Geopolitics and Energy: U.S. and Iran "Mostly Agreed" on 60-Day MOU; Trump Has Not Signed; Missiles Continue; Bessent Sanctions Persian Gulf Strait Authority

Negotiators reached a 60-day MOU to extend the ceasefire and start nuclear negotiations; Trump has yet to give final approval. Iran's state television claimed Tehran agreed to open Hormuz to prewar traffic levels managed by Iran and Oman; the White House called it "a complete fabrication." Iran fired missiles at unidentified targets late Thursday. Iran also launched a ballistic missile toward Kuwait, intercepted by Kuwaiti forces; U.S. Central Command called it "an egregious ceasefire violation."

Five Iranian drones were intercepted in and around Hormuz. Bessent sanctioned Iran's "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" under "Operation Economic Fury" and warned Oman: "The U.S. Treasury will aggressively target any actors involved, directly or indirectly, in facilitating tolls for the Strait." Trump said: "They're getting clobbered. Their economy is in free fall. I don't care about the midterms." WTI at $87.96, down 1.06%. Brent at $92.66, down 1.12%.

  • Bessent said Trump has "several red lines" including Iran surrendering enriched uranium and abandoning its nuclear weapons programme.
  • Oman's ambassador assured Bessent there were "no plans for tolling the strait," one day after Trump said "Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we'll have to blow 'em up."
  • Risk note: the deal remains unsigned; both sides are simultaneously negotiating and firing missiles; oil's Friday decline could reverse instantly if Trump rejects the MOU.
  1. AI and Capital-markets/">Capital Markets: Anthropic Raises $65 Billion at $965 Billion Valuation, Surpassing OpenAI; OpenAI Targets September IPO

Anthropic raised $65 billion in Series H funding led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital, valuing the company at $965 billion, above OpenAI's $852 billion March valuation. Revenue run rate crossed $47 billion this month, up from $30 billion earlier this year. The round includes $15 billion of previously committed investments including $5 billion from Amazon. Strategic infrastructure partners include Micron (Nasdaq: MU), Samsung, and SK Hynix. Anthropic signed agreements with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) for up to five gigawatts of capacity, Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) for five gigawatts of TPU capacity, and SpaceX for GPU capacity at Colossus 1 and 2. Claude Opus 4.8 was released Thursday. OpenAI is preparing to file its confidential IPO prospectus in the coming days or weeks, targeting a September listing.

  • Claude is the first frontier AI model available on all three of the world's largest cloud platforms: AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure.
  • The three-way AI IPO race between SpaceX (June 12), OpenAI (September), and Anthropic (timing unconfirmed) will be the defining capital markets sequence of 2026.
  • Risk note: Anthropic's $965 billion valuation almost triples its February valuation of $380 billion; valuations at these levels leave little room for execution misses.
  1. Macro Data: PCE Hits 3.8%, Highest Since May 2023; GDP Revised Down to 1.6%

April PCE rose to 3.8% year over year from 3.5%, matching expectations and the highest since May 2023. Monthly PCE rose 0.4%, below the 0.5% forecast. Core PCE rose to 3.3% year over year from 3.2%, matching estimates. Monthly core PCE rose 0.2%, missing the 0.3% consensus. Q1 GDP was revised down to 1.6% annualised from the initial 2.0% estimate. Accelerating annual Inflation plus a downward GDP revision is a Stagflation signal, the worst outcome for Equity valuations and the most hawkish read for Warsh's Fed. Gold at $4,536.60, up 0.09%, paring losses after the data.

  • Monthly PCE and core PCE both came in below forecast, providing a modest offset to the annual acceleration.
  • Fed funds futures continue to price approximately 50% odds of a rate hike by December; the data confirms the direction of travel is toward tightening.
  • Risk note: if the Hormuz deal is signed and oil falls sharply, PCE could decelerate rapidly in May and June, potentially reversing the rate hike narrative entirely within 60 days.
  1. Earnings: Costco Beats on Membership; Dell Posts Record AI Results; Agilent, Dollar Tree, Best Buy and Hormel Surge

Costco (NASDAQ:COST) reported Q3 net sales of $69.15 billion up 11.6%, EPS $4.93 up 15%, comparable sales up 9.8%, digitally-enabled sales up 21.5%, and membership renewal rate at 92.2%. Total paid members hit 82.9 million. Stock fell 0.9% in the session, up 0.4% after hours. Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) reported record revenue, record earnings, and a massive AI server Backlog.

