Dermapharm Holding SE (ETR:DMP) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.9% to €34.70 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of €299m coming in 6.7% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of €1.16, in line with analyst appraisals. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Dermapharm Holding  earnings-and-revenue-growth

Taking into account the latest results, Dermapharm Holding's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be €1.17b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 31% to €2.02. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.07 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The average price target fell 12% to €50.13, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Dermapharm Holding at €58.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €41.50. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Dermapharm Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Dermapharm Holding.



The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Dermapharm Holding's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Dermapharm Holding's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Dermapharm Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified  3 warning signs for Dermapharm Holding (1 is potentially serious)  you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.