1. Geopolitics and Energy: Hezbollah Will Not Withdraw from Lebanon; Oil Up 6% on the Week Despite Daily Pullback

WTI at $92.34 down 0.75% and Brent at $94.60 down 0.45% Friday, but WTI was on track for its first weekly gain in three weeks, up more than 6%. Hezbollah rejected the U.S.-brokered ceasefire proposal and said it would not withdraw troops from Lebanon, dashing near-term de-escalation hopes. A reported drone attack on Oman's Mina al Fahal crude terminal extended conflict risk beyond Hormuz to open-water export infrastructure. The 60-day MOU between the U.S. and Iran still awaits Trump's signature.

  • Iran has said Hezbollah must be included in any peace deal; Hezbollah's refusal to withdraw removes that prerequisite from the near-term path to a signed agreement.
  • Risk note: oil entering a weekend with no signed deal, a rejected Lebanon ceasefire, and an Oman terminal attack creates asymmetric upside risk for Brent before markets reopen Monday.
  1. Thursday Market Close: Dow Record 51,561; S&P 500 Top Gainers and Losers; Nasdaq Falls

The Dow surged 874.86 points to a record 51,561.93, up 1.73%, as progress toward ending the Iran war buoyed investor sentiment while Broadcom's (NASDAQ: AVGO) disappointment held the Nasdaq in check. S&P 500 rose 0.41% to 7,584.31. Nasdaq fell 0.09%. Russell 2000 gained 1.45%. VIX rose 2.34% to 15.76. Broadcom erased approximately $320 billion in market cap, one of the largest single-stock losses in megacap history, after Q3 AI chip guidance missed by roughly $1.2 billion. Ten of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher.

S&P 500 Top Gainers: Blackstone (NYSE: BX) +7.50% to $118.55 after capping withdrawals at 5% from its $45 billion flagship private Credit fund following investor attempts to pull out $4.5 billion, equivalent to 10% of the fund, in the second consecutive quarter of elevated Redemption requests; the market interpreted the cap as prudent Liquidity management rather than distress. Humana (NYSE: HUM) +6.80% to $349.80. Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) +6.61% to $88.33, boosted by its role as a SpaceX IPO retail access platform. Axon Enterprise (NASDAQ: AXON) +6.59% to $513.20.

S&P 500 Top Losers: Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) -12.59% to $418.91. Coterra Energy (NASDAQ: CTRA) -8.62% to $32.56. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) -7.74% to $996.00 in sympathy with Broadcom. Aptiv (NYSE: APTV) -5.08% to $72.92.

  • The Dow rising 1.73% while the Nasdaq fell 0.09% is the sharpest single-day divergence between the two indexes since the Iran war began.
  • Risk note: Broadcom's $320 billion wipeout on a guidance miss rather than a Revenue miss illustrates the asymmetric downside in megacap AI names priced for perfection.
  1. Capital Markets: S&P Global Blocks SpaceX from S&P 500; Nasdaq 100 Inclusion Still on Track

S&P Global reaffirmed existing index rules Thursday, ruling out fast-track S&P 500 entry for SpaceX. S&P said "exceptions to the financial viability, seasoning, and IWF requirements should not be granted solely based on market Capitalization." SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025 and does not meet the GAAP profitability requirement. Nasdaq has already changed rules to facilitate SpaceX's Nasdaq 100 inclusion. SpaceX is also eligible for the Russell U.S. Equity Indexes and FTSE Global Equity Index Series. Retail investors can now request shares via Robinhood and SoFi. Pricing expected June 11, trading June 12 as SPCX.