Agilent Technologies (NYSE:A) surged 16.90% to $135.42 after raising full-year earnings guidance. Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) surged 17.87% to $113 after Q1 EPS of $1.74 beat the $1.53 estimate, full-year guidance raised, and a DoorDash Partnership announced. Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) surged 15.80% to $74.74 after Q1 beat with comparable sales above guidance. Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL) surged 12.55% to $23.59 on a sixth consecutive quarter of organic top-line growth. Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) fell 5.47% to $307.88 after the Surface Transportation Board accepted Union Pacific's revised Merger application.

  • Costco's 21.5% digital comparable sales growth and 92.2% renewal rate held firm despite Iran war consumer pressure.
  • Best Buy's comparable sales above guidance is the most positive consumer electronics signal of the week, contrasting sharply with Intuit and Zscaler guidance misses.
  • Risk note: Costco gross Margin fell 21 basis points to 11.04%, reflecting Tariff and energy cost pressures that will need to be addressed in Q4 guidance.
  1. Markets: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Close at Records; Futures Little Changed as Traders Eye Iran MOU

The S&P 500 gained 0.58% to 7,563.63 on Thursday, a record close. The Nasdaq gained 0.91% to 26,917.471, also a record. The Dow gained 0.05% to 50,668.97. The Russell 2000 rose 0.57% to 2,936.57. The VIX fell 3.38% to 15.74. Friday futures are little changed. Gold at $4,536.60, up 0.09%. Silver at $75.72, down 0.25%.

  • The S&P 500 has closed at a record for two consecutive sessions and is up more than 12% year to date.
  • The VIX at 15.74 is its lowest since before the Iran war began in February, signalling the Options market has dramatically reduced geopolitical hedging.
  • Risk note: PCE at 3.8% challenges the benign inflation assumption underpinning the rally; any MOU breakdown would reverse both the oil decline and equity gains simultaneously.
  1. Technology: Meta Cloud "Definitely on the Table"; Wix Cuts 20% of Workforce Citing AI

Mark Zuckerberg said a Meta (NASDAQ:META) Cloud Computing Business is "definitely on the table," putting Meta in potential competition with AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. Meta's 2026 capex guidance is $115 to $145 billion directed at data centres and GPUs; a cloud business would monetise that buildout by selling compute externally. Wix (NASDAQ: WIX) CEO Avishai Abrahami announced a 20% global workforce cut citing AI productivity gains, extending a pattern spanning Meta (8,000), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) (30,000), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU) (17%), and now Wix.

  • Meta entering cloud computing would intensify hyperscaler competition at a moment when Snowflake committed $6 billion to AWS and Anthropic signed five-gigawatt agreements with Amazon and Google.
  • The AI layoff pattern is structurally distinct from past tech downturns: companies are cutting headcount while simultaneously raising capex to record levels.
  • Risk note: Zuckerberg's "definitely on the table" language is exploratory, not a confirmed launch commitment.
  1. Space: Blue Origin New Glenn Explodes on Launchpad; Amazon Kuiper Delayed; SpaceX Roadshow Begins June 4

An uncrewed Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its Cape Canaveral launchpad at approximately 9:00 PM ET Thursday during a hot-fire test. All personnel were accounted for. The rocket was being prepared to deliver 48 Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) Leo satellites into low-Earth orbit; the satellites were not integrated at the time. The explosion comes two days after NASA awarded Blue Origin a $188 million contract to land rovers on the moon, and less than a week after SpaceX's partially successful Starship V3 test. NASA will assess impacts on Artemis and Moon Base programs. Bezos posted: "Very rough day, but we'll rebuild whatever needs rebuilding and get back to flying." Musk responded: "Most unfortunate. Rockets are hard."

  • Blue Origin has spent billions and roughly a decade developing New Glenn; Thursday's explosion is the most significant setback to date and directly widens SpaceX's lead heading into its June 4 roadshow.
  • Amazon's Kuiper broadband constellation depends on New Glenn for launch capacity; the explosion delays deployment at a moment when Starlink is accelerating using Starship.
  • Risk note: the explosion arrives six days before the SpaceX roadshow begins; investors evaluating SPCX will now have a direct demonstration of the competitive gap between SpaceX and its nearest U.S. heavy-lift rival.