Key Highlights

  • RUM Group shares are trading down 4.95% at $5.67 versus a prior close of $5.96.
  • The stock rallied 16.63% on Wednesday after third quarter results.
  • Revenue was a record $96.6 million, up 290%.
  • Fourth quarter Revenue guidance is $88 million to $94 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time at $4.4 million.

RUM Group (NASDAQ:RUM), formerly Rumble, is trading down 4.95% at $5.67, giving back part of Wednesday's 16.63% rally to $5.96. Third quarter revenue was a record $96.6 million, up 290% and above the $87 million to $93 million guidance range, but the fourth quarter guide is lower.

Record Quarter

Quake AI contributed $68.2 million, more than 70% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was positive for the first time at $4.4 million. The net loss was $91.7 million, or $0.19 per share, driven mainly by $85.8 million of non-cash amortization and depreciation. Cash fell to $134.4 million.

Management said the third quarter included non-recurring items, including a little over $3 million of accelerated revenue from a barter agreement, so the quarter would otherwise have been near the top of guidance.

Fourth Quarter Guide

Fourth quarter revenue guidance is $88 million to $94 million, below the third quarter. It is the last quarter of the fixed 2025 H100 contracts, with some small revenue impact as clusters transition to renewal.

GPU Cloud Details

Quake AI runs about 22,000 GPUs at 85% utilization and had adjusted EBITDA of $23.5 million, a Margin of roughly 34%. Most H100 contracts roll off by the end of the first quarter of 2027. Management expects significantly higher renewal rates, saying prevailing H100 market rates have a 2-handle, and plans a mix of short durations, fixed pricing with spot upside and prepayments.

Buildout Slips

A portion of the 250 megawatt buildout is expected to slip beyond 2027, while some is still targeted for 2027. Management is in early talks with its Maysville customer on an alternative, more financeable path. Funding is expected to come largely from customer prepayments plus debt, with no Capital spending guidance given. Tougher Data Center financing is behind the delays.

Contract Renewals and Financing Decide the Next Move

After a 16.63% jump, the shares trade on what happens when H100 contracts roll off. Investors will watch renewal pricing against the 2-handle comment, fourth quarter revenue against the $88 million to $94 million range and how the buildout is financed with cash at $134.4 million.

The timing of the Maysville alternative is another marker.