Key Highlights

● NYMEX palladium futures were quoted at $1,172.50 per ounce on October 2, 2026, down 0.64%, near a one-year low.

● Palladium opened 2026 at $1,691.50, peaked at $2,195.50 on January 26 and fell to $1,177 by June.

● About 80% of palladium consumption comes from the auto industry, leaving it exposed to electric vehicle adoption and weak output.

● Sibanye-Stillwater guides US all-in sustaining costs of $1,520 to $1,580 per 2E ounce against a first-half basket price of $1,672.

NYMEX palladium futures were quoted at $1,172.50 per troy ounce on Friday, October 2, 2026, down 0.64%, near a one-year low. That leaves the metal close to the bottom of its recent range and tests the Margin cushion at Sibanye-Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW), whose US operations in Montana produce platinum and palladium together and guide to an All-In Sustaining Cost of $1,520 to $1,580 per ounce.

Trading Near the June Floor

Quotes varied. Spot palladium was quoted at a bid of $1,157 and ask of $1,197 late on October 4, with a daily range of $1,142 to $1,201, and at $1,186.96 early on October 2, up 1.3%. A reading of $1,320 for the December contract on one page conflicted with the same page’s 52-week low of $1,156 and is disregarded. Palladium traded in a band of roughly $1,150 to $1,200 at the end of last week.

The first half shows why the level matters. Palladium opened 2026 at $1,691.50, reached $2,195.50 on January 26 and fell to $1,177 by June, a nine-month low. Prices are back near that trough after a rally that did not hold.

Autos, Recycling and the Oversupply Worry

Weakness was linked to a stronger US dollar and elevated Treasury yields, which make dollar-priced metals dearer for foreign buyers, and to expected weakness in auto demand. Increased recycling is offsetting production declines, particularly from Russian mines. September US payrolls rose only 29,000 against expectations near 90,000, cutting odds of an October Fed rate increase, and the ten-year yield printed highs near 5.3%. Palladium is driven far more by industry than by investors.

Roughly 80% of consumption comes from autos, where palladium is used in catalysts for petrol-engine vehicles, so vehicle output and the shift toward battery electric cars matter. Market commentary points to a higher surplus risk and structural oversupply concerns, in contrast to platinum, where industry data project a smaller but continuing deficit. Supply comes from Russia, South Africa, North America and recycling. Initial Tariff expectations failed to materialize, leaving trade policy a source of uncertainty.

Sibanye-Stillwater’s Cost Range Becomes the Test

Sibanye-Stillwater reported first-half US 2E production of 137,930 ounces, down 2%, with East Boulder down 6% to 61,595 ounces. The average 2E basket price was $1,672 per ounce, 70% above the first half of 2025, or 27,438 rand. Guidance is 280,000 to 300,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,520 to $1,580 per ounce, or $1,360 to $1,420 including Section 45X tax credits.

The cost range is the key sensitivity. If palladium keeps falling and the basket price slips toward it, margins narrow, although the basket blends palladium and platinum, and platinum has held up better. The company sells in US dollars and reports rand figures, so exchange rates change how metal-price moves appear in reported profit.

Johnson Matthey, the London-listed catalyst maker and recycler, reported Clean Air sales of 2,123 million pounds at a 14.5% Operating Margin and PGM Services operating profit of 119 million pounds for the year to March 31, 2026. Lower metal prices can cut input costs for catalysts but reduce recycling earnings, so the effect is mixed. It said it would gain more than 25 million pounds if PGM prices stayed at then-current levels.

What Could Break the Range

Palladium could find support from a weaker dollar, lower yields, stronger vehicle output, tighter recycling flows or supply disruption from Russia or South Africa. Weakness could extend if electric vehicle adoption accelerates, auto production disappoints, recycling grows or the dollar keeps strengthening. Bank forecasts for year-end average from $1,350 to $2,200, a spread that underlines the uncertainty.

The data calendar includes Fed minutes on October 7, 2026, weekly jobless claims on October 8 and consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan on October 9. Monthly vehicle sales and production, Sibanye-Stillwater’s next operating update and Johnson Matthey’s half-year results are also in focus, along with CME settlement prices.