Iran declared the ceasefire "meaningless" after fresh CENTCOM strikes; the IRGC targeted U.S. ships in the Strait of Hormuz and claims it is closed. S&P 500 futures +0.72%, Nasdaq 100 +1.2%, Dow +378 points. SpaceX prices today; Adobe reports tonight.

1. Iran: Ceasefire "Meaningless," IRGC Targets Hormuz Ships, Strait Claimed Closed; WTI -0.94% to $89.18

Iran has declared the ceasefire "meaningless." CENTCOM struck multiple Iranian targets at 5:15 PM ET Wednesday; the IRGC retaliated across U.S. bases in the region, Jordan intercepted 20 Iranian missiles, Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz completely closed and targeted U.S. ships with missiles and drones. The U.S. denied the strait is shut, Trump claimed America moved "millions of barrels of oil" through it on a "secret mission," and warned further strikes could target critical infrastructure. WTI fell to $89.18 (-0.94%) and Brent to $92.17 (-1.00%).

  • Qatar-mediated talks at a standstill; Iran conditions any deal on ending Israeli operations in Lebanon.
  • Oil falling despite the closure claim signals the market reads strike completion as near-term ceiling, not open-ended escalation.
  • Risk note: Hormuz closure validated by tanker diversion data changes every inflation, FOMC, and SpaceX IPO calculation simultaneously.

2. Federal Reserve and Inflation: PPI Beats at +1.1% vs +0.7% Consensus; 12-Month Wholesale Rate at 6.5%; Traders Price 60%+ Hike by December; Trump "I Love the Inflation"

May PPI beat sharply: +1.1% monthly versus the +0.7% consensus, lifting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate to 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. Core PPI ex-food and energy rose 0.4% monthly, slightly below the 0.5% estimate. Nearly 80% of the surge came from a 2.8% jump in final demand goods, the largest single-month increase in data going back to December 2009; gasoline rose 23.4% at the wholesale level. Traders now price near-100% probability of a Fed hold at June 16-17, no cuts through the year, and better than 60% probability the next move is a hike in December. Trump dismissed Wednesday's 4.2% CPI: "I love the inflation," saying it will "come down like a rock" after the Iran war. Gold at $4,105.20 (-0.68%), rebounding from a six-month low.

  • PPI at +1.1% on top of CPI at 4.2% yesterday confirms the inflation pipeline is broadening; the 6.5% 12-month wholesale rate is the most significant forward indicator for consumer prices in months.
  • Core PPI at +0.4%, slightly below estimate, is the one soft data point: energy is driving the headline, not underlying demand, which preserves Warsh's cover to hold next week.
  • Risk note: the tightening debate has shifted in 24 hours from "will the Fed hold" to "when does the Fed hike"; every equity duration trade faces reassessment heading into June 16-17.

3. ECB: Raises Rate to 2.25%, First Hike in Three Years; 2026 Growth Cut to 0.8%; "War in the Middle East Is Generating Inflation Pressures"

The ECB raised its benchmark deposit rate from 2.0% to 2.25% and its refinancing rate to 2.4% on Thursday, the first hike in nearly three years, citing the Iran war energy shock pushing Eurozone inflation above its 2% target. The ECB raised its 2026 inflation projection to 3.0% from 2.6% and cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.8% from 0.9%. "The war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures," the ECB said, adding that risks are "upside for inflation and downside for economic growth." Markets now price two more ECB hikes over the coming year; ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference is underway.

  • The ECB hiking into 0.8% growth and deteriorating German factory orders signals it is prioritising its inflation mandate over recession risk, the same narrow path Warsh faces at June 16-17.
  • Two more hikes priced over the coming year means the ECB tightening cycle is not a one-and-done move; European borrowing costs are heading structurally higher on the Iran war inflation thesis.
  • Risk note: if Lagarde signals a September hike at today's press conference, it directly hardens the case for a December Fed hike and reprices global duration risk simultaneously.

