Iran's IRGC declares safe Hormuz transit possible as the US and Iran near a 14-point MOU to end the war. A 30-day nuclear negotiation window, sanctions relief, and gradual strait reopening are on the table. Brent Crude falls sharply on deal hopes.

Key Highlights

  • IRGC says safe, stable Hormuz transit will be ensured with "threats neutralised and new protocols in place"
  • White House believes a 14-point, one-page MOU to end the war is within reach, per Axios
  • MOU would trigger a 30-day negotiation window on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and strait reopening
  • Trump pauses Project Freedom while warning of bombing "at a much higher level" if no deal is reached
  • Brent crude falls more than 10%; US futures, European equities, and sovereign bonds rally

IRGC statement and the Project Freedom pause

Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said on Wednesday that safe and stable passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be ensured, citing the end of what it described as "threats from aggressors."

The statement came hours after President Trump announced he was pausing Operation Project Freedom, the US Navy mission to guide stranded commercial vessels through the blocked waterway. The operation lasted barely 48 hours, with only two merchant vessels passing through before Trump halted it, citing "great progress" toward a "complete and final agreement" with Iran.

Secretary of State Rubio, speaking before the pause, noted that at least ten civilian sailors had died as a result of the conflict in the strait. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. Trump coupled the pause with a direct warning on Truth Social: if Iran does not agree to a deal, bombing will resume "at a much higher level and intensity than it was before." He added that the war "will be at an end" if Iran accepts the proposals, at which point the strait "will be open to all."

A 14-point memorandum takes shape

The White House believes it is nearing agreement with Iran on a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for nuclear negotiations, according to Axios, citing two US officials and two other sources. Washington expects Tehran to respond on several key points within 48 hours. Nothing has been finalised, but sources described this as the closest both sides have come to an agreement since fighting began in late February.

The MOU would declare an end to the war and initiate a 30-day negotiation period on opening the strait, limiting Iran's nuclear programme, and lifting US sanctions. Iran's Hormuz restrictions and the US port blockade would be gradually lifted during that window. If talks collapse, the US could restore the blockade or resume military action.

Nuclear terms and Iran's response

Under the proposed MOU, Iran would commit to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, pledge never to seek a nuclear weapon, and accept snap UN inspections. The enrichment moratorium duration remains contested: the US demanded 20 years, Iran countered with five, with a 12 to 15-year range the likely outcome. The US would commit to gradual sanctions relief and the phased release of billions in frozen Iranian Assets.

Iran's foreign ministry said it was "evaluating" the 14-article proposal. A Pakistan government official told that "the prospect of a proposal to end the war is very likely in the coming days." Pakistan brokered the April 8 ceasefire and has confirmed both sides are converging. China's role is equally significant. Beijing is the largest buyer of Iranian Crude Oil and has maintained active diplomatic contact with Tehran throughout the conflict. Reports suggest China may be encouraging Iran against further escalation ahead of a scheduled meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Trump.

Market reaction

Oil markets responded sharply to the de-escalation signals. Brent crude fell more than 10%, though it remains well above its pre-war level of around $70 per barrel. The Axios report on the MOU extended a broader risk-on move, with US stock Index Futures, European equities, and global sovereign bonds all rallying. The MOU's provisions remain largely conditional on a final agreement being reached, and the next 48 hours of Iranian signalling will be closely watched by energy and fixed income markets alike.