Key Highlights

● Palladium traded near $1,114-1,135 an ounce, up more than 3% on the day but still near a one-year low.

● The US Commerce Department set a final 132.83% anti-dumping duty and a 109.1% countervailing duty on Russian palladium.

● Palladium is down roughly 14% over the past month and roughly 31% over the past year, versus an all-time high of $3,440.76 in March 2022.

Palladium traded near $1,114 to $1,135 an ounce in its most recent session, up more than 3% on the day, even as the metal continues to trade near a one-year low reached in the preceding sessions. The series is a contract-for-difference reference rather than an official exchange settlement, and figures have varied by several dollars across sources; one point of comparison showed December NYMEX palladium at $1,137.00, down $8.80, while a South African producer's own site showed palladium at $1,122, down 2.94%, underscoring how thinly traded and volatile this market can be day to day.

What Has Been Weighing on Palladium

The decline that began in September has been attributed to steady investment outflows, a bearish long-term outlook, firmer US inflation raising rate expectations, and electric-vehicle adoption reducing catalytic-converter demand, with hybrid vehicles offering only a partial cushion. Supply, meanwhile, remains constrained by high operating costs, power instability in South Africa, and trade risk tied to Russia, a combination that hasn't been enough to lift prices meaningfully, suggesting investment and demand flows are currently the stronger factor. Palladium is down roughly 14% over the past month and roughly 31% over the past year, against an all-time high of $3,440.76 set in March 2022, a long fall from the peak that has pushed producers outside Russia to cut costs and output.

The Russian Palladium Duties

The most relevant verified policy development concerns US trade action. The Commerce Department preliminarily found dumping of Russian palladium with a margin of 132.83%, following a petition from Sibanye-Stillwater, and made a final affirmative anti-dumping determination at the same 132.83% rate on 28 April 2026. Commerce also set a final countervailing duty of 109.1%, with the duties taking effect only if the US International Trade Commission finds injury; the outcome of that injury finding hasn't been independently verified. Spot palladium was around $1,370 when the countervailing duty was announced, meaning the metal has fallen by roughly 17% since, suggesting the duties haven't prevented continued price weakness, though a direct causal link can't be established from the available sources. Nornickel, which holds about 40% of the global market, is reportedly expecting 2026 output of 2.415-2.465 million ounces, down from 2.725 million in 2025; US imports of Russian palladium rose to 27.6 tonnes in 2024.

Which US-Listed Companies Are Exposed

Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW) is the petitioner in the US anti-dumping case and operates the Stillwater mine in Montana, the only US-based primary palladium operation named in available sources. That mine has roughly halved production to about 300,000 ounces a year of platinum group metals during the price decline, alongside job cuts. Stillwater's status as the only US-based primary producer means duties on Russian imports matter more to Sibanye-Stillwater's US business specifically than to South African producers whose output is sold into global markets broadly; whether that translates into better US pricing or margins isn't shown by available data, and the group also carries South African operating risk, rand exposure, and exposure to other metals produced alongside palladium.

What Could Strengthen or Weaken the Outlook

If US duties remain in force and Russian supply falls, US market tightness could support palladium. If electric-vehicle adoption and investment outflows continue, and interest rates rise, weakness could persist. These remain conditional possibilities rather than forecasts.