Geopolitics and Energy: Trump Says He Doesn't Care If Iran Talks End; Oil Spikes 4% Then Pulls Back; Gold at $4,554

Trump says he doesn't care if Iran negotiations are over, sending oil jumping more than 4% before pulling back. WTI is at $91.13, down 1.12%, and Brent at $93.98, down 1.05%, Tuesday morning after the intraday spike on Monday. Iran threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz as U.S.-Iran military exchanges continued, sending Brent as high as $97.32. The 60-day MOU negotiated by both sides still awaits  signature. Tehran halted nuclear talks Monday and threatened a full Hormuz blockade. Gold at $4,554.70, up 1.07%. Silver at $77.02, up 2.35%.

  • Trump's statement removes the diplomatic urgency that has driven oil's decline from its April peak above $115; any formal breakdown in talks would reverse oil's Tuesday pullback rapidly.
  • Iran's threat to completely close Hormuz, not just restrict traffic, is a material escalation beyond its current posture of partial blockade.
  • Risk note: oil is being pulled in two directions simultaneously; the net result is extreme intraday Volatility that will persist until a deal is signed or talks formally collapse.
  1. Markets: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Set Records Monday; Futures Lower Tuesday; Bitcoin Slides as Strategy Sells BTC

The S&P 500 closed at 7,600 on Monday, up 0.27%, a record. The Nasdaq closed at 27,087, up 0.42%, crossing 27,000 for the first time. Ninth consecutive week of gains. Technology added over 2% and Energy nearly 2%. Tuesday pre-market futures are lower. The VIX is up 4.77% to 16.05. Bitcoin fell 3.89% to $70,496.79 as Strategy Inc. sold 32 BTC for $2.5 million, its first Bitcoin sale since 2022, to fund preferred stock dividends. Bitcoin now sits 41% below its October 2025 all-time high. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) rose 2.28% to $460.52 Monday ahead of the Build 2026 conference today.

  • The ninth consecutive weekly gain is the longest winning streak since before the Iran war began; the VIX rising 4.77% signals Options traders are pricing elevated risk around today's JOLTS data and tonight's Palo Alto Networks print.
  • Alphabet's stock slipped in extended trading Monday despite the $80 billion raise announcement, reflecting dilution concerns from existing shareholders.
  • Risk note: Trump's indifference to Iran talks, a spiking VIX, and futures lower on a day with JOLTS and a major Earnings print creates an asymmetric Tuesday setup where negative surprises carry disproportionate impact.
  1. AI Capital-markets/">Capital Markets: Anthropic Files for IPO at $965 Billion; Alphabet Raises $80 Billion with Berkshire as Anchor

Anthropic confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO on June 1, edging ahead of OpenAI in the race to public markets. The company did not disclose size or terms. It last raised $65 billion at a $965 billion Post-Money Valuation in late May. At close to $1 trillion, Anthropic would vault to the top tier of the S&P 500. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said he is "not focused on the timing" of OpenAI's own IPO.

Separately, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) announced Equity offerings totalling $80 billion to fund AI compute infrastructure. The raise includes $30 billion in underwritten public offerings, a $40 billion at-the-market program beginning Q3 2026, and a $10 billion private Placement from Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) at $351.81 per Class A share and $348.20 per Class C share. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) are joint book-running managers. Alphabet revised its 2026 capex to $180 to $190 billion. Berkshire had been building its Alphabet position since Q3 2025 with a prior stake worth approximately $20 billion.

  • The IPO market has raised $87.5 billion through May 26, the highest year-to-date total since 2021; Anthropic's filing adds to a pipeline already including SpaceX (June 12), OpenAI (September), Quantinuum, Liftoff, and Innio this week.
  • "The combined Demand for capital from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic will be so considerable that it is likely to create disruptions in the capital markets, so going early will be a great advantage."
  • Risk note: when audited frontier AI financials become public, institutional investors will scrutinise Revenue durability, compute costs, and the path to sustained profitability at close to $1 trillion valuations.
  1. Economic Data: ISM Manufacturing-pmi/">Manufacturing PMI Hits Four-Year High at 54.0; Iran War Fracturing Supply Chains

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 in May from 52.7 in April, the highest since May 2022, beating the 53.0 consensus. Manufacturing has now grown for five straight months. New orders rose to 56.8 from 54.1. The Iran war was mentioned in 42% of manufacturer comments. Prices paid at 82.1, near multi-year highs. Supplier deliveries at 60.6 for a sixth consecutive month of slowing performance. Employment contracted for the 32nd straight month. Diesel averaged $5.40 per gallon nationally.

