Memory chip stocks are rewriting market history, Salesforce and Marvell report tonight, and Iran deal optimism keeps equities near records. S&P 500 futures up 0.06% at $7,541.50, Nasdaq futures up 0.13% at $30,112.00, Dow futures up 0.09% at $50,595.00, VIX up 2.53% to 17.01.

  1. Geopolitics and Energy: U.S. and Iran Develop 60-Day Ceasefire Framework; Hormuz to Be De-Mined as U.S. Military Strikes Continue

The U.S. and Iran have developed a framework extending the ceasefire 60 days, with Hormuz to be de-mined and reopened under Phase one while nuclear issues are deferred to Phase two. Trump said "Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly." A senior Iranian source confirmed Tehran has not agreed to hand over enriched uranium. The U.S. military announced strikes against Iranian positions on May 25 even as negotiations continued. Rubio said "this problem will be solved, one way or the other." WTI at $91.98, down 2.03%. Brent at $97.99, down 1.60%. Gold at $4,511.00, up 0.19%. Silver at $77.21, up 0.78%.

  • The deal structure excludes nuclear issues from Phase one, reducing the chance of a single sticking point collapsing the entire framework.
  • WTI below $92 and Brent below $98 reflects market confidence the framework will hold, but U.S. military strikes continuing during negotiations signal neither side has fully stood down.
  • Risk note: the deal remains unsigned; similar moments of optimism in 2026 collapsed into renewed strikes; the market is pricing peace before it is certified.
  1. Semiconductors: All Three Major Memory Chipmakers Hit $1 Trillion Simultaneously; KOSPI Triggers Circuit Breaker

SK Hynix (KRX: 000660) topped $1 trillion Wednesday, jumping 14.9% to 1,680 trillion won, joining Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930), which crossed the milestone May 6, and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), which crossed Tuesday after surging 19% following UBS tripling its price target from $535 to $1,625. South Korea becomes the first country outside the U.S. to have two $1 trillion companies. The KOSPI rose 5.09% to a record 8,457.09, triggering a sidecar algorithmic Trading halt. Memory chip prices doubled in Q1 and are forecast to climb up to 63% in Q2. Micron up 245% year to date, SK Hynix up 215%, Samsung up 149%.

  • Targets raised for SK Hynix and Samsung by 18.8% and 14.6%, noting memory chip Demand is expected to exceed Supply through 2028.
  • Samsung and SK Hynix now account for half the KOSPI by market cap, raising concentration risk concerns.
  • Risk note: a slowdown in global data centre Investment or supply chain disruption could reverse the rally disproportionately given the index's concentration.
  1. Stock Movers: Zscaler -16%, Box -2%, Palo Alto and CrowdStrike -2%; Modine +14%; Semtech +8%; Insulet -9%

After Tuesday's close, Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS) tumbled 20% after hours after guiding Q4 Revenue of $875 million to $878 million, missing the $879 million consensus, even as Q3 EPS of $1.08 beat the $1.01 estimate. Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) and CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) each fell 2% in sympathy. Box (NYSE:BOX) slipped 2% after hours after guiding full-year EPS of $1.56 vs the $1.63 estimate despite a Q1 beat. Semtech (NASDAQ: SMTC) popped 6.5% after hours after Q1 EPS and revenue beat with strong forward guidance. Modine Manufacturing (NYSE:MOD) added 1% after hours, extending its 14% regular session surge on a $4 billion data centre cooling deal announcement. Insulet (NASDAQ:PODD) dropped 6% after hours after announcing a voluntary correction for insulin delivery pods due to a manufacturing issue that could result in insulin under-delivery to patients.