  • The S&P ruling prevents an estimated $30 to $50 billion in forced passive index buying from triggering on listing day; Nasdaq 100 inclusion remains on track and will still generate significant forced buying.
  • Risk note: SpaceX's S&P 500 exclusion reduces the index inclusion catalyst many retail investors priced into the $135 IPO price; the stock may open below $135 on June 12.
  1. IPO Watch: Quantinuum Ends Flat on Debut; $1.68 Billion Raised at $17.5 Billion Valuation

Quantinuum (NASDAQ: QNT), Honeywell-backed Quantum Computing company, opened at $68, about 13% above its $60 IPO price, but closed at $60.38, up just 0.6%. The IPO raised $1.68 billion through 28 million shares, valuing the company at approximately $17.5 billion. The U.S. government could provide up to $100 million from the Commerce Department for trapped-ion quantum computer development, receiving a minority equity stake.

  • The flat debut highlights the quantum computing dynamic: institutional backing is deep but public market conviction at current valuations is shallow.
  • Risk note: Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) fell 5.09% earlier this week on Quantinuum uncertainty; the flat debut may remove some overhang but the Spinoff valuation question remains open.
  1. Today's Data: Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 AM ET; Consumer Credit at 3:00 PM ET

Nonfarm Payrolls for May release at 8:30 AM ET; consensus 80,000, down from 115,000 in April. Unemployment rate expected at 4.3%. Average hourly Earnings expected +0.3% month over month, +3.4% year over year, down from 3.6% prior. Consumer Credit for April at 3:00 PM ET; consensus $18 billion versus prior $24.8 billion, a sharp deceleration in borrowing that would signal household financial stress. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose 6.1% Thursday. Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported U.S. corporate layoffs jumped 11% in May to 97,006; nearly 40% attributed to AI.

  • The jobless claims rise, Challenger layoffs surge, and light NFP consensus together represent the most concentrated single-week labour market deterioration signal of 2026.
  • Risk note: NFP at 80,000 with PCE at 3.8% forces the Fed to hold rates even as growth slows, the textbook Stagflation trap equities are not yet fully pricing.
  1. Thursday Stock Movers: Ciena -13.66% on Sell the News; Medtronic +5%; CrowdStrike Slumps on Expenses

Ciena (NYSE: CIEN) fell 13.66% to $535.63 despite record Q2 results with roughly 40% revenue growth and raised guidance, the stock's elevated valuation left it vulnerable to profit-taking. Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) gained 5.11% to $81.93 on its highest annual top-line performance in a decade and a BTIG upgrade. UnitedHealth (NYSE: UNH) got a boost after Bank of America raised its rating to Buy. CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) slumped after reporting an increase in quarterly operating expenses. Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) gained while Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), Micron (NASDAQ: MU) and Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) lost ground in the broader chip selloff.

  • Ciena beating estimates and raising guidance yet falling 13.66% is the clearest confirmation that sell-the-news dynamics now dominate AI infrastructure names at elevated valuations.
  • Risk note: Nasdaq futures down 1.07% Friday morning suggests the Broadcom and Ciena selloffs are not yet fully absorbed.
  1. Week in Review: ISM 54.0, JOLTS Five-Year High, ADP 110K, Services 53.9, Beige Book "Mixed"

ISM Manufacturing-pmi/">Manufacturing PMI hit 54.0 Monday, a four-year high. JOLTS April Job openings Tuesday jumped most in five years. ADP May payrolls Wednesday came in at 110,000. ISM Services PMI Wednesday hit 53.9, sixth straight month of expansion. Fed Beige Book Wednesday described conditions as "mixed" with Iran war Supply chain disruptions cited across multiple districts. Initial jobless claims Thursday unexpectedly rose 6.1%. Corporate layoffs jumped 11% in May, 40% AI-attributed. Week closes today with NFP consensus 80,000 and Consumer Credit consensus $18 billion.

  • Manufacturing and services both expanding, labour market resilient but decelerating, wages moderating, but PCE at 3.8% means the Fed cannot cut even as growth softens.
  • Risk note: if NFP prints at 80,000 or below, the U.S. will have added fewer than 100,000 jobs in consecutive months for the first time since the 2020 Pandemic.