line of fire.

Company-specific news added to the pressure. T-Mobile chief executive Srini Gopalan said the carrier sees no room for a wholesale deal that would let SpaceX sell mobile plans over T-Mobile's network, according to market reports. Without such an agreement, SpaceX would need another carrier or its own infrastructure to launch a nationwide wireless service, though its existing satellite Partnership with T-Mobile continues. Market Analysis cited an estimate that a nationwide network could require $130 billion, against nearly $28 billion in spectrum deals so far.

Market reports also pointed to customer concentration. Third-quarter filings showed that a single AI computing customer, later identified as Anthropic, accounted for about 34.5% of quarterly revenue, and market reports said the contract can be canceled with 90 days' notice after early 2027. Market reports further cited a launch setback, the expiry of post-IPO lock-up restrictions on billions of shares, and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)'s view that China is the main regulatory obstacle to any Merger with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla, Elon Musk's other public company, slipped a more modest 0.87%.

From IPO to index

SpaceX priced its initial public offering on June 11, 2026, at $135 per share, valuing the company at about $1.77 trillion, and began trading on the Nasdaq on June 12, according to market reports. The stock closed its first day at $161, up 19%. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) led the deal.

The company entered the Nasdaq-100 under a fast-entry rule just 15 trading days after listing, and it appears in the holdings of the iShares Russell 1000 ETF. It is not in the S&P 500, which kept rules requiring 12 months of trading and four consecutive profitable quarters. Public investors hold Class A shares with one vote each, while Class B shares held by insiders carry 10 votes each, giving Musk roughly 82% to 85% of the voting power.

What SpaceX does

SpaceX runs three businesses. Its Space segment provides launches with Falcon rockets and is developing Starship. Connectivity is Starlink, the satellite internet service. The newest and now largest segment, called Super Intelligence, rents AI computing capacity to customers and includes the coding tool maker Cursor, which SpaceX acquired.

A blockbuster quarter

Third-quarter results, reported October 20, were striking. Revenue rose about 161% to $14.6 billion, and Net Income was $4.4 billion, the company's first profit as a public company, according to market reports. Earnings Per Share of $0.35 compared with a consensus of $0.10, according to market data. Gross Margin reached 62.4%.

Super Intelligence revenue jumped to $7.56 billion from $2.56 billion in the second quarter, overtaking Starlink, whose revenue rose to $5.25 billion. Starlink added 1.6 million consumer subscribers to reach 13.6 million. Space revenue was $1.77 billion. Capital spending was $19.6 billion in the quarter, and management expects $35 billion to $40 billion in the current quarter as it targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of computing capacity by year end. The company is aiming for an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by December.

The shares rose 7.8% the day after the report but had fully reversed those gains within days.

Valuation

With a Market Value of about $1.83 trillion, SpaceX is worth more than Tesla. Market data shows no trailing P/E, reflecting losses earlier in its history. Annualizing the third quarter's revenue implies roughly $58 billion a year, putting the stock at about 31 times that run rate, a steep multiple even for a fast grower. Market data put the consensus analyst price target at about $245, with JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) at $500, Barclays at $300 and Needham at $250, all with positive ratings, while HSBC rates the shares Hold.

The bull case

Bulls see a company with three dominant franchises and an AI business growing at extraordinary speed. Chief financial officer Bret Johnsen said that "at current pricing, new compute deployments are generating a payback of less than a year." Starlink continues to add customers, and the launch business has no close rival at scale. A combination with Tesla could add further strategic options.

The bear case

Bears worry that more than a third of revenue comes from one cancellable customer, that capital spending is rising sharply, and that a nationwide wireless ambition could prove costly without a carrier partner. Lock-up expirations add supply, merger talk raises governance and regulatory questions, and Musk's voting control limits outside shareholders' influence. Market reports also noted that a Ukrainian defense contractor said it can complete missions without SpaceX satellite services, and that chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell sold 342,170 shares in September at an average of $153.57 under a pre-arranged trading plan, well above where the stock trades today.

Lock-Up Releases and the IPO Price

Investors will watch for further lock-up releases, progress on the Tesla special committees, any new AI computing customers that reduce reliance on Anthropic, and Starship flight results. Whether SpaceX can hold its $135 IPO price is likely to be the near-term test of sentiment.