Trump says the Iran war is "now complete," but Israel says it is not party and IDF stays in Lebanon. Oil fell below $80 for the first time since March; gold hit a one-week high. G7 opens in Evian, with Warsh's first FOMC meeting also this week. Friday: Dow +0.70%, S&P +0.50%, Nasdaq +0.31%.

1. Iran Deal's Fine Print: Israel Not Party, IDF Stays in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria "Security Zones"; Geneva Signing Friday; WTI Below $80

Trump declared the U.S.-Iran war "now complete" Sunday night, authorizing a toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the U.S. naval blockade; the deal is set to be signed Friday in Geneva. Israel, however, is not party to the agreement; Israeli Defense Minister Katz said the IDF stays in "security zones" in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria and will retaliate if Iran attacks via Lebanon. Gharibabadi tied 60-day nuclear talks to the release of frozen Iranian funds, which the U.S. dismissed; Trump told the New York Times the U.S. could strike again if talks fail. Iran's Mehr News said Hormuz reopening is "subject to Iranian arrangements." WTI fell 5.11% to $80.54, below $80 for the first time since March; Brent fell 4.66% to $83.26.

  • The 60-day window frames this as a pause rather than a resolution; the nuclear talks and frozen-funds dispute remain the structural issues that could reignite the conflict regardless of Friday's signing.
  • Risk note: the gap between Trump's "toll-free opening" framing and Iran's "subject to arrangements" caveat means today's entire oil, energy, and travel repricing rests on an unconfirmed timeline, and Israel's non-participation keeps Lebanon a live flashpoint into Friday's signing.

2. G7 Opens in Evian: Iran Deal on the Table, Zelenskiy Proposes Putin Talks, Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on French Wine; Warsh's First FOMC Also This Week

The G7 summit opened in Evian with Iran, Ukraine, and AI on the agenda. Zelenskiy proposed face-to-face talks with Putin, wanting Europe to take a larger role given U.S. focus on Iran. Trump threatened 100% tariffs on French wine unless Paris drops its digital tax on U.S. tech firms. Altman and Amodei are among executives invited to an AI session. The summit runs through Wednesday, the same day Kevin Warsh delivers his first FOMC decision and dot plot as Fed chair, at 2 PM ET on June 17; CME FedWatch prices a 97-98% probability of a hold at 3.50-3.75%.

  • The G7-FOMC overlap means Wednesday is a single-day convergence of geopolitical and monetary policy signals; Warsh's tone, not the widely expected hold itself, is what markets will trade on.
  • Risk note: the wine tariff threat on day one shows G7 unity on Iran can coexist with fresh US-Europe trade friction, a second front for markets this week that could offset today's peace rally in European equities.

3. Oil Below $80 for First Time Since March: Energy Stocks Tumble, Airlines and Cruises Surge

Energy stocks fell broadly: APA (NASDAQ: APA) and Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) both dropped more than 3.5%, Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) and EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) fell 3%, and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) both fell more than 2.5%. Travel stocks rallied: United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL) rose more than 5%, Delta (NYSE: DAL) gained 4%, Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE: NCLH) and Carnival (NYSE: CCL) each gained 4.5%, and Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) rose 4%.

  • This is the sharpest single-day energy-versus-travel repricing in the series, directly transmitting the oil crash into airline and cruise margins ahead of peak summer travel demand.
  • Risk note: the sharpest energy-versus-travel repricing in the series could reverse quickly if Hormuz reopening, "subject to Iranian arrangements," is delayed.

4. SpaceX +5% on Day Two; Firefly and Rocket Lab Rebound After Friday's Capital-Rotation Selloff on KeyBanc Upgrades

SpaceX (SPCX) rose 5% pre-market on day two, building on Friday's 19% debut gain. Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY) and Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) had fallen 19% and 10% Friday as the IPO drew capital from smaller space names; KeyBanc upgraded both to overweight Monday, lifting Firefly 5% and Rocket Lab nearly 4% pre-market.

  • The KeyBanc upgrades timed to Monday's rebound suggest analysts view Friday's selloff as a liquidity event specific to the SPCX listing, not a reassessment of the smaller names' fundamentals.
  • Risk note: the rebound suggests Friday's selloff was a one-time liquidity event, but a sustained SPCX rally could repeat the capital drain.

5. Gold Near One-Week High at $4,357, Silver +4.46%: The Peace Deal Lowers Fed Hike Odds, and That's Bullish for Gold

Gold rose 2.80% to $4,357.50, near a one-week high, and silver jumped 4.46% to $71.005; Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) rose 4% on the move. The mechanism has shifted: a peace deal lowers the odds the Fed must hike on war-driven inflation, and lower real-yield expectations are bullish for gold, a different driver than last week's dollar-weakness framing.

  • This reframing means gold's gains are now directly tied to Wednesday's FOMC dot plot; a hold with an unchanged or dovish 2027 path would reinforce today's move, while any hawkish dot shift would test it immediately.
  • Risk note: because gold is now trading on rate-path expectations rather than safe-haven demand, a hawkish Fed signal could reverse today's gains faster than further Iran news would.

6. Anthropic Suspends Fable 5 and Mythos 5 After Trump Administration Blocks Non-American Access; Hegseth Doubles Down on Pentagon Ban

The Trump administration ordered Anthropic to block all non-American access, including its own staff, to Fable 5 and Mythos 5, citing national security; Anthropic suspended both models entirely in response. Hegseth wrote: "Three months ago, @DeptofWar kicked @AnthropicAI out of our building, forever. Every passing day proves why that was the right move."

  • The total suspension, rather than a region-specific restriction, suggests Anthropic concluded a partial compliance posture was commercially and technically harder to implement than pausing both models globally.
  • Risk note: suspending both models entirely signals Anthropic is prioritising the dispute's resolution over commercial continuity, an escalation landing during its confidential IPO process that OpenAI's rival filing does not currently face.

7. Pre-Market Movers: Micron +7.5% on $1,500 Price Target; Paramount Skydance +5% on DOJ Approval; Fox Falls 12% on $160 Roku Bid

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) rose more than 7.5% after TD Cowen raised its price target to $1,500, calling memory "structural, not cyclical" in the AI buildout. Paramount Skydance (NASDAQ:PSKY) gained almost 5% after the DOJ approved its Warner Bros Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) acquisition Friday, though state hurdles remain. Fox Corporation (NASDAQ:FOX) fell 12% on a $160-per-share, 11%-premium cash-and-stock bid for Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU), which rose 2%.

  • Three unrelated catalysts, chip pricing power, media consolidation, and an M&A premium, moving simultaneously on a peace-deal day shows company-specific news competing with the macro story for investor attention.
  • Risk note: Fox's 12% drop on an 11% premium to Roku suggests the market views the deal as dilutive regardless of strategic logic.