  • Manufacturers of transportation equipment said the "Iran conflict is starting to directly and negatively Impact cost of supply chain"; machinery makers cited "shipment delays and uncertainties."
  • The expansion is partly driven by front-loading orders to build inventories against supply disruptions, a pull-forward effect that could reverse sharply once buffers are rebuilt.
  • Risk note: "The durability of this manufacturing upturn remains in doubt," with 69% of manufacturer comments negative and the medium-term demand outlook still shaky.
  1. Monday Earnings and Stock Movers: Optimum +75%, Fluence +44%, HPE +30% After Hours, MGM +16%, Credo -12% After Hours, FedEx -18%

AI Infrastructure and Restructuring: Optimum Communications (NYSE:OPTU) surged 76.24% after CSC Investments II raised $500 million and launched a cash tender offer for up to 120 million Class A shares at $2.50 each versus a prior close of $0.658, as part of negotiations over $21.8 billion in Funded Debt. Fluence Energy (NASDAQ:FLNC) surged 43.80% after being named a key partner in Nvidia's (NASDAQ: NVDA) Vera Rubin AI data centre reference architecture alongside Siemens (OTC: SIEGY), validating its $10.1 billion order Backlog. CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) gained 13.96% on its first Vera Rubin NVL72 deployment; Russell 3000 inclusion June 27.

After-Hours Earnings: Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) surged approximately 30% on Q2 earnings and guidance beat with networking revenue up 148%. Credo Technology (NASDAQ:CRDO) fell nearly 12% despite Q4 EPS of $1.16 beating estimates and revenue of $437 million up 157% year over year, as GAAP Margin/">Operating Margin fell from 36.8% to 35.7%.

Corporate Events: MGM Resorts (NYSE:MGM) surged 16.08% to $50.69 after Barry Diller's People Inc. submitted a non-binding all-cash proposal at $48.30 per share, valuing it at approximately $18 billion. CDW (NASDAQ:CDW) gained 12.38% on a $1 billion buyback and JPMorgan upgrade to Overweight. CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) fell 5.77% after a rival launched competing Bloomberg-linked Index Futures.

  • Fluence Energy and CoreWeave surging on Nvidia Vera Rubin news confirms AI infrastructure spending is cascading into energy storage and cloud infrastructure.
  • Credo's decline despite triple-digit revenue growth illustrates that margin compression is punished severely regardless of headline growth.
  • Risk note: MGM's Takeover bid is non-binding; People Inc. has not secured financing and MGM's board has not endorsed the proposal.
  1. Microsoft Build 2026 Conference Begins Today; Copilot and OpenClaw Agentic Framework in Focus

Microsoft's Build 2026 Developer Conference runs June 2-3 in San Francisco with Satya Nadella's keynote expected to centre on Copilot's evolution and the OpenClaw agentic AI framework. MSFT carries a consensus "Strong Buy" with a price target of $553.91, over 20% upside from Monday's $460.52 close. Build is the primary venue for Azure AI and Copilot roadmap disclosures. With Anthropic filing for an IPO and Alphabet raising $80 billion for AI compute, any signal from Microsoft on its Azure capacity or OpenAI Partnership structure directly affects how investors value the entire AI infrastructure complex.

  • Microsoft's Azure AI revenue has been the fastest-growing cloud segment for four consecutive quarters; any guidance commentary at Build on Azure AI demand will be parsed as a forward indicator for the entire hyperscaler complex.
  • OpenClaw competes directly with Anthropic's Claude Code and Google's Gemini agents; the Build keynote will define which platform is gaining enterprise adoption momentum ahead of Anthropic's IPO roadshow.

Risk note: Microsoft is priced for continued AI execution; any sign of agentic AI monetisation delays or Azure capacity constraints would be disproportionately negative.

  1. Today's Catalysts: Palo Alto Networks Tonight, JOLTS at 10:00 AM ET, Cleveland Fed's Hammack at 8:55 AM ET

Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) reports Q3 fiscal 2026 after the close tonight; consensus EPS $0.43 on a $229.9 billion market cap. Management commentary on platformisation adoption and AI-driven threat detection will determine whether Cybersecurity confirms the broader software recovery.

JOLTS Job Openings for April releases at 10:00 AM ET; consensus 6.9 million, unchanged from March. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at 8:55 AM ET, the first Fed official to speak publicly since Warsh was sworn in, making her remarks the most closely watched Fed commentary of the week. Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) reports tomorrow after the close, the most important AI chip print of the week.

  • PANW's platformisation strategy is a direct test of whether enterprise security budgets are consolidating around fewer vendors under AI-driven cost pressure.
  • JOLTS at 6.9 million would confirm labour market resilience; a print above 7.2 million would reduce rate cut probability while below 6.5 million would signal the first meaningful labour market softening of 2026.
  • Risk note: Hammack at 8:55 AM ET, JOLTS at 10:00 AM ET, and PANW after the close compress three market-moving catalysts into a single Tuesday session.