Key Highlights

  • Palladium traded near US$1,137 per troy ounce during today's session, down 0.79%.
  • Palladium fell more than 5% on October 7 to about US$1,114 an ounce.
  • The metal is about 13% lower over a month and 27% lower over a year.
  • UBS forecast a market surplus as lower automotive demand outweighs reduced mined output.

Palladium Slips to About US$1,137

Palladium traded near US$1,137 per troy ounce during today's session, down US$9, or 0.79%, according to market data. It is down 3.28% on the week, 13.15% on the month, 31.21% year to date and 27.34% year on year, and far below its all-time high of US$3,440.76 in March 2022.

The One-Year Low and the Stated Reasons

On October 7, palladium fell more than 5% to about US$1,114 an ounce, with a drop below US$1,230 its lowest level since September 2025. Investment flows and a weaker demand outlook were cited as main pressures.

Higher energy prices feeding inflation and debt concerns have pushed government bond yields to multi-year highs, and higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding metals that pay no income.

Supply, Demand and the Surplus Argument

UBS forecast a market surplus, because lower automotive demand is expected to outweigh reduced mined output in South Africa, where costs are high and power supply is unstable, and in Russia, where trade risks continue. A Zimbabwean state-owned firm has a plan for a Darwendale mining project next year, a possible future supply source, while rapid AI infrastructure expansion could support demand over the longer term.

Palladium is used chiefly in catalytic converters for petrol vehicles, so car production, emissions rules and the shift to electric vehicles matter. A surplus forecast does not mean physical shortages cannot occur, since mine output is concentrated in a few places.

Palladium Producers: Russia, South Africa and the United States

Palladium comes mainly from Russia and South Africa, with smaller output in North America and Zimbabwe. Valterra Platinum (JSE:VAL) reported that its realized basket price rose 85% in the first half of 2026, with palladium up 59%, and its Mogalakwena mine produced 202,100 ounces of palladium. Refined output rose 25%, largely because pipeline metal was released, so some sales volume reflected stock being processed rather than new mining.

Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) reported record first-half revenue of R90 billion and 831,307 four-element PGM ounces in South Africa, and it also has United States PGM operations. Its exposure includes palladium, platinum, rhodium and gold, so metal moves partly offset each other.

Developers and Refiners

Platinum Group Metals Ltd (NYSE American:PLG) is a development-stage company with no production, and its Waterberg project awaits a construction decision tied to financing and concentrate offtake. Implats (JSE:IMP) holds 14.63% of the joint venture. Johnson Matthey (LSE:JMAT) refines and recycles platinum group metals and supplies emissions catalysts, so as a processor and customer its exposure differs from that of a mine. Platinum traded near US$1,699 an ounce today.

Calendar: Johnson Matthey and Sibanye Announcements Ahead

The next Johnson Matthey and Sibanye announcements will show how refiners and producers describe palladium demand. Possible supports include supply interruptions in South Africa or Russia, a rebound in car production and a fall in bond yields; possible pressures include a surplus, more electric vehicles, new mine supply and further rate or inflation concerns.

In short, palladium has fallen about 31% this year, and the debate is whether a forecast surplus outweighs the concentration of supply in a few politically exposed regions.