  • The guidance miss pattern now spans Intuit, Box, and Zscaler, three consecutive enterprise software disappointments in five trading days.
  • Zscaler's miss despite beating current results illustrates the asymmetric risk in software Earnings: cautious forward guidance now outweighs current beats.
  • Risk note: Insulet's pod correction involves a manufacturing issue that could result in insulin under-delivery to patients, a patient safety event, not just a financial one.
  1. Earnings: Salesforce and Marvell Report After the Close Tonight; Agentforce and Custom AI Chips Are the Key Variables

Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) reports Q1 fiscal 2027 after the bell, with consensus EPS of $3.13 on revenue of $11.06 billion. The stock is down 31.86% year to date. Agentforce ARR hit $800 million in Q4, up 169% year over year. Options are pricing an 8.7% move. Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) also reports, with management guidance of $2.40 billion in revenue, up 27% year over year. Marvell is up 100% year to date and builds custom AI chips for Amazon and Microsoft. Salesforce returned $14.3 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2026 on $14.4 billion in free Cash Flow and authorised a new $50 billion buyback in February.

  • Marvell's optical interconnect Business is growing more than 50% this fiscal year; its custom XPU business builds switching costs directly into hyperscaler infrastructure.
  • Risk note: three consecutive enterprise software guidance misses in five trading days, Intuit, Box, Zscaler, raise a structural question about AI-driven budget reallocation ahead of tonight's Salesforce print.
  1. Equity Markets: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Close at Fresh All-Time Records; VIX Rises Ahead of Tonight's Prints

The S&P 500 gained 0.61% to 7,519.12 on Tuesday, its highest close on record. The Nasdaq gained 1.19% to 26,656.18, also a record. The Dow lost 118.02 points to 50,461.68, dragged by BP's decline. The VIX rose 2.53% to 17.01, signalling options traders are hedging ahead of Salesforce and Marvell. Modine Manufacturing (NYSE: MOD) surged 14% on a $4 billion data centre cooling deal. May consumer confidence came in at 93.1, beating the 92.0 estimate but down from April's 93.8, with consumers citing prices, oil, and war with increasing frequency.

  • The S&P 500 has now set back-to-back record closes for the first time since before the Iran war began in February.
  • The VIX rising on a day futures are only marginally higher signals the options market is not fully comfortable with the record close.
  • Risk note: a guidance disappointment from Salesforce or Marvell tonight could interrupt the back-to-back record streak.
  1. Corporate Governance: BP Removes Chairman Albert Manifold with Immediate Effect; Shares Fall 9%

BP (NYSE:BP) removed Chairman Albert Manifold with immediate effect Tuesday after "serious concerns" related to governance standards, oversight and conduct. Ian Tyler was appointed interim chair. London-listed shares fell as much as 9%. Manifold had only been chairman since October. The UK Serious Fraud Office and Metropolitan Police both declined to comment. Morningstar described BP as having "the most volatile boardroom" of the oil supermajors, now on its third CEO and third chairman in under three years.

  • Amanda Blanc, senior independent director, said: "The board has been surprised and disappointed to learn of governance oversight and conduct issues it deems unacceptable and has taken decisive action."
  • Risk note: the SFO and Met Police declining to comment raises the possibility of ongoing criminal investigations that BP has not disclosed.
  1. U.S. Housing: FHFA and Case-Shiller Show Real Prices Falling for Seventh Straight Month; April New Home Sales Due Today

The FHFA House Price Index for March rose 0.1% monthly to a nominal record of 441.6, up 1.7% year over year, but the Inflation-adjusted real HPI fell 1.1% to its lowest since May 2024, the seventh consecutive month of annual real Depreciation. The Case-Shiller National Index for March rose just 0.7% year over year, fell 0.2% month over month, and saw more than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets post year-over-year price declines. April New Home Sales data is due today at 10:00 AM ET, with preliminary estimates showing a sharp drop from March's 178,000.

  • The gap between nominal record highs and seven consecutive months of real depreciation reflects the Iran war inflation shock eroding actual housing Wealth even as headline indices appear stable.
  • 30-year Mortgage rates above 7% continue to suppress housing turnover near multi-decade lows.
  • Risk note: if April new home sales confirm the preliminary drop, housing will have posted its weakest combined data week of 2026, adding a structural consumer wealth signal to an already stressed consumer picture.