4. SpaceX: Prices After Close Today, $1.8 Trillion, 2x Oversubscribed; SPCX Trades Tomorrow; MSCI Early Inclusion Confirmed

SpaceX prices at $135 per share today after close, a $75 billion raise at a $1.8 trillion valuation and the largest IPO in market history, with the deal 2x oversubscribed and over $10 billion in institutional orders confirmed; MSCI announced early inclusion in its Global Standard Indexes. Some traders attribute part of the chip selloff to institutions liquidating semiconductor holdings to fund SpaceX allocation.

  • MSCI early inclusion creates a structural passive support bid on top of active demand.
  • The chip rebalancing thesis implies partial semiconductor reversal once SpaceX allocation is complete.
  • Risk note: at $1.8 trillion, SpaceX is priced at roughly 110x trailing revenue, assuming full optionality on xAI, orbital data centres, and Starship commercial operations at day one; any sequential disappointment in those businesses post-listing lands in a stock with no earnings history as a public company.

5. Oracle: -8% After Hours, Revenue and EPS Beat, Cloud Miss; $40 Billion Raise and $70 Billion FY2027 Capex

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) fell 8% after hours after beating revenue at $19.18 billion versus $19.09 billion and EPS at $2.11 versus $1.97, while cloud revenue missed at $9.91 billion against $9.99 billion and the company announced a $20 billion raise with FY2027 net capex at approximately $70 billion. Remaining Performance Obligations grew $85 billion in Q4 to $638 billion; FY2026 free cash flow turned negative at $23.7 billion.

  • The RPO surge to $638 billion, the largest single-quarter addition in Oracle's history, is the bull case.
  • Oracle's equity falls on dilution while chip equipment stocks rise 3-5% on the same capex number.
  • Risk note: if Adobe tonight also misses on AI revenue conversion, the software sector faces a capex-without-returns narrative.

6. Adobe: Reports Tonight, ADBE -30% in 2026; $5.81 EPS Consensus; Wall Street's AI-Eats-Software Test

Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) reports fiscal Q2 2026 after tonight's close with consensus of $5.81 non-GAAP EPS on $6.45 billion revenue and a 9.47% options implied move; the stock is down approximately 30% in 2026 after Anthropic's Claude Design launched in April and directly competed with Creative Cloud, and after a soft net new Digital Media ARR in Q1. Firefly AI ARR crossed $250 million annualized, more than doubling year-over-year.

  • Net new Digital Media ARR is the decisive variable; a second consecutive miss confirms the AI disruption thesis.
  • Firefly's $250 million ARR is growing rapidly but remains a fraction of Creative Cloud's multi-billion base.
  • Risk note: a Digital Media ARR miss tonight one day after Oracle's cloud miss establishes a pattern of AI capex accelerating while software revenue conversion disappoints.

7. Pre-Market Movers: Intel +5% Double Upgrade; Chip Equipment +3-5% on Oracle Capex; Navan +19%

Top Gainers

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) surged nearly 5% after Bank of America double upgraded from underperform to buy on rising CPU demand from agentic AI. Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) and Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) each climbed nearly 5%, KLA (NASDAQ: KLAC) rose 4%, and ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) added 3%+ on Oracle's $70 billion capex commitment. Navan gained 19% on a Q1 beat and above-consensus full-year guidance. Alcoa (NYSE: AA) added 2%; Morgan Stanley called Wednesday's 9.5% drop "overdone."

Notable Decliner

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) fell 8% on its $20 billion raise (full coverage in story 5).

  • Chip equipment rising while Oracle stock falls on the same capex number separates dilution risk from spend reality.
  • Intel's double upgrade on the agentic CPU thesis broadens AI hardware demand beyond GPUs into general-purpose compute.
  • Risk note: a soft Adobe print tonight could reverse the equipment rally by challenging AI spend justification.